Preventing Violent Conflicts

Lund, an international relations consultant, defines early warning and preventive diplomacy, looking at which methods work and why, who uses them, and recent preventive efforts, and suggests how multilateral and national entities including the US government can overcome operational challenges to effective preventive action. He outlines a more systematic, global preventive regime that draws on the strengths of individual states, the UN, regional organizations, and NGOs. For students and scholars of international relations. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.

New wars will continue to erupt if greater and smarter efforts are not made to prevent them. Current dangers stem from factors such as rise of unstable regimes, global economic turbulence, climate change, and shift in global power distribution. Preventing relapse after wars end is insufficient to prevent most new conflicts, because post-conflict recurrences constitute only a minority of all conflict outbreaks. A wide range of governments, including United States, and many intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations have made commitments to take serious efforts to prevent violent conflicts. These commitments represent a more than adequate normative foundation and a supportive political environment for development of more effective conflict prevention strategies.

How can the United Nations, regional and subregional organizations, government donors, and other policymakers best apply the tools of conflict prevention to the wide range of intrastate conflict situations actually found in the field? The detailed case studies and analytical chapters in From Promise to Practice offer operational lessons for fashioning strategy and tactics to meet the challenges of specific conflicts, both potential and actual.

Based on literature review and inputs from surveyed agencies, this book assesses the value and role of early warning for the prevention of violent conflict and identifies the most effective systems.