Recent Food Prices Movements

From 2006 to mid-2008 the international prices of agricultural commodities increased considerably, by a factor larger than two. This upward trend in agricultural prices captured the world's attention as a new food crisis was emerging. Several explanations for these movements in prices, ranging from demand-driven forces to supply shocks, have been provided by analysts, researchers, and development institutions. This paper is an attempt to empirically validate these explanations using time series econometrics and data at monthly frequency. We focus on the international price of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans. First, we identify variables associated with the factors mentioned as causing the increase in these agricultural commodities prices. Second, we use time series analysis to try to quantitatively validate those explanations. The empirical work presented here includes first difference models and rolling Granger causality tests. Overall, our empirical analysis mainly provides evidence that financial activity in futures markets and proxies for speculation can help explain the observed change in food prices; any other explanation is not well supported by our time series analysis.

Between early June 2010 and February 2011, prices of food commodities increased sharply, surpassing the 2008 peaks that had spread anxiety among policymakers and low-income consumers around the world. Most of the long-term trends in agricultural production and consumption that contributed to the 2002-06 price increases and the 2007-08 price spike also contributed to the recent price surge. This report describes the factors that have contributed to the large and rapid increase in agricultural prices during the past year. It focuses particularly on food commodity prices¿which have risen 60 percent since June 2010. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand edition of an important, hard-to-find publication.

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

The heightened commodity price volatility of 2008 and 2010 and the subsequent acceleration in U.S. food price inflation associated with those market shifts generated questions about farm and food price movements. This report addresses the nature and measurement of retail food price inflation. Contents of this report: Intro.; Consumer Demand; The Consumer Price Index (CPI); Consumer Income and Expenditures; Recent Food Price Inflation; Federal Spending for Domestic Food Assistance Programs: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly Food Stamps); Child Nutrition; The WIC Program; Additional Commodity Assistance Programs; Foreign Food Aid. Charts and tables. A print on demand report.

Retail food prices in the United States rose an average of over 9 percent annually from 1973 to 1979. The reasons these increases occurred and what can be done to slow the rate of increase are examined. They also provide an overview of the food delivery system. Substantially reducing the upward movement in food prices will require the same long-term effort needed to reduce general inflation. In addition, actions to reduce the volatility in commodity prices and commodity trade flows also appear needed.

This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

Abstract: A USDA report summarizes the causes of food price inflation. Retail food prices in the United States rose over90% annually from 1973 to 1979. Increases in prices result from higher farm-level commodity prices and higher marketingcosts. Food production costs, trade policies, food marketing costs, and structural changes are controllable in varying degrees. Control of fluctuations due to weather and the biological nature of food production processes is unlikely. Consumers are partially responsible for food priceincreases through rising incomes and changing lifestyles. Reduction of the upward movement in food prices will requirea long-term effort. The Government, food industry, and consumers can slow price increases by 1) supporting programsto reduce inflation rate; 2) encouraging price competition; 3) encouraging consumer nutrition education; 4) stabilizing trade flows; 5) reviewing regulations; 6) eliminating labor practices and policies that limit savings; 7) encouraging new technology, especially packaging, adoption.