Probabilistic Machine Learning

A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation. Probabilistic Machine Learning grew out of the author’s 2012 book, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. More than just a simple update, this is a completely new book that reflects the dramatic developments in the field since 2012, most notably deep learning. In addition, the new book is accompanied by online Python code, using libraries such as scikit-learn, JAX, PyTorch, and Tensorflow, which can be used to reproduce nearly all the figures; this code can be run inside a web browser using cloud-based notebooks, and provides a practical complement to the theoretical topics discussed in the book. This introductory text will be followed by a sequel that covers more advanced topics, taking the same probabilistic approach.

A comprehensive introduction to machine learning that uses probabilistic models and inference as a unifying approach. Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package—PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)—that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

An advanced book for researchers and graduate students working in machine learning and statistics who want to learn about deep learning, Bayesian inference, generative models, and decision making under uncertainty. An advanced counterpart to Probabilistic Machine Learning: An Introduction, this high-level textbook provides researchers and graduate students detailed coverage of cutting-edge topics in machine learning, including deep generative modeling, graphical models, Bayesian inference, reinforcement learning, and causality. This volume puts deep learning into a larger statistical context and unifies approaches based on deep learning with ones based on probabilistic modeling and inference. With contributions from top scientists and domain experts from places such as Google, DeepMind, Amazon, Purdue University, NYU, and the University of Washington, this rigorous book is essential to understanding the vital issues in machine learning. Covers generation of high dimensional outputs, such as images, text, and graphs Discusses methods for discovering insights about data, based on latent variable models Considers training and testing under different distributions Explores how to use probabilistic models and inference for causal inference and decision making Features online Python code accompaniment

An introduction to key concepts and techniques in probabilistic machine learning for civil engineering students and professionals; with many step-by-step examples, illustrations, and exercises. This book introduces probabilistic machine learning concepts to civil engineering students and professionals, presenting key approaches and techniques in a way that is accessible to readers without a specialized background in statistics or computer science. It presents different methods clearly and directly, through step-by-step examples, illustrations, and exercises. Having mastered the material, readers will be able to understand the more advanced machine learning literature from which this book draws. The book presents key approaches in the three subfields of probabilistic machine learning: supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. It first covers the background knowledge required to understand machine learning, including linear algebra and probability theory. It goes on to present Bayesian estimation, which is behind the formulation of both supervised and unsupervised learning methods, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which enable Bayesian estimation in certain complex cases. The book then covers approaches associated with supervised learning, including regression methods and classification methods, and notions associated with unsupervised learning, including clustering, dimensionality reduction, Bayesian networks, state-space models, and model calibration. Finally, the book introduces fundamental concepts of rational decisions in uncertain contexts and rational decision-making in uncertain and sequential contexts. Building on this, the book describes the basics of reinforcement learning, whereby a virtual agent learns how to make optimal decisions through trial and error while interacting with its environment.

The second and expanded edition of a comprehensive introduction to machine learning that uses probabilistic models and inference as a unifying approach. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, including deep learning, viewed through the lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. This second edition has been substantially expanded and revised, incorporating many recent developments in the field. It has new chapters on linear algebra, optimization, implicit generative models, reinforcement learning, and causality; and other chapters on such topics as variational inference and graphical models have been significantly updated. The software for the book (hosted on github) is now implemented in Python rather than MATLAB, and uses state-of-the-art libraries including as scikit-learn, Tensorflow 2, and JAX.

Probabilistic Deep Learning is a hands-on guide to the principles that support neural networks. Learn to improve network performance with the right distribution for different data types, and discover Bayesian variants that can state their own uncertainty to increase accuracy. This book provides easy-to-apply code and uses popular frameworks to keep you focused on practical applications. Summary Probabilistic Deep Learning: With Python, Keras and TensorFlow Probability teaches the increasingly popular probabilistic approach to deep learning that allows you to refine your results more quickly and accurately without much trial-and-error testing. Emphasizing practical techniques that use the Python-based Tensorflow Probability Framework, you’ll learn to build highly-performant deep learning applications that can reliably handle the noise and uncertainty of real-world data. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the technology The world is a noisy and uncertain place. Probabilistic deep learning models capture that noise and uncertainty, pulling it into real-world scenarios. Crucial for self-driving cars and scientific testing, these techniques help deep learning engineers assess the accuracy of their results, spot errors, and improve their understanding of how algorithms work. About the book Probabilistic Deep Learning is a hands-on guide to the principles that support neural networks. Learn to improve network performance with the right distribution for different data types, and discover Bayesian variants that can state their own uncertainty to increase accuracy. This book provides easy-to-apply code and uses popular frameworks to keep you focused on practical applications. What's inside Explore maximum likelihood and the statistical basis of deep learning Discover probabilistic models that can indicate possible outcomes Learn to use normalizing flows for modeling and generating complex distributions Use Bayesian neural networks to access the uncertainty in the model About the reader For experienced machine learning developers. About the author Oliver Dürr is a professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Konstanz, Germany. Beate Sick holds a chair for applied statistics at ZHAW and works as a researcher and lecturer at the University of Zurich. Elvis Murina is a data scientist. Table of Contents PART 1 - BASICS OF DEEP LEARNING 1 Introduction to probabilistic deep learning 2 Neural network architectures 3 Principles of curve fitting PART 2 - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACHES FOR PROBABILISTIC DL MODELS 4 Building loss functions with the likelihood approach 5 Probabilistic deep learning models with TensorFlow Probability 6 Probabilistic deep learning models in the wild PART 3 - BAYESIAN APPROACHES FOR PROBABILISTIC DL MODELS 7 Bayesian learning 8 Bayesian neural networks

This book, fully updated for Python version 3.6+, covers the key ideas that link probability, statistics, and machine learning illustrated using Python modules in these areas. All the figures and numerical results are reproducible using the Python codes provided. The author develops key intuitions in machine learning by working meaningful examples using multiple analytical methods and Python codes, thereby connecting theoretical concepts to concrete implementations. Detailed proofs for certain important results are also provided. Modern Python modules like Pandas, Sympy, Scikit-learn, Tensorflow, and Keras are applied to simulate and visualize important machine learning concepts like the bias/variance trade-off, cross-validation, and regularization. Many abstract mathematical ideas, such as convergence in probability theory, are developed and illustrated with numerical examples. This updated edition now includes the Fisher Exact Test and the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon Test. A new section on survival analysis has been included as well as substantial development of Generalized Linear Models. The new deep learning section for image processing includes an in-depth discussion of gradient descent methods that underpin all deep learning algorithms. As with the prior edition, there are new and updated *Programming Tips* that the illustrate effective Python modules and methods for scientific programming and machine learning. There are 445 run-able code blocks with corresponding outputs that have been tested for accuracy. Over 158 graphical visualizations (almost all generated using Python) illustrate the concepts that are developed both in code and in mathematics. We also discuss and use key Python modules such as Numpy, Scikit-learn, Sympy, Scipy, Lifelines, CvxPy, Theano, Matplotlib, Pandas, Tensorflow, Statsmodels, and Keras. This book is suitable for anyone with an undergraduate-level exposure to probability, statistics, or machine learning and with rudimentary knowledge of Python programming.

This book proposes probabilistic machine learning models that represent the hardware properties of the device hosting them. These models can be used to evaluate the impact that a specific device configuration may have on resource consumption and performance of the machine learning task, with the overarching goal of balancing the two optimally. The book first motivates extreme-edge computing in the context of the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm. Then, it briefly reviews the steps involved in the execution of a machine learning task and identifies the implications associated with implementing this type of workload in resource-constrained devices. The core of this book focuses on augmenting and exploiting the properties of Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Circuits in order to endow them with hardware-awareness. The proposed models can encode the properties of various device sub-systems that are typically not considered by other resource-aware strategies, bringing about resource-saving opportunities that traditional approaches fail to uncover. The performance of the proposed models and strategies is empirically evaluated for several use cases. All of the considered examples show the potential of attaining significant resource-saving opportunities with minimal accuracy losses at application time. Overall, this book constitutes a novel approach to hardware-algorithm co-optimization that further bridges the fields of Machine Learning and Electrical Engineering.