Seismic Performance Risk Analysis For Nuclear Power Plants As Input To Design Decisions

The development of protective measures to guard against the spread of radioactive debris following reactor disasters has been given extensive and careful engineering attention over the past several years. Much of this attention has been devoted to eliminating or minimizing the effects of malfunctions of internal components. But reactors can also suffer externally caused disasters—for example, their radioactive cores can be damaged by earthquakes or by missiles generated by tornadoes. Earthquakes in particular will continue to render man vulnerable even to the "peaceful atom" as the number of nuclear power plants increases and as they come to be located in those parts of the world that have a history of seismic activity. It was to consider such problems that the seminar reported here was held. The conferees, who are leaders in this special and important field, gathered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in spring 1969, to present the papers whose titles are listed below. Together they cover both the theoretical underpinnings of the subject and specific applications to nuclear reactors; they provide both useful summaries of what is known to date and some new thinking on the subject, not before published. Contents: Preface—T. J. Thompson. Foreword—R. J. Hansen. Introduction—R. V. Whitman. Geological and Seismological Factors Influencing the Assessment of a Seismic Threat to Nuclear Reactors—Daniel Linehan, S. J. Geophysics—Keiiti Aki. Design Seismic Inputs—C. Allin Cornell. Some Observations on Probabilistic Methods in the Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants—C. Allin Cornell. Seismic Risk and Seismic Design Decisions—Luis Esteva. Fundamentals of Soil Amplification—J. M. Roesset. Soil Structure Interaction—R. V. Whitman. Evaluation of Soil Properties for Site Evaluation and Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Plants—R. V. Whitman. Structural Response to Seismic Input—J. M. Biggs. Seismic Analysis of Equipment Mounted on a Massive Structure—J. M. Biggs and J. M. Roesset. Modal Response of Containment Structures—Peter Jan Pahl. Provision of Required Seismic Resistance—M. J. Holley, Jr. A Measure of Earthquake Intensity—Arturo Arias. Closure—R. J. Hansen.

A systematic and comprehensive introduction of seismic risk analysis of critical engineering structures, focusing on nuclear power plants.

This Safety Guide provides recommendations on a generally accepted way to design a nuclear power plant so that an earthquake motion at the site will not jeopardize the safety of the plant. It also gives guidance on a consistent application of methods and procedures for analysis, testing and qualification of structures and equipment so that they meet the safety requirements covering the design of nuclear power plants, safety assessments for the design and the regulatory issues concerned with the licensing of plants.

This guide was originally issued as Safety Guide No. 50-SG-S2. It provides details on the design of a nuclear power plant such that earthquakes at the site determined according to Safety Guide No. 50-SG-S1 will not jeopardize its safety.

The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems. The second half of the book covers the safety analysis of nuclear energy systems, an analysis of major accidents and incidents that occurred in commercial nuclear plants, applications of PRA techniques to the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (focusing on a major PRA study for five nuclear power plants), practical PRA examples, and emerging techniques in the structure of dynamic event trees and fault trees that can provide a more realistic representation of complex sequences of events. The book concludes with a discussion on passive safety features of advanced nuclear energy systems under development and approaches taken for risk-informed regulations for nuclear plants.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a structured, comprehensive, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems, such as the nuclear power plants. It is also known as probabilistic risk assessment – PRA. This book presents the theoretical basis to understand the numerous and complex aspects that are covered by PSA and it will help the reader to better understand and to effectively manage risks. The book provides PSA methods and techniques and it includes recommended procedures that are based on the experience of the authors and applicable to different levels and types of PSA that are used for nuclear power plants applications. It can be used as extra reading for PSA courses for practitioners and it provides quantitative risk methodology documentation for PSA.