Risk And Resolution

America repeatedly finds itself mired in military interventions long after public buy-in to the national interest has waned. Why is the timely disengagement of military forces so difficult to achieve? Traditional international relations theories diminish the role of the individual leader in favor of the state or international institutions. Behavioral science theories have in recent years experienced a resurgence. However, the dominant behavioral explanation of foreign policy decision-making, prospect theory, while it focuses on how people tend to make decisions under risk, still minimizes the influence of the individual president. Decisions to disengage military forces are presidential decisions, just like the decisions to commit forces to foreign interventions. If we accept this, then it is important to understand if, and if so why, some presidents inherently are more or less acceptant of the risks disengagement presents. This book operationalizes a competing personality-based model of decision-making under risk. Referred to here as the trait-based model, it is assessed using disengagement opportunities in three varied levels of military intervention across four presidencies: humanitarian relief turned nation-building under George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton in Somalia, compellent air campaigns turned peace-making/keeping in Bosnia and Kosovo under Clinton, and major combat operations turned irregular warfare in Iraq under George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Data for the model predominantly comes from existing presidential personality profiles based on the dominant model of personality theory, the five-factor model, augmented by Myers-Briggs Type Inventory data from public sources. This study aims to explain the roughly 30 percent of cases which defy prospect theory's predictions and to better explain those cases where prospect theory might heretofore have sufficed. The results suggest specific personality traits do in fact point to presidents' predispositions toward risk, which in turn help explain their disengagement decisions. This work may be only the second to apply the five-factor model to presidential foreign policy decision-making and is the first to do so in the context of disengagement decisions. Hopefully it will foster further work in both areas.

Conducted properly, information security risk assessments provide managers with the feedback needed to manage risk through the understanding of threats to corporate assets, determination of current control vulnerabilities, and appropriate safeguards selection. Performed incorrectly, they can provide the false sense of security that allows potential threats to develop into disastrous losses of proprietary information, capital, and corporate value. Picking up where its bestselling predecessors left off, The Security Risk Assessment Handbook: A Complete Guide for Performing Security Risk Assessments, Third Edition gives you detailed instruction on how to conduct a security risk assessment effectively and efficiently, supplying wide-ranging coverage that includes security risk analysis, mitigation, and risk assessment reporting. The third edition has expanded coverage of essential topics, such as threat analysis, data gathering, risk analysis, and risk assessment methods, and added coverage of new topics essential for current assessment projects (e.g., cloud security, supply chain management, and security risk assessment methods). This handbook walks you through the process of conducting an effective security assessment, and it provides the tools, methods, and up-to-date understanding you need to select the security measures best suited to your organization. Trusted to assess security for small companies, leading organizations, and government agencies, including the CIA, NSA, and NATO, Douglas J. Landoll unveils the little-known tips, tricks, and techniques used by savvy security professionals in the field. It includes features on how to Better negotiate the scope and rigor of security assessments Effectively interface with security assessment teams Gain an improved understanding of final report recommendations Deliver insightful comments on draft reports This edition includes detailed guidance on gathering data and analyzes over 200 administrative, technical, and physical controls using the RIIOT data gathering method; introduces the RIIOT FRAME (risk assessment method), including hundreds of tables, over 70 new diagrams and figures, and over 80 exercises; and provides a detailed analysis of many of the popular security risk assessment methods in use today. The companion website (infosecurityrisk.com) provides downloads for checklists, spreadsheets, figures, and tools.

Financial Economics, Risk and Information presents the fundamentals of finance in static and dynamic frameworks with focus on risk and information. The objective of this book is to introduce undergraduate and first-year graduate students to the methods and solutions of the main problems in finance theory relating to the economics of uncertainty and information. The main goal of the second edition is to make the materials more accessible to a wider audience of students and finance professionals. The focus is on developing a core body of theory that will provide the student with a solid intellectual foundation for more advanced topics and methods. The new edition has streamlined chapters and topics, with new sections on portfolio choice under alternative information structures. The starting point is the traditional mean-variance approach, followed by portfolio choice from first principles. The topics are extended to alternative market structures, alternative contractual arrangements and agency, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium in discrete and continuous time, attitudes towards risk and towards inter-temporal substitution in discrete and continuous time; and option pricing. In general, the book presents a balanced introduction to the use of stochastic methods in discrete and continuous time in the field of financial economics.

This book examines the effect of banking on the real economy and society, focusing on banking supervision as the decisive factor in steering banking activities and determining the social outcome of the game of finance. Banking is like a cardiovascular system for our society. If it functions correctly, it allows the economy to operate smoothly. On the other hand, if it malfunctions it becomes a doomsday device. This creates an asymmetry of risks – the asymmetry between the potential dire consequences and the modest rewards of accepting those risks. Banking was one of the critical technological factors enabling the transition from the middle ages and the creation of modern society. However, while today it contributes little to economic growth, its malfunction has a profound and lasting adverse impact. The book explains why, how and what. Why is it important to keep tight supervision of the banks? How can banking supervision improve stability, not only of the financial system but also of the whole human society? What went wrong with the regulation in the past?

The growth of financial markets has clearly outpaced the development of financial market regulations. With growing complexity in the world of finance, and the resultant higher frequency of financial crises, all eyes have shifted toward the current inad

Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.

This book aims at gauging whether the nature of US foreign policy decision-making has changed after the Cold War as radically as a large body of literature seems to suggest, and develops a new framework to interpret presidential decision-making in foreign policy. It locates the study of risk in US foreign policy in a wider intellectual landscape that draws on contemporary debates in historiography, international relations and Presidential studies. Based on developments in the health and environment literature, the book identifies the President as the ultimate risk-manager, demonstrating how a President is called to perform a delicate balancing act between risks on the domestic/political side and risks on the strategic/international side. Every decision represents a ‘risk vs. risk trade-off,’ in which the management of one ‘target risk’ leads to the development ‘countervailing risks.’ The book applies this framework to the study three major crises in US foreign policy: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979, and the massacre at Srebrenica in 1995. Each case-study results from substantial archival research and over twenty interviews with policymakers and academics, including former President Jimmy Carter and former Senator Bob Dole. This book is ideal for postgraduate researchers and academics in US foreign policy, foreign policy decision-making and the US Presidency as well as Departments and Institutes dealing with the study of risk in the social sciences. The case studies will also be of great use to undergraduate students.