Practical Schedule Risk Analysis

Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level: * Why is the duration uncertain? * And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution? These are then progressively elaborated: * How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date? * How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually? * How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all? Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current commercial software. Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas, information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project schedule.

Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.

This two volume collection of David Hulett's Practical Schedule Risk Analysis and Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides a rigorous and detailed guide for the project risk specialist to two of the three key elements of the project triangle: time and cost. With detailed worked examples and copious illustrations, this two-volume set offers the definitive guide to these critically important aspects of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.

Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.

The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule’s risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project’s baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle. Consequently, a project schedule should especially be considered as nothing more than a predictive model that can be used for resource efficiency calculations, time and cost risk analyses, project tracking and performance measurement, and so on. In this book, the three dimensions of dynamic scheduling are highlighted in detail and are based on and inspired by a combination of academic research studies at Ghent University (www.ugent.be), in-company trainings at Vlerick Business School (www.vlerick.com) and consultancy projects at OR-AS (www.or-as.be). First, the construction of a project baseline schedule is a central theme throughout the various chapters of the book, and is discussed from a complexity point of view with and without the presence of project resources. Second, the creation of an awareness of the weak parts in a baseline schedule is discussed at the end of the two baseline scheduling parts as schedule risk analysis techniques that can be applied on top of the baseline schedule. Third, the baseline schedule and its risk analyses can be used as guidelines during the project control step where actual deviations can be corrected within the margins of the project’s time and cost reserves. The second edition of this book has seen corrections, additions and amendments in detail throughout the book. Moreover Chapter 15 on "Dynamic Scheduling with ProTrack" has been completely rewritten and extended with a section on "ProTrack as a research tool".

This practical handbook presents simple techniques for the analysis and management of risk and uncertainty. Covering everything from modelling and simulation to revenue risk assessment, this book will be appropriate for information technology professionals as well as for anyone involved in a project-based business.

It’s not exactly news that putting the concepts of risk management into action can help make a project more successful. In fact, a solid understanding of risk management is a vital component of any project management professional’s training, regardless of the industry in which he or she might work. In today’s fast-paced, constantly changing, and extremely competitive environment, risk management is more important than ever for businesses hoping to find their footing in the global market. In Project Risk Management: A Practical Implementation Approach, author Michael M. Bissonette not only provides insights into the best ways to implement the traditional techniques of risk management, but also explores innovative new methods that can help modern organizations build their culture, improve financial performance, and ultimately achieve greater success in all of their projects.

Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.