South Africa 2012 Article Iv Consultation Staff Report Informational Annex Debt Sustainability Analysis Staff Statement Public Information Notice

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s growth has slowed in recent years, specifically relative to other emerging markets. Although weak trading partners’ growth contributed to the slowdown, increasingly binding structural constraints, such as protracted strikes and electricity constraints, have been important factors. Unemployment remains high at 25.5 percent. Notwithstanding expenditure discipline, the general government budget deficit was 4.5 percent of GDP in 2013, and public debt rose to 45 percent of GDP from 27 percent in 2008. The outlook is lackluster with considerable risks. Growth is projected to slow to 1.4 percent in 2014 and rebound only modestly to 2.1 percent in 2015 on improved industrial relations.

The Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation states that the policy pursued by South Africa has resulted in domestic and external stability, despite prevailing adverse circumstances. Given the volatile situation in the world economy as a whole—and Europe in particular—countercyclical monetary policy should be pursued, as fiscal revenue is likely to decline further. The report advocates utmost vigil from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to provide the much needed impetus to the economy by instilling investor confidence and a tight leash on future inflationary trends.

In the wake of the global financial crisis, there has been a worldwide search for alternative investment opportunities, away from advanced markets. The African continent is now one of the fastest-growing economic regions in the world and represents a viable destination for foreign direct and portfolio investment. This book, which is the first comprehensive analysis of financial integration and regulation in Africa, fills a huge gap in the literature on financial regulation and would constitute an invaluable source of information to policy makers, investors, researchers and students of financial regulation from an emerging and frontier markets perspective. It considers how financial integration can facilitate African financial markets to achieve their full potential and provides a comparative study with the EU framework for financial integration and regulation. It assesses the implementation of effective and regional domestic infrastructures and how these can be adapted to suit the African context. The book also provides an assessment of government policies towards the integration of financial regulation in keeping with the regional agenda of the African Union (AU) and the African Economic Community (AEC).

The staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation on Guinea-Bissau highlights the economic development and policies. Guinea-Bissau’s medium-term challenges are to diversify its economy, reduce widespread poverty, and generate employment opportunities. Recurrent internal conflicts have negatively affected economic growth, poverty reduction, and social advancement in Guinea-Bissau. The economic performance will depend critically on establishing a visibly inclusive political process while moving toward demobilization, and professionalization of the military forces. In the baseline, uncertainties about implementation of those conditions suggest scope for only a slow and weak recovery, leaving real per capita incomes below 2011 levels until at least 2016.

Tanzania has weathered the adverse shocks of recent years relatively well. Revenue collection for 2010–11 has fallen short of targets, constraining public spending and contributing to the emergence of arrears. Monetary policy has become less accommodative. The near-term economic outlook is subject to a higher-than-average degree of uncertainty with a rising risk of donor aid shortfalls and higher international fuel prices. Over the medium term, growth could gradually rise to 71⁄2 percent––thanks to large investments in mining and continued growth in the non-mining economy.

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that after significant real economic growth volatility and high inflation through 2009, growth in Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe has become more stable and inflation has reached record low levels. Real economic growth slowed to 4 percent in 2012, reflecting a scaling back of project financing and foreign direct investment as many of São Tomé and Príncipe’s key partners were hard hit by the global economic slowdown. Growth is projected to remain unchanged at 4 percent in 2013 in light of lingering uncertainties stemming from the challenging external environment.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Lebanon highlights that Lebanon’s economic position continues to be very difficult, with very low growth, high public debt and large twin deficits. While financial stability has been maintained, deposit inflows, critical to finance the budget and external deficits, slowed down during the past year, reducing the authorities’ room for manoeuvre. The new government has taken some important policy steps to start the needed policy adjustment, which could help raise confidence among investors and donors. The highest priority is the implementation of a sustainable fiscal adjustment that will bend down the path of the public debt-to-gross domestic product ratio through a combination of revenue and expenditure measures. This needs to be complemented by structural reforms and concessionally financed investment to raise Lebanon’s growth potential and help external adjustment, as well as policies to build further buffers in Lebanon’s financial sector. Structural reforms should prioritize reforming the electricity sector, removing impediments to and lowering the cost of doing business, as well as improving governance and reducing corruption.