Rules Reputation And Macroeconomic Policy Coordination

In this book David Currie and Paul Levine address a broad range of issues concerning the design and conduct of macroeconomic policy in open economies. Adopting neo-Keynesian models for which monetary and fiscal policy have short-term real effects, they analyse active stabilisation policies in both a single- and multi-country context. Questions addressed include: the merits of simple policy rules, policy design in the face of uncertainty and international policy coordination. A central feature of the book is the treatment of credibility and the effect of a policy-maker's reputation for sticking to announced policies. These considerations are integrated with coordination issues to produce a unique synthesis. The volume develops optimal control methods and dynamic game theory to handle relationships between governments and a conscious rational private sector and produces a unified, coherent approach to the subject. This book will be of interest to students and teachers of open economy macroeconomics and to professional economists interested in using macroeconomic models to design policy.

The launch of European Monetary Union (EMU) marked the beginning of a new era, and its establishment has proved an impressive success at the technical, legal, and procedural level. After all, EMU has accelerated economic and political integration in the European Union and tied the economies of the Member States closer together. However, the performance of the euro, high unemployment rates, uneven output and investment growth, and the issue of structural reforms that have yet to be tackled have raised questions about the performance of EMU in practice. There is a general consensus on the justification for economic policy coordination. The existing literature on economic policy coordination, however, seems far from able to provide robust conclusions about how to organize the necessary interaction of institutions and policies. Therefore, there seems to be a case for re-examining the subject under the new framework set by EMU. The objective of such a reassessment is to enhance the understanding of what type of coordination and what institutional setting for policy coordination can be expected to be most favorable. Challenges for Economic Policy Coordination within European Monetary Union provides an intellectually stimulating contribution to the ongoing debate.

This book draws together the seminal contributions to the literature on the nature of macroeconomics in open economies and illuminates the material. This is an essential guide to the subject for students.

Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.

Theory of Macroeconomic Policy reviews the theoretical foundations of macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary, policy. It offers a panoramic view of macroeconomic theory, covering a wide range of topics that are not customarily dealt with in macroeconomics texts, as well as more standard material. Advanced theory is bridged with more elementary or intermediate material, and established models are reviewed alongside current research directions. There is an extensive review of empirical evidence on virtually every topic, supplemented by narrative accounts for various episodes. The policy implications of the various theories are emphasised throughout. The chapters are largely self-contained so that different courses can focus at different places. A 'Guidance for Further Study' Section and extensive bibliography give plenty of ideas for all levels of independent study, from Undergraduate Projects to MSc Dissertations to PhD Theses. Theory of Macroeconomic Policy presents a balance between: breadth as well as depth; analytical treatment and intuition; theory and evidence; vintage theories and current directions; theory and policy; (established) theory and debate. Theory of Macroeconomic Policy is an affirmation that there is a well-developed body of theory that is invaluable for an in-depth understanding of the macro-economy and policy; equally, there is much scope for critical discussion and debate.

We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the 'three pillars macroeconomic policy framework': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explicit target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how such monetary-fiscal rules need to be adjusted to accommodate specific features of emerging market economies. The model takes the form of two-blocs, a DSGE emerging small open economy interacting with the rest of the world and features, in particular, financial frictions It is calibrated using Chile and US data. Alongside the optimal Ramsey policy benchmark, we model the three pillars as simple monetary and fiscal rules including and both domestic and CPI inflation targeting interest rate rules alongside a 'Structural Surplus Fiscal Rule' as followed recently in Chile. A comparison with a fixed exchange rate regime is made. We find that domestic inflation targeting is superior to partially or implicitly (through a CPI inflation target) or fully attempting to stabilizing the exchange rate. Financial frictions require fiscal policy to play a bigger role and lead to an increase in the costs associated with simple rules as opposed to the fully optimal policy.

Advanced textbook offering a broad survey of open economy macroeconomics within a unified framework. Rødseth reviews the theories used in government departments, central banks and financial institutions and that form the basis for most quantitative models of open economies. The resulting policy implications are also considered with reference to current European debate. In addition to the theoretical and policy analysis the book also contains a comprehensive survey of the current state of scholarship in this area.