South Africa S Demographic Future

This book examines the promises as well as the challenges the demographic dividend brings to sub-Saharan Africa as fertility rates in the region fall and the labor force grows. It offers a detailed analysis of what conditions must be met in order for the region to take full economic advantage of ongoing population dynamics. As the book makes clear, the region will need to accelerate reforms to cope with its demographic transition, in particular the decline of fertility. The continent will need to foster human capital formation through renewed efforts in the areas of education, health and employment. This will entail a true vision and determination on the part of African leaders and their development partners. The book will help readers to gain solid knowledge of the demographic trends and provide insights into socioeconomic policies that eventually might lead sub-Saharan Africa into a successful future.

Africa is poised on the edge of a potential takeoff to sustained economic growth. This takeoff can be abetted by a demographic dividend from the changes in population age structure. Declines in child mortality, followed by declines in fertility, produce a 'bulge' generation and a large number of working age people, giving a boost to the economy. In the short run lower fertility leads to lower youth dependency rates and greater female labor force participation outside the home. Smaller family sizes also mean more resources to invest in the health and education per child boosting worker productivity. In the long run increased life spans from health improvements mean that this large, high-earning cohort will also want to save for retirement, creating higher savings and investments, leading to further productivity gains. Two things are required for the demographic dividend to generate an African economic takeoff. The first is to speed up the fertility decline that is currently slow or stalled in many countries. The second is economic policies that take advantage of the opportunity offered by demography. While demographic change can produce more, and high quality, workers, this potential workforce needs to be productively employed if Africa is to reap the dividend. However, once underway, the relationship between demographic change and human development works in both directions, creating a virtuous cycle that can accelerate fertility decline, social development, and economic growth. Empirical evidence points to three key factors for speeding the fertility transition: child health, female education, and women's empowerment, particularly through access to family planning. Harnessing the dividend requires job creation for the large youth cohorts entering working age, and encouraging foreign investment until domestic savings and investment increase. The appropriate mix of policies in each country depends on their stage of the demographic transition.

In sub-Saharan Africa, older people make up a relatively small fraction of the total population and are supported primarily by family and other kinship networks. They have traditionally been viewed as repositories of information and wisdom, and are critical pillars of the community but as the HIV/AIDS pandemic destroys family systems, the elderly increasingly have to deal with the loss of their own support while absorbing the additional responsibilities of caring for their orphaned grandchildren. Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa explores ways to promote U.S. research interests and to augment the sub-Saharan governments' capacity to address the many challenges posed by population aging. Five major themes are explored in the book such as the need for a basic definition of "older person," the need for national governments to invest more in basic research and the coordination of data collection across countries, and the need for improved dialogue between local researchers and policy makers. This book makes three major recommendations: 1) the development of a research agenda 2) enhancing research opportunity and implementation and 3) the translation of research findings.

A riveting study of Africa's demographics – its youth and growth – and what they mean for the continent, today and into the future. 'Essential reading' Guardian 'Intensely researched – and very important!' The Week 'The research in Youthquake is meticulous' Tim Marshall, Reaction 'Attempts to end the hysteria and ignorance surrounding demographic trends' New Statesman 'Meticulously researched, nuanced and brilliant' Mary Harper Africa's population growth in the last 50 years has been unprecedented. By mid-century, the continent will make up a quarter of the global population, compared to one-tenth in 1980. Africa's youth is the most striking aspect of its demography. As the rest of the world ages, almost 60 per cent of Africa's population is younger than 25 years old. This 'youthquake' will have immense consequences for the social, economic and political reality in Africa. Edward Paice presents a detailed, nuanced analysis of the varied demography of Africa. He rejects the fanciful over-optimism of some commentators and doom-laden prophecies of others, while scrutinising received wisdom, and carefully considering the ramifications of the youthquake for Africa and the world.

Academic Paper from the year 2019 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: A, Kenyatta University, language: English, abstract: This report identifies global megatrends, which have the capacity to significantly influence the core responsibilities of South African government, such as economic prosperity, security, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability. The world is currently experiencing rapid changes in both developed and developing economies. Technology is fastening interconnectedness of people globally while also disrupting long-held assumptions regarding national boundaries. Never in the history of humankind has the information been so instantaneously accessible and communication possible regardless of one’s location on the globe. Furthermore, wealth and prosperity is now spanning many geographic boundaries and civilizations from West to East and from the Northern hemisphere to Southern. In addition, climate change has also become a major global concern in the midst of the rising frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as floods and violent storms. Professor Milo Jones highlights that geopolitical issues will also have a major claim to the future of global economies. For instance, recent reports already indicate that the world is entering a post-Western era with China and India reemerging as global political and economic powers. While acknowledging these changes, it is vital that specific national governments understand these megatrends and how they might affect the country in the years to come. It is also important to note that the impact of these global trends affects countries differently while some of them like climate change is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

This open access textbook offers a critical introduction to human and economic development prospects in Africa revolving around three questions: where is Africa today, what explains the current state, and, given historical trends and what we know about the world, where do we think the continent will be in 2040? And, a final question: what can we do to create a better tomorrow? It models ambitious progress in health, demographics, agriculture, education, industrialization, technological leapfrogging, increased trade, greater stability, better governance and external support. The book reviews the future of work/jobs, poverty and the impact of climate change. A combined Closing the Gap scenario presents a forecast of what could be possible by 2040. Each chapter suggests which policies might accelerate prospects for each sector. Written in an accessible style, and supported by a range of pedagogical features, this textbook introduces undergraduate and graduate students to the contemporary human and economic development prospects in Africa.