Severe Weather Forecasts

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes affect communities across the U.S. every year, causing fatalities, destroying property and crops, and disrupting businesses. Tornadoes are the most destructive products of severe thunderstorms. Damages from violent tornadoes seem to be increasing, similar to the trend for other natural hazards in part due to changing population, demographics, and more weather-sensitive infrastructure and some analysts indicate that losses of $1 billion or more from single tornado events are becoming more frequent. Insurance industry analysts state that tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and related weather events have caused nearly 57%, on average, of all insured catastrophe losses in the U.S. in any given year since 1953. Contents of this report: (1) Overview; (2) Issues for Congress: A Focus on Local Warnings and Forecasts for the National Weather Service; Mitigation: The National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program; Reauthorizing the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program; Climate Change and Severe Weather: The April and May 2011 Tornados: A Link to Climate Change?; Other Factors Contributing to Risk From Tornadoes; Forecasting and Warning: The Role of the National Weather Service; Summary and Conclusions; Appendix: Risk from Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes. Map and tables. This is a print on demand report.

Tornadoes, nature's most violent and unpredictable storms, descend from the clouds nearly one thousand times yearly and have claimed eighteen thousand American lives since 1880. However, the U.S. Weather Bureau--fearing public panic and believing tornadoes were too fleeting for meteorologists to predict--forbade the use of the word "tornado" in forecasts until 1938. Scanning the Skies traces the history of today's tornado warning system, a unique program that integrates federal, state, and local governments, privately controlled broadcast media, and individuals. Bradford examines the ways in which the tornado warning system has grown from meager beginnings into a program that protects millions of Americans each year. Although no tornado forecasting program existed before WWII, the needs of the military prompted the development of a severe weather warning system in tornado prone areas. Bradford traces the post-war creation of the Air Force centralized tornado forecasting program and its civilian counterpart at the Weather Bureau. Improvements in communication, especially the increasing popularity of television, allowed the Bureau to expand its warning system further. This book highlights the modern tornado watch system and explains how advancements during the latter half of the twentieth-century--such as computerized data collection and processing systems, Doppler radar, state-of-the-art television weather centers, and an extensive public education program--have resulted in the drastic reduction of tornado fatalities.