Stock Price Analysis Through Statistical And Data Science Tools An Overview

Stock price analysis involves different methods such as fundamental analysis and technical analysis which is based on data related to price movement of the stock in the past. Price of the stock is affected by various factors such as company’s performance, current status of economy and political factor. These factors play an important role in supply and demand of the stock which makes the price to be volatile in the short term. Investors and stock traders aim to book profit through buying and selling the stocks. There are different statistical and data science tools are being used to predict the stock price. Data Science and Statistical tools assume only the stock price’s historical data in predicting the future stock price. Statistical tools include measures such as Graph and Charts which depicts the general trend and time series tools such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) and regression analysis. Data Science tools include models like Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Term and Short Term Memory (LSTM) Models. Current methods include carrying out sentiment analysis of tweets, comments and other social media discussion to extract the hidden sentiment expressed by the users which indicate the positive or negative sentiment towards the stock price and the company. The book provides an overview of the analyzing and predicting stock price movements using statistical and data science tools using R open source software with hypothetical stock data sets. It provides a short introduction to R software to enable the user to understand analysis part in the later part. The book will not go into details of suggesting when to purchase a stock or what at price. The tools presented in the book can be used as a guiding tool in decision making while buying or selling the stock. Vinaitheerthan Renganathan www.vinaitheerthan.com/book.php

Statistical methods are being used in different fields such as Business & Economics, Engineering, Clinical & Pharmaceutical research including the emerging fields such as Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. Statistical methods based on the traditional frequentist approach are currently being use in these fields. With the emergence of high end computing nowadays Bayesian approach to Statistical Methods also being used in different fields. Bayesian approach involves prior, likelihood and posterior concepts in carrying out the statistical analysis. Bayesian methods assume model parameters as random as opposed to fixed in frequentist approach. It is useful even when the sample size is small. One of the drawbacks of Bayesian method is it involves subjectivity in carrying out the analysis. With the availability of advanced computing technologies, implementation of Bayesian methods is possible using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This book provides an overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical methods and uses open source software R for carrying out analysis using sample data sets which can be downloaded from author’s website.

Statistical methods are a key part of of data science, yet very few data scientists have any formal statistics training. Courses and books on basic statistics rarely cover the topic from a data science perspective. This practical guide explains how to apply various statistical methods to data science, tells you how to avoid their misuse, and gives you advice on what's important and what's not. Many data science resources incorporate statistical methods but lack a deeper statistical perspective. If you’re familiar with the R programming language, and have some exposure to statistics, this quick reference bridges the gap in an accessible, readable format. With this book, you’ll learn: Why exploratory data analysis is a key preliminary step in data science How random sampling can reduce bias and yield a higher quality dataset, even with big data How the principles of experimental design yield definitive answers to questions How to use regression to estimate outcomes and detect anomalies Key classification techniques for predicting which categories a record belongs to Statistical machine learning methods that “learn” from data Unsupervised learning methods for extracting meaning from unlabeled data

Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.

Data science and analytics have emerged as the most desired fields in driving business decisions. Using the techniques and methods of data science, decision makers can uncover hidden patterns in their data, develop algorithms and models that help improve processes and make key business decisions. Data science is a data driven decision making approach that uses several different areas and disciplines with a purpose of extracting insights and knowledge from structured and unstructured data. The algorithms and models of data science along with machine learning and predictive modeling are widely used in solving business problems and predicting future outcomes. This book combines the key concepts of data science and analytics to help you gain a practical understanding of these fields. The four different sections of the book are divided into chapters that explain the core of data science. Given the booming interest in data science, this book is timely and informative.

An essential introduction to data analytics and Machine Learning techniques in the business sector In Financial Data Analytics with Machine Learning, Optimization and Statistics, a team consisting of a distinguished applied mathematician and statistician, experienced actuarial professionals and working data analysts delivers an expertly balanced combination of traditional financial statistics, effective machine learning tools, and mathematics. The book focuses on contemporary techniques used for data analytics in the financial sector and the insurance industry with an emphasis on mathematical understanding and statistical principles and connects them with common and practical financial problems. Each chapter is equipped with derivations and proofs—especially of key results—and includes several realistic examples which stem from common financial contexts. The computer algorithms in the book are implemented using Python and R, two of the most widely used programming languages for applied science and in academia and industry, so that readers can implement the relevant models and use the programs themselves. The book begins with a brief introduction to basic sampling theory and the fundamentals of simulation techniques, followed by a comparison between R and Python. It then discusses statistical diagnosis for financial security data and introduces some common tools in financial forensics such as Benford's Law, Zipf's Law, and anomaly detection. The statistical estimation and Expectation-Maximization (EM) & Majorization-Minimization (MM) algorithms are also covered. The book next focuses on univariate and multivariate dynamic volatility and correlation forecasting, and emphasis is placed on the celebrated Kelly's formula, followed by a brief introduction to quantitative risk management and dependence modelling for extremal events. A practical topic on numerical finance for traditional option pricing and Greek computations immediately follows as well as other important topics in financial data-driven aspects, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and recommender systems with their applications, as well as advanced regression learners such as kernel regression and logistic regression, with discussions on model assessment methods such as simple Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Area Under Curve (AUC) for typical classification problems. The book then moves on to other commonly used machine learning tools like linear classifiers such as perceptrons and their generalization, the multilayered counterpart (MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM), as well as Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Random Forests. Subsequent chapters focus on linear Bayesian learning, including well-received credibility theory in actuarial science and functional kernel regression, and non-linear Bayesian learning, such as the Naïve Bayes classifier and the Comonotone-Independence Bayesian Classifier (CIBer) recently independently developed by the authors and used successfully in InsurTech. After an in-depth discussion on cluster analyses such as K-means clustering and its inversion, the K-nearest neighbor (KNN) method, the book concludes by introducing some useful deep neural networks for FinTech, like the potential use of the Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) for stock price prediction. This book can help readers become well-equipped with the following skills: To evaluate financial and insurance data quality, and use the distilled knowledge obtained from the data after applying data analytic tools to make timely financial decisions To apply effective data dimension reduction tools to enhance supervised learning To describe and select suitable data analytic tools as introduced above for a given dataset depending upon classification or regression prediction purpose The book covers the competencies tested by several professional examinations, such as the Predictive Analytics Exam offered by the Society of Actuaries, and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' Actuarial Statistics Exam. Besides being an indispensable resource for senior undergraduate and graduate students taking courses in financial engineering, statistics, quantitative finance, risk management, actuarial science, data science, and mathematics for AI, Financial Data Analytics with Machine Learning, Optimization and Statistics also belongs in the libraries of aspiring and practicing quantitative analysts working in commercial and investment banking.

Designed for a one-semester advanced undergraduate or graduate statistical theory course, Statistical Theory: A Concise Introduction, Second Edition clearly explains the underlying ideas, mathematics, and principles of major statistical concepts, including parameter estimation, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, asymptotic analysis, Bayesian inference, linear models, nonparametric statistics, and elements of decision theory. It introduces these topics on a clear intuitive level using illustrative examples in addition to the formal definitions, theorems, and proofs. Based on the authors’ lecture notes, the book is self-contained, which maintains a proper balance between the clarity and rigor of exposition. In a few cases, the authors present a "sketched" version of a proof, explaining its main ideas rather than giving detailed technical mathematical and probabilistic arguments. Features: Second edition has been updated with a new chapter on Nonparametric Estimation; a significant update to the chapter on Statistical Decision Theory; and other updates throughout No requirement for heavy calculus, and simple questions throughout the text help students check their understanding of the material Each chapter also includes a set of exercises that range in level of difficulty Self-contained, and can be used by the students to understand the theory Chapters and sections marked by asterisks contain more advanced topics and may be omitted Special chapters on linear models and nonparametric statistics show how the main theoretical concepts can be applied to well-known and frequently used statistical tools The primary audience for the book is students who want to understand the theoretical basis of mathematical statistics—either advanced undergraduate or graduate students. It will also be an excellent reference for researchers from statistics and other quantitative disciplines.

This Book, through its various chapters presenting the Recent Advances in Modern Artificial Intelligence and Data Science as well as their Applications, aims to set up lasting and real applications necessary for both academics and professionals. Readers find here the fruit of many research ideas covering a wide range of application areas that can be explored for the advancement of their research or the development of their business. These ideas present new techniques and trends projected in various areas of daily life. Through its proposals of new ideas, this Book serves as a real guide both for experienced readers and for beginners in these specialized fields. It also covers several applications that explain how they can support some societal challenges such as education, health, agriculture, clean energy, business, environment, security and many more. This Book is therefore intended for Designers, Developers, Decision-Makers, Consultants, Engineers, and of course Master's/Doctoral Students, Researchers and Academics.