Risk In The Modern Age

Environmental decision-making in recent decades has become increasingly dependent on scientific expertise. Grounded in universal principles of knowledge, these expert evaluations often depart from the assessments of ordinary members of the public. Whether the issue is nuclear power, genetic testing, food safety, or biodiversity, conservation lay people are increasingly charging experts with being ignorant of local contextual considerations. Scientists, as well as many policy-makers, in turn contend that the public is hopelessly irrational in gauging environmental risks. A growing group of social theorists has begun to take a keen interest in these disputes because risk captures central themes of late modernity. Increasing individualization, emerging new social movements, and declining public trust in key institutions are notions that loom large in these debates. Highlighting both theoretical and empirical perspectives, this volume brings together a distinguished group of environmental sociologists who critique and extend current thinking on what it means to live in a 'risk society'.

In An Age of Risk, Emily Nacol shows that risk, now treated as a permanent feature of our lives, did not always govern understandings of the future. Focusing on the epistemological, political, and economic writings of Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, David Hume, and Adam Smith, Nacol explains that in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Britain, political and economic thinkers reimagined the future as a terrain of risk, characterized by probabilistic calculation, prediction, and control. In these early modern sources, Nacol contends, we see three crucial developments in thought on risk and politics. While early modern thinkers differentiated uncertainty about the future from probabilistic calculations of risk, they remained attentive to the ways uncertainty and risk remained in a conceptual tangle, a problem that constrained good decision making. They developed sophisticated theories of trust and credit as crucial background conditions for prudent risk-taking, and offered complex depictions of the relationships and behaviors that would make risk-taking more palatable. They also developed two narratives that persist in subsequent accounts of risk—risk as a threat to security, and risk as an opportunity for profit. Looking at how these narratives are entwined in early modern thought, Nacol locates the origins of our own ambivalence about risk-taking. By the end of the eighteenth century, she argues, a new type of political actor would emerge from this ambivalence, one who approached risk with fear rather than hope. By placing a fresh lens on early modern writing, An Age of Risk demonstrates how new and evolving orientations toward risk influenced approaches to politics and commerce that continue to this day.

How have Americans confronted, managed, and even enjoyed the risks of daily life? Winner of the Ralph Gomory Prize of the Business History Conference “Risk” is a capacious term used to describe the uncertainties that arise from physical, financial, political, and social activities. Practically everything we do carries some level of risk—threats to our bodies, property, and animals. How do we determine when the risk is too high? In considering this question, Arwen P. Mohun offers a thought-provoking study of danger and how people have managed it from pre-industrial and industrial America up until today. Mohun outlines a vernacular risk culture in early America, one based on ordinary experience and common sense. The rise of factories and machinery eventually led to shocking accidents, which, she explains, risk-management experts and the “gospel of safety” sought to counter. Finally, she examines the simultaneous blossoming of risk-taking as fun and the aggressive regulations that follow from the consumer-products-safety movement. Risk and society, a rapidly growing area of historical research, interests sociologists, psychologists, and other social scientists. Americans have learned to tame risk in both the workplace and the home. Yet many of us still like amusement park rides that scare the devil out of us; they dare us to take risks.

This book discusses many key topics in investment and risk management, the global economic situation and the shift in global investment strategies. It was largely written during the period of 2007-12, one of the most tumultuous times in global financial markets which called into question not only tenets of economic forecasting and also asset allocation and return strategies. It contains studies of how investors lose money in derivative markets, examples of those who did not and how these disasters could have been prevented. The authors draw some conclusions on the impact of the structural shifts currently underway in the global economy as well as how cyclical trends will affect these industries, the globe and key sectors. The authors zoom in on key growth areas, including emerging markets, their interlinkages and financial trends. The book also covers risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies in financial and sports betting markets, plus incentives, volatility aspects, risk taking and investments strategies used by hedge funds and university endowments. Topics such as stock market crash predictions, asset liability planning models, various players in financial markets and the evaluation of the greatest investors are also discussed. The book presents tools and case studies of real applications for analyzing a wide variety of investment returns and better assessing the risks which many investors have preferred to ignore in the search of returns. Many security market regularities or anomalies are discussed including political party and January effects as is the process of building scenarios and using Kelly and fractional Kelly strategies to optimize returns.

Environmental decision-making in recent decades has become increasingly dependent on scientific expertise. Grounded in universal principles of knowledge, these expert evaluations often depart from the assessments of ordinary members of the public. Whether the issue is nuclear power, genetic testing, food safety, or biodiversity, conservation lay people are increasingly charging experts with being ignorant of local contextual considerations. Scientists, as well as many policy-makers, in turn contend that the public is hopelessly irrational in gauging environmental risks. A growing group of social theorists has begun to take a keen interest in these disputes because risk captures central themes of late modernity. Increasing individualization, emerging new social movements, and declining public trust in key institutions are notions that loom large in these debates. Highlighting both theoretical and empirical perspectives, this volume brings together a distinguished group of environmental sociologists who critique and extend current thinking on what it means to live in a 'risk society'.

This book discusses many key topics in investment and risk management, the global economic situation and the shift in global investment strategies. It was largely written during the period of 2007-12, one of the most tumultuous times in global financial markets which called into question not only tenets of economic forecasting and also asset allocation and return strategies. It contains studies of how investors lose money in derivative markets, examples of those who did not and how these disasters could have been prevented. The authors draw some conclusions on the impact of the structural shifts currently underway in the global economy as well as how cyclical trends will affect these industries, the globe and key sectors. The authors zoom in on key growth areas, including emerging markets, their interlinkages and financial trends. The book also covers risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies in financial and sports betting markets, plus incentives, volatility aspects, risk taking and investments strategies used by hedge funds and university endowments. Topics such as stock market crash predictions, asset liability planning models, various players in financial markets and the evaluation of the greatest investors are also discussed. The book presents tools and case studies of real applications for analyzing a wide variety of investment returns and better assessing the risks which many investors have preferred to ignore in the search of returns. Many security market regularities or anomalies are discussed including political party and January effects as is the process of building scenarios and using Kelly and fractional Kelly strategies to optimize returns. Contents:Key Concepts:Arbitrage, Risk Arbitrage and the Favorite-Longshot BiasThe Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential ModelInvestor CampsHedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds and Other Investment Agglomerations:Average Hedge Funds and Their EvaluationIncentives and Risk Taking in Hedge FundsEvaluating Superior Hedge FundsInvestment in Own-Company StockCutting Through the Hype on Sovereign Wealth FundsA New Age for LiquidityGovernment Owned Pensions: Asset Allocation and Governance IssuesUpdate on Yale's Approach to Endowment InvestingA Risk Arbitrage Convergence Trade: The Nikkei Put Warrant Market of 1989–90Kelly Capital Growth InvestingInnoALM, the Innovest Austrian Pension Fund Financial Planning ModelSeasonal Effects and Other Anomalies:Investing in the January Turn-of-the-Year Effect with Index FuturesThe January BarometerSell-in-May-and-Go-Away and the Effect of the Fed60–40 Pension Fund Mixes and Presidential Party EffectsVolatility, Correlation and Liquidity:Thoughts on the VIX Fear IndexChanging Correlations: Rising VIX and Violent Market MovesCan We Predict Stock Market Crashes?:Stock Market Crashes in 2006–2009: Were We Able to Predict Them?Three Mini Crashes in US and World Equity MarketsWhat Signals Worked and What Did Not, 1980–2009What Signals Worked and What Did Not, 1980–2009, Part IIWhat Signals Worked and What Did Not, 1980–2009, Part IIIHow to Lose Money in Derivatives and Examples of Those Who DidBubbles and Debt:Understanding the Financial Markets in the Subprime Era: The 2007/9 CrisisBubblesChina: Navigating the Olympic RisksTurkey's Juggling Act: Can It Live Up to Potential?Testing Resiliency: Protest and Natural DisastersIt's a Gas, Gas, Gas!Thoughts on the Current Market Environment, Risks and ReturnsWhat's Wrong with The US?Investing Around the WorldInvesting and Arbitrage in NFL Football and Horse Racing:Blunder or Correct Decision? The Belichick Decision to Go for It on 4th DownThe 2010 and 2011 Super Bowls and the Elo Ranking SystemRisk Arbitrage in the NFL 2012 Playoffs and the Super BowlThe One That Got Away: The Hitable $2 Million Pick 6 at the Breeders' CupTwo Super HorsesFarewell to the Queen and to the Princess of US Thoroughbred RacingThe Dr Z Place and Show Racetrack Betting Systems Past and Present Readership: Hedge fund managers, insurance managers, pension fund managers, mutual fund managers and other investment professionals and investors; students and researchers interested in risk management and investment management; investment strategies. Keywords:Hedge Funds;Sovereign Wealth Funds;Investment Agglomerations;Endowment Investing;Stock Market Crashes and Their Prediction;Global Economic Situation;Global Investment Strategies;Kelly and Fractional Kelly Wagering Strategies;Calendar Anomalies;Political Party;Time of Year EffectsKey Features:Contains case studies of great investment successes and blowouts to better assess explicit and implicit risks and mismatches in maturities and investment horizonDiscusses strategies used by the greatest investors to obtain their high returns and how these can be replicatedAnalyzes hedge fund concepts and performance including major fund disastersContains studies of pivotal economies that will shape the globe and investment prospects in years to comeReviews: "The prolific Ziembas have done it again! These days the markets may move like lightning but Rachel and Bill have no trouble keeping up. You don't need to look any further than this book for crucial information, insights and ideas." Paul Wilmott Mathematician and Author "Puzzled by today's markets and what to expect? Rachel and Bill Ziemba explain what has been happening and sharpen your thinking about future scenarios." Edward O Thorp Author of Beat the Dealer and Beat the Market

*WINNER OF THE 2023 NATIONAL BUSINESS BOOK AWARD* *FINALIST FOR THE 2023 OTTAWA BOOK AWARD* *SHORTLISTED FOR THE SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING* *SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE* NATIONAL BESTSELLER From the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, a far-seeing guide to the powerful economic forces that will shape the decades ahead. The economic ground is shifting beneath our feet. The world is becoming more volatile, and people are understandably worried about their financial futures. In this urgent and accessible guide to the crises and opportunities that lie ahead, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz maps out the powerful tectonic forces that are shaping our future, and the ideas that will allow us to master them. These forces include an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances, too, are adding to the pressure, putting people out of work, and climate change is forcing a transition to a lower-carbon economy. It is no surprise that people are feeling uncertain. The implications of these tectonic tensions will cascade throughout every dimension of our lives—the job market, the housing market, the investment climate, as well as government and central bank policy, and the role of the corporation within society. The pandemic has added momentum to many of them. Poloz skillfully argues that past crises, from the Victorian Depression in the late 1800s to the more recent downturn in 2008, give a hint of what is in store for us in the decades ahead. Unlike the purely destructive power of earthquakes, the upheaval that is sure to come in the decades ahead will offer unexpected opportunities for renewal and growth. Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead.

In this major work, Blumenberg takes issue with Karl Löwith's well-known thesis that the idea of progress is a secularized version of Christian eschatology, which promises a dramatic intervention that will consummate the history of the world from outside. Instead, Blumenberg argues, the idea of progress always implies a process at work within history, operating through an internal logic that ultimately expresses human choices and is legitimized by human self-assertion, by man's responsibility for his own fate.