Stock Market Developments In The Countries Of The Gulf Cooperation Council

"This book provides an analysis of the structural strengths and weaknesses of the Gulf stock markets and the appropriateness of policies implemented. It examines the effect of the 2006 correction on financial stability and economic growth and explains the differences in performance of some regional markets. This research integrates for the first time under a homogenous methodology the systematic analysis of all stock markets in the Gulf, identifies common trends and causes for differential behaviour and constitutes a key contribution toward the understanding of the functioning of the Gulf stock exchanges by domestic and foreign investors."--BOOK JACKET.

A thriving capital market, one that not only brings investment funds into a country but also distributes profits in a transparent manner, is essential for any economy, especially a rapidly developing one such as Saudi Arabia. Already a key player on the world stage, the Kingdom is going through a major planned economic transformation and diversification. In particular, a robust and transparent capital market, with a high level of integrity and sound enforcement, is well on the way to fruition. This book is the first in English to analyse and evaluate the roles of economic planning and a capital market in Saudi Arabia’s economic modernization. In the process of examining the level of transparency and fairness in Saudi Arabia’s capital market, the author provides detailed information and analysis of such issues and topics as the following: – market disclosure rules; – insider trading laws; – gaps in enforcement; – dispute resolution; – role of securities agencies; – Saudi Arabia’s position in international organizations; and – repercussions of the 2006 Saudi stock market collapse. The author draws on a wide range of sources in both English and Arabic, and concludes with well-grounded proposals for appropriate judicial, administrative, and enforcement policies. Investors, their management and attorneys, and other advisors with an eye on trade development in the Middle East will derive great benefit from the current and detailed information in this book. Lawyers and policymakers will discover all they need to know about the Saudi capital market, its developing trends, and applicable laws.

Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.

This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.

Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.

This volume comprises two separate papers on key structural aspects of the reform process in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The first paper addresses issues related to financial intermediation and reform in the context of the evolving economic environment in the GCC countries. The second discusses the labor market challenges and policy issues in the GCC countries and their implications for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

An original and empirically grounded analysis of the Gulf monarchies and their role in shaping the political economy of the Middle East.

"Financial systems in the GCC have developed significantly over the last couple of decades, but there appears to be further room for progress. The development of bank and equity markets has been supported by a combination of buoyant economic activity, a booming Islamic finance sector, and financial sector reforms. As a result, financial systems have deepened and, overall, the level of financial development compares well with emerging markets. However, it still lags advanced economies and, other than for Saudi Arabia, appears to be lower than would be expected given economic fundamentals, such as income levels. Financial development in the GCC has relied to a large extent on banks, while debt markets and nonbank financial institutions are less developed and access to equity markets is narrow. The non-bank financial institutions—pension funds, asset management and finance companies, and insurance—remain small. Domestic debt markets are underdeveloped. While equity markets appear to be well developed by market size, they are dominated by a few large (and often public-sector) companies. GCC countries have made progress on financial inclusion, but gaps remain in some important areas. Access to finance for SMEs, women, and youth, in particular, appears relatively low. This may partly reflect social norms, low levels of participation of women in the labor market and private sector activity, and the high level of youth unemployment. Further financial development and inclusion is likely to be associated with stronger economic growth in the GCC countries. While there is uncertainty surrounding the empirical estimates in the paper, further progress with financial development and/or inclusion is likely to go hand-in-hand with stronger growth. The growth benefits, however, are likely to vary across countries depending on the current level of financial development and inclusion. To realize these growth benefits, reforms to strengthen access to finance for SMEs, women, and youth are needed. Addressing institutional weaknesses and promoting financial sector competition would help boost access to finance for SMEs. Reforms to enhance financial literacy and improve SME governance structures and insolvency frameworks are critical. Other reforms encouraging female and youth employment and the use of emerging technologies in finance also appear promising. Additional reforms to foster financial development should focus on developing debt markets and making stock markets more accessible to a larger pool of companies and investors. To grow domestic debt markets, the authorities should develop a government yield curve, seek to increase market liquidity through secondary market trading, and ensure requirements for private issuance are not onerous. Stock market reforms should focus on enhancing corporate governance and investor protection, removing restrictions on foreign ownership, and encouraging financial market competition. The latter would also help the development of non-bank financial institutions."