Selected Topics In Probabilistic Safety Assessment

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a structured, comprehensive, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems, such as the nuclear power plants. It is also known as probabilistic risk assessment – PRA. This book presents the theoretical basis to understand the numerous and complex aspects that are covered by PSA and it will help the reader to better understand and to effectively manage risks. The book provides PSA methods and techniques and it includes recommended procedures that are based on the experience of the authors and applicable to different levels and types of PSA that are used for nuclear power plants applications. It can be used as extra reading for PSA courses for practitioners and it provides quantitative risk methodology documentation for PSA.

A collection of papers presented at the PSAM 7 – ESREL ’04 conference in June 2004, reflecting a wide variety of disciplines, such as principles and theory of reliability and risk analysis, systems modelling and simulation, consequence assessment, human and organisational factors, structural reliability methods, software reliability and safety, insights and lessons from risk studies and management/decision making. This volume covers both well-established practices and open issues in these fields, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and those where more development is needed.

IE-2 > FV 5E-3 > FV IE-3 > FV IE-4 > FV Trun- Total IST and IST Components Total IST FV> IE-2 Type >5E-3 > IE-3 > IE-4 >0 cated IPE Components Not Modeled in PRA Components 11 3 6 5 27 73 100 AOV 2 CV 4 21 24 16 12 77 94 171 4 6 10 HOV 4 34 158 MOV 2 5 35 33 24 25 124 43 43 MV 2 PORV 1 1 2 PUMP 12 5 6 1 3 27 9 36 54 54 SOV SRV 20 3 23 23 Total 39 17 73 61 49 45 284 313 597 ------- --- Table 2. Levell IPEEE Basic Event Importance - Risk Achievement Worth Total IST and (PE IST Components Not Total IST 2>RAW>0 Truncated Type RAW>2 Components Modeled in PRA Components 100 AOV 13 9 5 27 73 CV 52 16 9 77 94 171 4 4 6 10 HOV MOV 60 54 10 124 34 158 43 43 MV PORV 2 2 2 PUMP 24 3 27 9 36 SOV 54 54 SRV 23 23 23 597 Total 155 102 27 284 313 ~~--- -. . j S 702 and 2 includes the following IST component types: pumps, air-operated valves (AOV), check valves (CV), hydraulically-operated valves (HOV), motor-operated valves (MOV), manual valves (MV), pressurizer power-operated relief valves (PORV), solenoid operated valves (SOV), and safety reliefvalves (SRV).

These volumes contain the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 4), held in New York City in September 98. The conference provided a forum for the presentation of innovative methods and applications of risk-based approaches to improve the design and operation of technological systems and processes from the economic and safety points of view. Papers reflect progress made on methods and applications in such areas as modeling and analysis of complex systems, human and organizational performance assessment, software reliability, data collection and analysis, expert judgement modeling and use, identification and assessment of various types of uncertainty, risk-informed regulatory and operational decision making, and public perception of risk. A diverse range of disciplines are represented including aerospace, nuclear, fossil fuels, chemical systems, marine technology, transportation, information technology, medical systems, environment, and defense.

In addition to presenting methodology, it shows how to identify accident vulnerability in the two industries. It reviews the causes of the two major nuclear accidents and many fatal accidents in the chemical industry, including Bhopal. Many examples of applications of PSA to both industries are presented."--BOOK JACKET. "Problems are included at the end of many chapters with answers at the back of the book."--Jacket.

Provides an approach for achieving the technical consistency of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) needed to support various PSA applications. The approach involves the consideration of a set of technical features, called attributes, of the major PSA elements relevant for various applications.

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant underlined the need to assess the nuclear safety of multi-unit sites considering the accident sequences involving more than one reactor units on site. The objective of this Safety Report is to provide a methodology for the development of a Multi-unit Probabilistic Safety Assessment (MUPSA). It provides practical examples and an overview of the actual state of practice in this area. The publication provides a detailed description of Level 1 MUPSA methodology, the principles of development of Level 2 MUPSA models and the path forward for multi-unit consequence analysis (Level 3 MUPSA). In addition, it summarizes the experience available in Member States in the area of MUPSA. The scope of this Safety Report includes consideration of various hazards and plant operational states normally considered in PSA development in the multi-unit context.

A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.