Peaks Spikes And Barrels

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon.

The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about emerging markets and the financial crisis (by Ayhan Kose); the research summaries are "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle" (by Cemile Sancak, Ricardo Velloso, and Jing Xing) and "Banking Crisis Resolution: Was this Time Different?" (by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia). The issue also lists the contents of the second issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 58 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during October-December 2010; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.

This book contains selected papers presented at the 3rd International Seminar of Contemporary Research on Business and Management (ISCRBM 2019), which was organized by the Alliance of Indonesian Master of Management Program (APMMI) and held in Jakarta, Indonesia on 27-29th November 2019. It was hosted by the Master of Management Program Indonesia University and co-hosts Airlangga University, Sriwijaya University, Trunojoyo University of Madura, and Telkom University, and supported by Telkom Indonesia and Triputra. The seminar aimed to provide a forum for leading scholars, academics, researchers, and practitioners in business and management area to reflect on current issues, challenges and opportunities, and to share the latest innovative research and best practice. This seminar brought together participants to exchange ideas on the future development of management disciplines: human resources, marketing, operations, finance, strategic management and entrepreneurship.

This paper explores the concept of global liquidity, its measurement and macro-financial importance. We construct two sets of indicators for global liquidity: a quantity series distinguishing between core and noncore liabilities of financial intermediatires and a corresponding price series. Using price and quantity indicators simultaneously, it is possible to distinguish between shocks to the supply and demand for global liquidity, and isolate their impact on the economy. Our results confirm that global liquidity conditions matter for economic and financial stability, and points to indicators whose regular monitoring could be valuable to policymakers.

Almost all of the messages that are received by the cerebral cortex from the environment or from the body's internal receptors come through the thalamus and much current thought about perceptual processing is based on sensory pathways that relay in the thalamus. This volume focuses on three major areas: the role of thalamocortical communication in cognition and attention; the role of the thalamus in communication between cortical areas; the hypothesis that much or all of the information relayed by thalamus, even to classical, pure "sensory" areas of cortex, represents a corollary message being sent simultaneously to motor centers. It presents a broad overview of important recent advances in these areas. * Provides a look at brain structures involved in perception and action * Includes summaries by leading investigators in the field * Presents recent advances in our understanding of brain functions