Observations On The Market Of Stocks

This book collects important contributions in behavioral economics and related topics, mainly by Japanese researchers, to provide new perspectives for the future development of economics and behavioral economics. The volume focuses especially on economic studies that examine interactions of multiple agents and/or market phenomena by using behavioral economics models. Reflecting the diverse fields of the editors, the book captures broad influences of behavioral economics on various topics in economics. Those subjects include parental altruism, economic growth and development, the relative and permanent income hypotheses, wealth distribution, asset price bubbles, auctions, search, contracts, personnel management and market efficiency and anomalies in financial markets. The chapter authors have added newly written addenda to the original articles in which they address their own subsequent works, supplementary analyses, detailed information on the underlying data and/or recent literature surveys. This will help readers to further understand recent developments in behavioral economics and related research.

Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1.7, The FOM University of Applied Sciences, Hamburg, language: English, abstract: Especially after the 90ies, where the stock markets raised enormously, many private investors joined the stock market and were blended by abnormal profits and neglected possible losses. The same behavior could be observed before the Financial Crisis became reality. But each endless raising stock market would finally collapse, because stock prices are randomly and only driven by relevant news. The adjustment to the news is quickly. This is the theoretical argumentation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which will be evaluated in this paper. The author gives an overview about the EMH by explaining the basic principles and its mathematical formulation. The practical part evaluated the EMH on selected examples, where the theory could only be partly approved.

Stock Market Modeling and Forecasting translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a financial market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to external (such as company value and profitability) and internal forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent. The authors present work on both developed and developing markets in the shape of the US, Hong Kong, Chinese and Singaporean stock markets. Results from all these sources demonstrate the efficiency of the model framework in identifying significant influences and the quality of its predictive ability; promising results are also obtained by applying the model framework to the forecasting of major market-turning periods. Having shown that system-theoretic ideas can form the core of a novel and effective basis for stock market analysis, the book is completed by an indication of possible and likely future expansions of the research in this area.

Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, the bestselling guide to investing evaluates the full range of financial opportunities.