States Scarcity And Civil Strife In The Developing World

Over the past several decades, civil and ethnic wars have undermined prospects for economic and political development, destabilized entire regions of the globe, and left millions dead. States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World argues that demographic and environmental stress--the interactions among rapid population growth, environmental degradation, inequality, and emerging scarcities of vital natural resources--represents one important source of turmoil in today's world. Kahl contends that this type of stress places enormous strains on both societies and governments in poor countries, increasing their vulnerability to armed conflict. He identifies two pathways whereby this process unfolds: state failure and state exploitation. State failure conflicts occur when population growth, environmental degradation, and resource inequality weaken the capacity, legitimacy, and cohesion of governments, thereby expanding the opportunities and incentives for rebellion and intergroup violence. State exploitation conflicts, in contrast, occur when political leaders themselves capitalize on the opportunities arising from population pressures, natural resource scarcities, and related social grievances to instigate violence that serves their parochial interests. Drawing on a wide array of social science theory, this book argues that demographically and environmentally induced conflicts are most likely to occur in countries that are deeply split along ethnic, religious, regional, or class lines, and which have highly exclusive and discriminatory political systems. The empirical portion of the book evaluates the theoretical argument through in-depth case studies of civil strife in the Philippines, Kenya, and numerous other countries. The book concludes with an analysis of the challenges demographic and environmental change will pose to international security in the decades ahead.

The Earth's human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Thomas Homer-Dixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. Homer-Dixon synthesizes work from a wide range of international research projects to develop a detailed model of the sources of environmental scarcity. He refers to water shortages in China, population growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and land distribution in Mexico, for example, to show that scarcities stem from the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased demand for these resources, and/or their unequal distribution. He shows that these scarcities can lead to deepened poverty, large-scale migrations, sharpened social cleavages, and weakened institutions. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in Chiapas, Mexico and ongoing turmoil in many African and Asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity. Homer-Dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. But he argues that the violent consequences of scarcity should not be underestimated--especially when about half the world's population depends directly on local renewables for their day-to-day well-being. In the next decades, he writes, growing scarcities will affect billions of people with unprecedented severity and at an unparalleled scale and pace. Clearly written and forcefully argued, this book will become the standard work on the complex relationship between environmental scarcities and human violence.

The Earth's human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Thomas Homer-Dixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. Homer-Dixon synthesizes work from a wide range of international research projects to develop a detailed model of the sources of environmental scarcity. He refers to water shortages in China, population growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and land distribution in Mexico, for example, to show that scarcities stem from the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased demand for these resources, and/or their unequal distribution. He shows that these scarcities can lead to deepened poverty, large-scale migrations, sharpened social cleavages, and weakened institutions. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in Chiapas, Mexico and ongoing turmoil in many African and Asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity. Homer-Dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and aneducated populace. But he argues that the violent consequences of scarcity should not be underestimated--especially when about half the world's population depends directly on local renewables for their day-to-day well-being. In the next decades, he writes, growing scarcities will affect billions of people with unprecedented severity and at an unparalleled scale and pace. Clearly written and forcefully argued, this book will become the standard work on the complex relationship between environmental scarcities and human violence.

Extreme poverty exhausts institutions, depletes resources, weakens leadership, and ultimately contributes to rising insecurity and conflict. Just as poverty begets insecurity, however, the reverse is also true. As the destabilizing effects of conflict settle in, civil institutions are undermined and poverty proliferates. Breaking this nexus between poverty and conflict is one of the biggest challenges of the twenty-first century. The authors of this compelling book—some of the most experienced practitioners from around the world—investigate the complex and dynamic relationship between poverty and insecurity, exploring possible agents for change. They bring the latest lessons and intellectual framework to bear in an examination of African leadership, the private sector, and American foreign aid as vehicles for improving economic conditions and security. Contributors include Colin Kahl (University of Minnesota),Vinca LaFleur (Vinca LaFleur Communications), Edward Miguel (University of California, Berkeley), Jane Nelson (Harvard University and Brookings), Anthony Nyong (University of Jos and the International Development Research Centre, Nairobi), Susan Rice (Brookings), Robert Rotberg (Harvard University and the World Peace Foundation), Marc Sommers (Tufts University), Hendrik Urdal (International Peace Research Institute), and Jennifer Windsor (Freedom House).

Two of America's leading national security experts offer a definitive account of the global impact of COVID-19 and the political shock waves it will have on the United States and the world order in the 21st Century. “Informed by history, reporting, and a truly global perspective, this is an indispensable first draft of history and blueprint for how we can move forward.” —Ben Rhodes The COVID-19 pandemic killed millions, infected hundreds of millions, and laid bare the deep vulnerabilities and inequalities of our interconnected world. The accompanying economic crash was the worst since the Great Depression, with the International Monetary Fund estimating that it will cost over $22 trillion in global wealth over the next few years. Over two decades of progress in reducing extreme poverty was erased, just in the space of a few months. Already fragile states in every corner of the globe were further hollowed out. The brewing clash between the United States and China boiled over and the worldwide contest between democracy and authoritarianism deepened. It was a truly global crisis necessitating a collective response—and yet international cooperation almost entirely broke down, with key world leaders hardly on speaking terms. Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright's Aftershocks offers a riveting and comprehensive account of one of the strangest and most consequential years on record. Drawing on interviews with officials from around the world and extensive research, the authors tell the story of how nationalism and major power rivalries constrained the response to the worst pandemic in a century. They demonstrate the myriad ways in which the crisis exposed the limits of the old international order and how the reverberations from COVID-19 will be felt for years to come.

ÔThe Elgar Handbook of Civil War and Fragile States is an impressive volume. Its distinguished contributors offer a rich menu of courses, ranging from conflict and war to peacemaking, transitional justice, peacekeeping, and powersharing. Encyclopedic in its scope, the volume encompasses many different approaches to stimulate and provoke the careful reader. It serves up a feast for scholars and policymakers alike.Õ Ð Donald L. Horowitz, Duke University, US The Elgar Handbook of Civil War and Fragile States brings together contributions from a multidisciplinary group of internationally renowned scholars on such important issues as the causes of violent conflicts and state fragility, the challenges of conflict resolution and mediation, and the obstacles to post-conflict reconstruction and durable peace-building. While other companion volumes exist, this detailed and comprehensive book brings together an unrivalled range of disciplinary perspectives, including development economists, quantitative and qualitative political scientists, and sociologists. Topical chapters include; Post-Conflict and State Fragility, Ethnicity, Human Security, Poverty and Conflict, Economic Dimensions of Civil War, Climate Change and Armed Conflict, Rebel Recruitment, Education and Violent Conflict, Obstacles to Peace Settlements and many others. With detailed and comprehensive coverage, this Handbook will appeal to postgraduate and undergraduate students, policymakers, researchers and academics in conflict and peace studies, international relations, international politics and security studies.

Transboundary watercourses account for an estimated 60 per cent of global freshwater flow and support the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people worldwide. Yet the indeterminate status of water rights in many international watercourses presents a problem and many attempts to resolve water rights issue have failed. Knowing how and where negotiations fail is essential if successful resolution is to be achieved. Muserref Yetim's important book seeks to illustrate a means to the peaceful resolution of natural resource based conflicts. Through a detailed study of the Tigris-Euphrates water conflict, involving Turkey, Syria and Iraq, countries of vital security interest to the world at large, the author clarifies the collective action dilemmas confronting Middle Eastern watercourses and reveals the bargaining bottlenecks where negotiations fail. She develops an original framework that explains bargaining failures and proposes conditions for creating a new property rights regime among watercourse states that offers a route to governing their shared water resources in ways that are politically, economically and environmentally sound. In almost all water scarce regions, international water resources are subject to intense unilateral exploitation in a highly competitive fashion. And as demand for freshwater continues to increase, through increasing urbanization and the continuing development of societies, so the issue of how such shared water resources can best be governed is becoming vitally important. Negotiating International Water Rights offers both a timely contribution to a matter of international concern and important insights into resource conflict in countries of vital security interest to the world at large.

The majority of developing countries in the Global South are evidently rich in natural resources, but paradoxically blighted by excruciating poverty and conflicts. This paradox of deprivation and war in the midst of plenteous resources has been the subject of great debate in international political economy in contemporary history. This book contributes to the debate by examining the underlying structures, actors and contexts of rentier politics and how they often produce and aggravate conflicts in the various extractive economies and regions of the Global South. The book critically explores the theories of rentier economies and natural resource conflicts, as well as the practical ramifications of rentier politics in the Global South with all their resonance for political economy and security in the Global North.