Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On U S Transportation

While every mode of transportation in the U.S. will be affected as the climate changes, potentially the greatest impact on transportation systems will be flooding of roads, railways, transit systems, and airport runways in coastal areas because of rising sea levels and surges brought on by more intense storms, says a new report from the National Research Council. Though the impacts of climate change will vary by region, it is certain they will be widespread and costly in human and economic terms, and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems. The U.S. transportation system was designed and built for local weather and climate conditions, predicated on historical temperature and precipitation data. The report finds that climate predictions used by transportation planners and engineers may no longer be reliable, however, in the face of new weather and climate extremes. Infrastructure pushed beyond the range for which it was designed can become stressed and fail, as seen with loss of the U.S. 90 Bridge in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

Climate affects the design, construction, safety, operations, and maintenance of transporta- tion infrastructure and systems. The prospect of a changing climate raises critical questions regarding how alterations in temperature, precipitation, storm events, and other aspects of the climate could affect the nation's roads, airports, rail, transit systems, pipelines, ports, and waterways. Phase I of this regional assessment of climate change and its potential impacts on transportation systems addresses these questions for the region of the U.S. cen- tral Gulf Coast between Galveston, Texas and Mobile, Alabama. This region contains multimodal transportation infrastructure that is critical to regional and national transportation services.

Despite increasing confidence in global climate change projections in recent years, projections of climate effects at local scales remain scarce. Location-specific risks to transportation systems imposed by changes in climate are not yet well known. However, consideration of these long-term factors is highly relevant for infrastructure components, such as rail lines, highways, bridges, and ports, that are expected to provide service for up many years. To better understand climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure and to identify potential adaptation strategies, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting is conducting a comprehensive, multiphase study of climate change impacts on transportation in the Central Gulf Coast region. This study, formally known as Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, is the first such study of its magnitude in the United States and represents an important benchmark in the understanding of what constitutes an effective transportation system adaptation planning effort. The Gulf Coast region was selected as the focal point due to its dense population and complex network of transportation infrastructure, as well as its critical economic role in the import and export of oil, gas, and other goods. The study is funded by the U.S. DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting and managed by FHWA. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has provided support for much of the climate science work. The Gulf Coast Study includes two phases: Phase 1— The study assessed likely changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and increasing severity and frequency of tropical storms. Phase 1 then explored how these changes could impact transportation systems. Phase 2 — The purpose of Phase 2 is to provide a more detailed assessment of the vulnerability of the most critical components of the transportation system to weather events and long-term changes in climate. This work is being conducted on a single metropolitan area—the Mobile, AL region —with the intention of making the processes used in the study replicable to other areas.

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

Climate Change Adaptation for Transportation Systems examines the international state of knowledge on climate change and weather and their potential impacts on the planning, design and serviceability of transportation networks. The book describes alternative frameworks for adapting to climate change in the planning, provision and management of transportation systems. It discusses methods and models for including climate and weather factors in planning and design for use in transportation asset systems under risk and uncertainty. Giving specific attention to road, rail, ports and harbors, the book provides users with the tools they need in decision-making approaches where there is uncertainty. Examines the impact of climate change and extreme weather on the performance and serviceability of transportation assets Explores the issues, methods, frameworks, models and techniques for assessing transportation systems' performance, including considerations for climate and the environment Provides case studies from around the world to illustrate methods, covering a wide range of climatic conditions, considerations and approaches for transportation planners

Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.