Nuclear Deterrence In South Asia

This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the South Asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the prevailing security environment in South Asia and offers unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral frameworks to stabilize peace and ensure deterrence stability in the South Asian region. Moreover, contending patterns of deterrence dynamics in the South Asian region are further elaborated as becoming inextricably interlinked with the broader security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region and the interactions with the United States and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As India and Pakistan are increasingly becoming part of the competing strategies exercised by the United States and China, the authors analyze how strategic uncertainty and fear faced by these rival states cause the introduction of new technologies which could gradually drift these competing states into more serious crises and military conflicts. Presenting innovative solutions to emerging South Asian challenges and offering new security mechanisms for sustainable peace and stability, this book will be of interest to academics and policymakers working on Asian Security studies, Nuclear Strategy, and International Relations.

This book examines the theory and practice of nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan, two highly antagonistic South Asian neighbors who recently moved into their third decade of overt nuclear weaponization. It assesses the stability of Indo-Pakistani nuclear deterrence and argues that, while deterrence dampens the likelihood of escalation to conventional—and possibly nuclear—war, the chronically embittered relations between New Delhi and Islamabad mean that deterrence failure resulting in major warfare cannot be ruled out. Through an empirical examination of the effects of nuclear weapons during five crises between India and Pakistan since 1998, as well as a discussion of the theoretical logic of Indo-Pakistani nuclear deterrence, the book offers suggestions for enhancing deterrence stability between these two countries.

This important and topical book examines the triangular relationship of China, India and Pakistan through the prism of nuclear deterrence. The author highlights the interplay and role of strategic culture, nuclear weaponisation and deployment, command and control, arms control, non-state actors and foreign policy issues which affect relations between the three countries. With two main purposes—a conceptual investigation into the notion of deterrence, and a study of the theory and practice of limited war—this book: - addresses the strategic, political and military dimensions of the role of nuclear weapons through examples of the only cases of nuclear weapon states having gone into armed conflict—the Cuban missile crisis, the Ussuri river clashes, and the Kargil conflict. - discusses the various pressures exerted on decision makers in the context of the notions of deterrence, the rational deterrence model, and a limited war under a nuclear umbrella. - evaluates all three countries with regard to their strategic culture, the role of nuclear weapons in their military strategy, the nature of public opinion and political rhetoric, responses to the various arms control treaties, and foreign policy choices. Based on a variety of sources, including interviews with key individuals in various sector, this is the first book-length study of the triangular relationship between China, India and Pakistan.

Hagerty analyzes how India and Pakistan interacted in diplomatic and military crises before their 1998 nuclear tests. He presents detailed studies of the January 1987 Indo-Pakistani crisis, precipitated by India's Brasstacks military exercises, and the 1990 confrontation over Kashmir. Hagerty concludes that relations between India and Pakistan in recent years support the argument that nuclear proliferation does not necessarily destabilize international relations and may even reduce the risk of war.

An important and critical re-evaluation of South Asia's post-tests nuclear politics, in contrast to other books, this volume emphasises the political dimension of South Asia's nuclear weapons, explains how the bombs are used as politico-strategic assets rather than pure battlefield weapons and how India and Pakistan utilise them for politico-strategic purposes in an extremely complex and competitive South Asian strategic landscape. Written by a group of perceptive observers of South Asia, this volume evaluates the current state of Indo-Pakistani nuclear deterrents, the challenges that the two countries confront in building their nuclear forces, the post-test nuclear doctrines of the two strategic rivals, the implications of Indo-Pakistani politics for regional cooperation, the role of two systemic actors (USA and China) in the region's nuclear politics and the critical issues of confidence-building and nuclear arms control.

The book aims to provide a comprehensive review of the evolution of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear programmes covering technological developments, political underpinnings and non-proliferation policies. It also covers post 1998 developments to include articulation of doctrines, establishment of command and control systems and operationalization of the nuclear capabilities as well as safety and security concerns surrounding Pakistan's nuclear assets.