Probability Concepts In Electric Power Systems

Modern Power System Analysis Turan Gönen The first book on electrical power systems to deal exclusively with the design, structure, and analysis of the transmission system itself. Serves as a self-study guide or as a classroom text and describes, step-by-step, all the tools and procedures needed to analyze today’s electrical power systems. It covers power system planning, steady-state performance of transmission lines, disturbance of the normal operating conditions and other problems, as well as symmetrical components and sequence impedances. The book also analyzes balanced and unbalanced faults, land flow, and system protection, detailing criteria for protective systems and several types of relays. 1988 (0 471-85903-6) 560 pp. Least-Cost Electric Utility Planning Harry G. Stoll Presents all the key elements and tools necessary to plan and operate efficient electric utility power systems. Its seven sections address: economics, finance, and regulation; industrial power economics; load demand and management; reliability of the generation system; cost of production in the generation system; capacity planning; and transmission planning. Each section addresses power system theory and principles and applies them to realistic utility examples. Results from solved examples are expanded to illustrate the sensitivity and direction of key parameters. 1989 (0 471-63614-2) 782 pp.

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems contains the proceedings of the First International Symposium held in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, on July 11-13, 1986. The papers explore significant technical advances that have been made in the application of probability methods to the design of electric power systems. This volume is comprised of 65 chapters divided into 10 sections and begins by discussing the probabilistic methodologies used in the assessment of power system reliability and structural design. The following chapters focus on the applications of probabilistic techniques to the analysis and design of transmission systems and structures; evaluation of design and reliability of distribution systems; system planning; and assessment of performance of transmission system components such as insulators, tower joints, and foundations. The probability-based procedures for dealing with data bases such as wind load and ice load are also considered, along with the effects of weather-induced loads on overhead power lines and the use of probability methods in upgrading existing power lines and components. The final section deals with applications of probability methods to power system problems not covered in other chapters. This book will be of value to engineers involved in uprating, designing, analyzing, and assessing reliability of transmission and distribution systems.

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The book is composed of 12 chapters and three appendices, and can be divided into four parts. The first part includes Chapters 2 to 7, which discuss the concepts, models, methods and data in probabilistic transmission planning. The second part, Chapters 8 to 11, addresses four essential issues in probabilistic transmission planning applications using actual utility systems as examples. Chapter 12, as the third part, focuses on a special issue, i.e. how to deal with uncertainty of data in probabilistic transmission planning. The fourth part consists of three appendices, which provide the basic knowledge in mathematics for probabilistic planning.

This book is a seque1 to Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Concepts and Techniques, written by the same authors and published by Pitman Books in January 1983. * As a sequel, this book is intended to be considered and read as the second oftwo volumes rather than as a text that stands on its own. For this reason, readers who are not familiar with basic reliability modelling and evaluation should either first read the companion volume or, at least, read the two volumes side by side. Those who are already familiar with the basic concepts and only require an extension of their knowledge into the power system problem area should be able to understand the present text with little or no reference to the earlier work. In order to assist readers, the present book refers frequently to the first volume at relevant points, citing it simply as Engineering Systems. Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems has evolved from our deep interest in education and our long-standing involvement in quantitative reliability evaluation and application of probability techniques to power system problems. It could not have been written, however, without the active involvement of many students in our respective research programs. There have been too many to mention individu ally hut most are recorded within the references at the ends of chapters.

This book is a sequel to Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Concepts and Techniques, written by the same authors and published by Pitman Books in January 1983. As a sequel, this book is intended to be considered and read as the second of two volumes rather than as a text that stands on its own. For this reason, readers who are not familiar with basic reliability modelling and evaluation should either first read the companion volume or, at least, read the two volumes side by side. Those who are already familiar with the basic concepts and only require an extension of their knowledge into the power system problem area should be able to understand the present text with little or no reference to the earlier work. In order to assist readers, the present book refers frequently to the first volume at relevant points, citing it simply as Engineering Systems. Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems has evolved from our oUf deep interest in education and our oUf long-standing long-standing involvement involvement in in quantitative reliability evaluation and application of probability prob ability techniques techniques to power system problems. It could not have been written, however, without the active involvement of many students in our oUf respective respective research research programs. programs. There have been too many to mention individually but most are recorded within the references at the ends of chapters.

This textbook provides an introduction to probabilistic reliability analysis of power systems. It discusses a range of probabilistic methods used in reliability modelling of power system components, small systems and large systems. It also presents the benefits of probabilistic methods for modelling renewable energy sources. The textbook describes real-life studies, discussing practical examples and providing interesting problems, teaching students the methods in a thorough and hands-on way. The textbook has chapters dedicated to reliability models for components (reliability functions, component life cycle, two-state Markov model, stress-strength model), small systems (reliability networks, Markov models, fault/event tree analysis) and large systems (generation adequacy, state enumeration, Monte-Carlo simulation). Moreover, it contains chapters about probabilistic optimal power flow, the reliability of underground cables and cyber-physical power systems. After reading this book, engineering students will be able to apply various methods to model the reliability of power system components, smaller and larger systems. The textbook will be accessible to power engineering students, as well as students from mathematics, computer science, physics, mechanical engineering, policy & management, and will allow them to apply reliability analysis methods to their own areas of expertise.

The application of quantitative reliability evaluation in electric power sys tems has now evolved to the point at which most utilities use these techniques in one or more areas of their planning, design, and operation. Most of the techniques in use are based on analytical models and resulting analytical evaluation procedures. Improvements in and availability of high-speed digi tal computers have created the opportunity to analyze many of these prob lems using stochastic simulation methods and over the last decade there has been increased interest in and use made of Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative power system reliability assessment. Monte Carlo simulation is not a new concept and recorded applications have existed for at least 50 yr. However, localized high-speed computers with large-capacity storage have made Monte Carlo simulation an available and sometimes preferable option for many power system reliability applications. Monte Carlo simulation is also an integral part of a modern undergrad uate or graduate course on reliability evaluation of general engineering systems or specialized areas such as electric power systems. It is hoped that this textbook will help formalize the many existing applications of Monte Carlo simulation and assist in their integration in teaching programs. This book presents the basic concepts associated with Monte Carlo simulation.