Statistical Modeling A Fresh Approach

"Statistical Modeling: A Fresh Approach introduces and illuminates the statistical reasoning used in modern research throughout the natural and social sciences, medicine, government, and commerce. It emphasizes the use of models to untangle and quantify variation in observed data. By a deft and concise use of computing coupled with an innovative geometrical presentation of the relationship among variables. A Fresh Approach reveals the logic of statistical inference and empowers the reader to use and understand techniques such as analysis of covariance that appear widely in published research but are hardly ever found in introductory texts."-- book cover

The 2nd edition (green cover) is now available and the first edition (brown cover) is now obsolete. The new edition makes use of the MOSAIC package in R (see www.mosaic-web.org/StatisticalModeling) introduces inference earlier, and incorporates suggestions and corrections offered by readers of the first edition. We continue to make the first edition available for students seeking to match the book used in a class that still uses the first edition. Statistical Modeling: A Fresh Approach introduces and illuminates the statistical reasoning used in modern research throughout the natural and social sciences, medicine, government, and commerce. It emphasizes the use of models to untangle and quantify variation in observed data. By a deft and concise use of computing coupled with an innovative geometrical presentation of the relationship among variables, A Fresh Approach reveals the logic of statistical inference and empowers the reader to use and understand techniques such as analysis of covariance that are widely used in published research but hardly ever found in introductory texts.Recognizing the essential role the computer plays in modern statistics, A Fresh Approach provides a complete and self-contained introduction to statistical computing using the powerful (and free) statistics package R.Exercises, software and datasets for the book are available at http://www.mosaic-web.org/StatisticalModeling.

This book is a fresh approach to a calculus based, first course in probability and statistics, using R throughout to give a central role to data and simulation. The book introduces probability with Monte Carlo simulation as an essential tool. Simulation makes challenging probability questions quickly accessible and easily understandable. Mathematical approaches are included, using calculus when appropriate, but are always connected to experimental computations. Using R and simulation gives a nuanced understanding of statistical inference. The impact of departure from assumptions in statistical tests is emphasized, quantified using simulations, and demonstrated with real data. The book compares parametric and non-parametric methods through simulation, allowing for a thorough investigation of testing error and power. The text builds R skills from the outset, allowing modern methods of resampling and cross validation to be introduced along with traditional statistical techniques. Fifty-two data sets are included in the complementary R package fosdata. Most of these data sets are from recently published papers, so that you are working with current, real data, which is often large and messy. Two central chapters use powerful tidyverse tools (dplyr, ggplot2, tidyr, stringr) to wrangle data and produce meaningful visualizations. Preliminary versions of the book have been used for five semesters at Saint Louis University, and the majority of the more than 400 exercises have been classroom tested.

To date, statistics has tended to be neatly divided into two theoretical approaches or frameworks: frequentist (or classical) and Bayesian. Scientists typically choose the statistical framework to analyse their data depending on the nature and complexity of the problem, and based on their personal views and prior training on probability and uncertainty. Although textbooks and courses should reflect and anticipate this dual reality, they rarely do so. This accessible textbook explains, discusses, and applies both the frequentist and Bayesian theoretical frameworks to fit the different types of statistical models that allow an analysis of the types of data most commonly gathered by life scientists. It presents the material in an informal, approachable, and progressive manner suitable for readers with only a basic knowledge of calculus and statistics. Statistical Modeling with R is aimed at senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners throughout the life sciences, seeking to strengthen their understanding of quantitative methods and to apply them successfully to real world scenarios, whether in the fields of ecology, evolution, environmental studies, or computational biology.

The idea of writing this bookarosein 2000when the ?rst author wasassigned to teach the required course STATS 240 (Statistical Methods in Finance) in the new M. S. program in ?nancial mathematics at Stanford, which is an interdisciplinary program that aims to provide a master’s-level education in applied mathematics, statistics, computing, ?nance, and economics. Students in the programhad di?erent backgroundsin statistics. Some had only taken a basic course in statistical inference, while others had taken a broad spectrum of M. S. - and Ph. D. -level statistics courses. On the other hand, all of them had already taken required core courses in investment theory and derivative pricing, and STATS 240 was supposed to link the theory and pricing formulas to real-world data and pricing or investment strategies. Besides students in theprogram,thecoursealso attractedmanystudentsfromother departments in the university, further increasing the heterogeneity of students, as many of them had a strong background in mathematical and statistical modeling from the mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences but no previous experience in ?nance. To address the diversity in background but common strong interest in the subject and in a potential career as a “quant” in the ?nancialindustry,thecoursematerialwascarefullychosennotonlytopresent basic statistical methods of importance to quantitative ?nance but also to summarize domain knowledge in ?nance and show how it can be combined with statistical modeling in ?nancial analysis and decision making. The course material evolved over the years, especially after the second author helped as the head TA during the years 2004 and 2005.

Traditional statistical methods are limited in their ability to meet the modern challenge of mining large amounts of data. Data miners, analysts, and statisticians are searching for innovative new data mining techniques with greater predictive power, an attribute critical for reliable models and analyses. Statistical Modeling and Analysis fo

This lively and engaging book explains the things you have to know in order to read empirical papers in the social and health sciences, as well as the techniques you need to build statistical models of your own. The discussion in the book is organized around published studies, as are many of the exercises. Relevant journal articles are reprinted at the back of the book. Freedman makes a thorough appraisal of the statistical methods in these papers and in a variety of other examples. He illustrates the principles of modelling, and the pitfalls. The discussion shows you how to think about the critical issues - including the connection (or lack of it) between the statistical models and the real phenomena. The book is written for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students in statistics, as well as students and professionals in the social and health sciences.