Public Expenditure Policies In Southeast Europe

The countries of Southeast Europe have undergone a significant transition over the past decade. Helped by macroeconomic stabilization and efforts in advancing structural reforms, real GDP growth has picked up this century. Fiscal adjustment has been an integral part of the transition. Expenditure cuts have helped trim spending relative to GDP in most countries in the region and cut fiscal deficits everywhere except in Serbia. Progress in fiscal consolidation has been substantial, but in several of the countries the government's presence in the economy remains oversized. Costs related to advancing EU integration and completing reforms are expected to generate further pressures for public spending. Creating the fiscal space for addressing such pressures would require a further reduction in existing spending, given that there is still scope for increasing tax rates. The report identifies key remaining challenges and proposes a menu of options in further reforms in sectors that account for the largest shares of public spending, and where reforms are likely to have significant budgetary implications. The sectors discussed in the report are social protection, health, education, public administration, and infrastructure.

Future economic development and the well-being of citizens in South East Europe (SEE) increasingly depend on greater economic competitiveness. Realising the region’s economic potential requires a holistic, growth-oriented policy approach. Against the backdrop of enhanced European Union (EU) ...

Managing Public Expenditure presents a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of all aspects of public expenditure management from the preparation of the budget to the execution, control and audit stages.

CESEE countries lag in terms of infrastructure compared to the EU15, and deficient infrastructure is often cited as a constraint to growth and convergence. Investing in infrastructure is therefore an important long-standing policy issue for the region. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, infrastructure investment has also gained some ground as economies look to support activity in the recovery phase once the virus has been contained. Against this backdrop, this project seeks to benchmark infrastructure in CESEE, assess the macro impact of higher infrastructure investment, and discuss policies issues to maximize such impact. First, we benchmark infrastructure in the region versus the EU15, across various infrastructure sectors and using different methodologies. Second, deploying empirical estimates and model-based simulations, we analyze the macroeconomic impact of boosting infrastructure investment. Third, we present an in-depth analysis of policy issues: enhancing public investment management, managing fiscal risks, and mobilizing private sector participation.

In recent years, Europe and Central Asia has experienced the world's fastest growing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Yet, in the Western Balkan countries the HIV prevalence rate is under 0.1 percent, which ranks among the lowest. This may be due to a low level of infection among the population--or partly due to inadequate surveillance systems. All major contributing factors for the breakout of an HIV/AIDS epidemic are present in the Western Balkans. HIV/AIDS disproportionably affects youth (80 percent of HIV-infected people are 30 years old or younger). Most of the Western Balkan countries have very young p.

Future economic development and the wellbeing of citizens in South East Europe (SEE) depend more than ever on greater economic competitiveness. To underpin the drive to improve competitiveness and foster private investment, an integrated policy approach is needed.

This paper presents a detailed account of the rich set of macroprudential measures taken in four Southeastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia—during their synchronized boom and bust cycles in 2003–12, and assesses their effectiveness. We find that only strong measures helped contain domestic credit growth, the share of foreigncurrency- denominated loans provided by the domestic banking sector, or the domestic banking sector’s reliance on foreign borrowing during the boom years. We also find that circumvention via direct external borrowing often fully offset the effectiveness of these strict measures, and thatmeasures taken during the bust had no discernible impact. We conclude that (i) proper calibration of macroprudential measures is of the essence; (ii) only strong, broad-based macroprudential measures can contain credit booms; (iii) econometric studies of macroprudential policy effectiveness should focus on measures rather than on instruments (i.e. classes of measures) and in so doing allow for possible non-linear and state-contingent effects.