Potential Yields Of Major Crops For Chinese And Global Food Security Under Climate Change

This book analyzes potential yields of six major food crops - rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide using both qualitative and quantitative approaches to study both China’s and global food security under climate change. Firstly, it reviews previous studies on potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide to provide a detailed information of studying on China’s and global food security based on the product’s supply and demand of these crops. Secondly, average and top (national) yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 on global scale are employed to analyze their temporal and spatial variation trends and potential limits. Thirdly, the effects of global warming in climate change on both average and top yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 at global level are analyzed using regression model, and their differences between average and top yields among these crops are identified and compared. Fourthly, the yields and per capita quantity of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed in major producer-countries and the world are analyzed to assess the situation and trend of international trade for the products of these crops, respectively. Fifthly, potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide by 2030 are projected using both trend-regressed models and ARIMA models to estimate the per capita quantity of these crops based on the projection of world population and assess the status of Chinese and global food security in that future. Finally, it provides policy implications and advice on food security for China and the world directing food production by 2030 under climate change.

Abstract This chapter defines food security as the condition reached when a nation’s population has access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet its dietary needs and food preferences. It stresses China’s importance to global food security because of its population size. The chapter introduces the contents of the volume and then treats briefly food security in ancient and dynastic (211 bc–1912) China. It examines environmental stressors, such as population growth, natural disasters, and insect pests as well as imperial responses (for example, irrigation, flood control, storage and transportation systems). The chapter also briefly int- duces the Republican era (1912–1949) and compares environmental stressors and government responses then to those of the imperial period. Keywords Food system • Food security • Food production regions • Environmental stressors (Population growth • Natural disasters • Insect pests and Plant diseases • Deforestation • Climate change) • Irrigation systems • Flood control • Grand Canal 1. 1 The Problem of Food Security and Environmental Change Food is the material basis to human survival, and in each nation-state, providing a system for the development, production, and distribution of food and its security is a primary national objective. Many forces have influenced the food security of peoples since ancient times, with particular challenges from natural disasters (floods, famines, drought, and pestilence) and growing populations globally.

Unless action is taken now to make agriculture more sustainable, productive and resilient, climate change impacts will seriously compromise food production in countries and regions that are already highly food-insecure. The Paris Agreement, adopted in December 2015, represents a new beginning in the global effort to stabilize the climate before it is too late. It recognizes the importance of food security in the international response to climate change, as reflected by many countries prominent focus on the agriculture sector in their planned contributions to adaptation and mitigation. To help put those plans into action, this report identifies strategies, financing opportunities, and data and information needs. It also describes transformative policies and institutions that can overcome barriers to implementation. The State of Food and Agriculture is produced annually. Each edition contains an overview of the current global agricultural situation, as well as more in-depth coverage of a topical theme."

Continued population growth, rapidly changing consumption patterns and the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation are driving limited resources of food, energy, water and materials towards critical thresholds worldwide. These pressures are likely to be substantial across Africa, where countries will have to find innovative ways to boost crop and livestock production to avoid becoming more reliant on imports and food aid. Sustainable agricultural intensification - producing more output from the same area of land while reducing the negative environmental impacts - represents a solution for millions of African farmers. This volume presents the lessons learned from 40 sustainable agricultural intensification programmes in 20 countries across Africa, commissioned as part of the UK Government's Foresight project. Through detailed case studies, the authors of each chapter examine how to develop productive and sustainable agricultural systems and how to scale up these systems to reach many more millions of people in the future. Themes covered include crop improvements, agroforestry and soil conservation, conservation agriculture, integrated pest management, horticulture, livestock and fodder crops, aquaculture, and novel policies and partnerships.

Roughly a billion people around the world continue to live in state of chronic hunger and food insecurity. Unfortunately, efforts to improve their livelihoods must now unfold in the context of a rapidly changing climate, in which warming temperatures and changing rainfall regimes could threaten the basic productivity of the agricultural systems on which most of the world’s poor directly depend. But whether climate change represents a minor impediment or an existential threat to development is an area of substantial controversy, with different conclusions wrought from different methodologies and based on different data. This book aims to resolve some of the controversy by exploring and comparing the different methodologies and data that scientists use to understand climate’s effects on food security. In explains the nature of the climate threat, the ways in which crops and farmers might respond, and the potential role for public and private investment to help agriculture adapt to a warmer world. This broader understanding should prove useful to both scientists charged with quantifying climate threats, and policy-makers responsible for crucial decisions about how to respond. The book is especially suitable as a companion to an interdisciplinary undergraduate or graduate level class.

Agriculture in Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change due to rising aridity, declining availability of water resources for irrigation, and low adaptive capacity. We use climate data from CMIP5 with RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions and the DSSAT crop model to investigate how yields of key crops in Central Asia will be affected by climate change. We distinguish changes in yields between spring and winter plantings, between irrigated and rainfed crops, and between crops grown with high and low amounts of fertilizer. The results suggest that countries (and areas within countries) that either have moderate summers or grow a number of crops in a relatively cold winter will benefit from climate change, while countries that grow many of the crops in the summer will experience losses.

As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world's population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.Using various modeling techniques, the authors project 15 different future scenarios for food security through 2050. Each scenario involves an alternative combination of potential population and income growth and climate change. The authors also examine the specific test case of a hypothetical extended drought in South Asia, to demonstrate the possible effects of increased climate variability on a particular world region. They conclude that the negative effects of climate change on food security can be counteracted by broad-based economic growthparticularly improved agricultural productivityand robust international trade in agricultural products to offset regional shortages. In pursuit of these goals, policymakers should increase public investment in land, water, and nutrient use and maintain relatively free international trade. This inquiry into the future of food security should be of use to policymakers and others concerned with the impact of climate change on international development.