Profitability And Balance Sheet Repair Of Italian Banks

The profitability of Italian banks depends, among other factors, on the strength of the ongoing economic recovery, the stance of monetary policy, and the beneficial effects of current and past reforms, notably to address structural obstacles to resolving nonperforming loans (NPLs) and to foster banking sector consolidation. Improved profitability would enable banks to raise capital buffers and accelerate the cleanup of their balance sheets. This paper investigates quantitatively the current and prospective earnings capacity of Italian banks. A bottom-up analysis of the 15 largest Italian banks suggests that the system is on the whole profitable, but that there is significant heterogeneity across banks. Many banks should become more profitable as the economy recovers, but their capacity to lend depends on the size of their capital buffers. However, a number of smaller banks face profitability pressures, even under favorable assumptions. There is thus a need to push ahead decisively on cleaning up balance sheets, including through cost cutting and efficiency gains.

To stabilize and bring down nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Italian banking system, the Italian authorities have been implementing a number of reforms, aimed among others at speeding up insolvency and enforcement proceedings, strengthening bank corporate governance, cleaning up balance sheets, and facilitating bank consolidation. This paper examines the Italian banking system’s NPL problem, which ties up capital, weighing on bank profitability and authorities’ economic reforms. It argues for a comprehensive approach, encompassing economic, supervisory, and legal measures. The authorities’ reforms are important steps toward this end. The paper describes measures that could further support their actions.

This paper examines the case for efficiency-driven banking sector consolidation in Italy, evaluates its potential effects on profitability, and discusses policy options to facilitate a consolidation process that is as effective as possible. A bottom-up analysis of 386 Italian banks suggests that while profitability is expected to improve as the economy gradually recovers, operational efficiency gains are nonetheless needed to restore large parts of the banking system to healthy profitability. Banking system consolidation can play a role in facilitating such efficiency gains, but its effectiveness is likely to be most as part of a comprehensive strategy that includes complementary reforms to clean up bank balance sheets. Cross-country experience indicates that efficiency gains are more likely to follow consolidations where careful viability analyses are conducted of the synergies and operational improvements that can be achieved.

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the conditions under which Italian banks can earn sufficient profits to grow out of their asset quality problems, rebuild capital buffers, and finance the real economy. A bottom-up analysis of the 15 largest Italian banks suggests that restoring sustainable profitability depends heavily on the growth outlook. Many banks are expected to become more profitable as the economy recovers, but their capacity to lend depends on the size of their capital buffers. However, a number of smaller banks face substantial profitability pressures, highlighting the need to reduce the large stock of nonperforming loans and for further cost cutting and efficiency gains.

This book illustrates the importance of bonds as a funding tool available to banks. After providing the reader with an overview of the funding strategies adopted during the last ten years by European banks, the book offers a deep focus on the Italian banking industry. Notably, the authors illustrate how bonds have been a primary funding choice for Italian banks, as well as a preponderant asset in Italian households’ portfolios. Furthermore, they highlight the consequences of the adoption of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) on the yields offered by bonds of Italian banks. Finally, they conclude the volume with the illustration of very recent case studies about the application of the BRRD to some problematic banks in Italy and the related side effects generated to bank bondholders. All the analyses presented in the book are supported by the use of quantitative data.

This paper examines whether a tipping point exists for real GDP growth in Italy above which the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans falls significantly. Estimating a heterogeneous dynamic panel-threshold model with data on 17 Italian regions over the period 1997–2014, we provide evidence for the presence of growth-threshold effects on the NPL ratio in Italy. More specifically, we find that real GDP growth above 1.2 percent, if sustained for a number of years, is associated with a significant decline in the NPLs ratio. Achieving such growth rates requires decisively tackling long-standing structural rigidities and improving the quality of fiscal policy. Given the modest potential growth outlook, however, under which banks are likely to struggle to grow out of their NPL overhang, further policy measures are needed to put the NPL ratio on a firm downward path over the medium term.

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

This Palgrave Pivot provides a comprehensive overview of the dynamics that are affecting the profitability of European banks since the recent crisis period. More specifically, it sheds light on the most crucial changes in profit generation and on the consequential changes in banking strategies due to fiercer competition, reduced margin and changing regulation. The work is divided in four main parts. The first section introduces the changes in bank management policies, considering the periods before and since the crisis. In the second section, the authors review the literature on bank profitability and outline the main determinants of profit generation, and in the third section they provide a cross-country analysis of profitability for a wide sample of European banks during the great financial crisis. In the last section, the authors discuss the results of the quantitative analysis under the new regulatory and competitive framework that is progressively affecting the banking sector (fintech, Basel regulations, etc.). This book will be of interest to academics, researchers and students of European banking.