Opec In A Shale Oil World

RAMADy, Mahdi OPec in a sHALE oil world –where to NEXT? With PREFACE by Dr. Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and Executive Vice President , Saudi Aramco. "OPEC has played an important role since its founding and continues to do so, but it has to recognize that this role has now changed and the organization has to adapt to new challenges. This book provides some possible solutions" Abdulsamad Al Awadhi, former Kuwait National Representative at OPEC . "Authoritative, well-informed, and excellent account of the role of OPEC in managing the oil market, present, past, and future" Hassan Qabazard, former Director of Research Division , OPEC. ". The call for action by Mohamed Ramady and Wael Mahdy in this book makes it clear that time, and not oil, is the precious commodity that is running out fast on OPEC’s side", Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and EVP Saudi Aramco “OPEC is dead. Long live OPEC”. The organization is now going through a mid life crisis in its 54 years of existence trying to figure out where it goes next in a world where OPEC has been relegated from being the energy swing producer, and Saudi Arabia as the ‘Sultan of the Swing,’ to one where it now faces competition from both non- OPEC traditional well as non-conventional shale producers. The Authors examine how OPEC has had to come to terms with the reality that the earlier decades ‘call on OPEC’ has now been replaced by a ‘call on non-OPEC’ and that a new ‘swing’ has been identified- the producers of shale oil. Drawing upon the Authors combined academic and practical first hand insights on OPEC, the book discusses how a new OPEC paradigm has emerged following the oil price rout of 2014, whereby the organization’s principal concern is now protecting market share, without being in charge unlike earlier fleeting periods of the late 1970’s, which brought with it a lasting myth of the OPEC cartel. Mohamed Ramady is Visiting Associate Professor, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia; Wael Mahdi is Bloomberg OPEC Energy Correspondent.

In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.

In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.

This book gives information on the OPEC nations' changing roles in the world oil market as they expand to "downstream" activities. It provides an overview of the production capabilities and policies of major oil exporters and examines the refinery overcapacity crisis in the developed world.

In the early 1980s, industry and government took a hard look at the economics of extracting oil from vast deposits of shale that lie beneath the western United States. Oil prices subsided, and interest waned. With oil prices spiking and global demand showing no signs of abating, reexamining the economics of oil shale makes sense. In this report, the authors describe oil shale resources; suitability, cost, and performance of new technologies; and key policy issues that need to be addressed by government decisionmakers in the near future.

This first of two volumes of collected papers and essays charts the sequence of significant developments over the past 40 years of the most international of industries—that of gas and oil. Explained are the physical attributes of oil and gas resources, reserves, and supply in their economic and political settings, with an emphasis on the quantities. This book also explores the economic and political inputs to the global oil and gas industry’s organization and markets since the early 1960s and the consequences of a loss of control, not only for the industry itself, but also for the western world’s economy and its political stability.

Addressing the major issues arising from the power ascribed to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), this book reflects the bredth, expertise and multifaceted viewpoints of the contributors: members of OPEC itself, industry representatives, and scholars and energy specialists from the USA, Europe and the Middle East. Throughout the book, the authors look at the potential of OPEC, discernible trends in such crucial areas as global petroleum supply and pricing, and the international economic and political implications of both.