Strategic Appraisal 1996

Today, the United States possesses military predominance, and American political and economic ideas have broad global appeal. Almost all of the economically capable nations are our allies. Yet the end of the Cold War has also brought an increase in disorder as a result of the rise in ethnic nationalism and the fragmentation of several states. And these are not the only complications in the current strategic situation. The old U.S. grand strategy--its stand against the Soviet Union--has become moot, and a new one must be devised in the face of a changing world. This book discusses this need and examines three possible strategies. It goes on to discuss the complexities of current geopolitical trends and describes the demands these situations might place on the U.S. military and, in particular, the Air Force.

Advances in information technology have led us to rely on easy communication and readily available information--both in our personal lives and in the life of our nation. For the most part, we have rightly welcomed these changes. But information that is readily available is available to friend and foe alike; a system that relies on communication can become useless if its ability to communicate is interfered with or destroyed. Because this reliance is so general, attacks on the information infrastructure can have widespread effects, both for the military and for society. And such attacks can come from a variety of sources, some difficult or impossible to identify. This, the third volume in the Strategic Appraisal series, draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore the opportunities and vulnerabilities inherent in the increasing reliance on information technology, looking both at its usefulness to the warrior and the need to protect its usefulness for everyone. The Strategic Appraisal series is intended to review, for a broad audience, issues bearing on national security and defense planning.

For U.S. defense planners, these are the best of times and the worst of times. On the one hand, with the collapse of our erstwhile Cold War adversary, basic questions of national security strategy are once again in play. In light of this change, there has never been greater scope for reviewing U.S. national objectives and threats to them, creatively weighing these against resources available, and crafting a strategy suitable to new and emerging conditions. At the same time, extraordinary developments emerging from the technology base are opening up possibilities for radically new ways of conducting military operations. Taken together, these trends should spark a wide-ranging set of debates about the best way for this nation to go about protecting and advancing its interests in the future, the roles that military power should play in U.S. national security strategy, and the appropriate size and mix of U.S. military forces. Yet, to date, these debates have seemed constricted, if not stillborn. Perhaps one reason for this is that Americans have not yet embraced a broad set of guiding objectives for U.S. foreign policy and security strategy. Too, the shrinking of the defense budget poses a seemingly endless set of management challenges as we try to downsize the defense establishment without severely disrupting the activities of commanders and forces in the field. Resource constraints have also heightened sensitivities, so that at the level of military force structure and program analysis, it is difficult to escape the feeling that every position is evaluated first through the lens of Service parochialism.

This comprehensive 2002 book is an overview of security issues in the Asia-Pacific. It is also an argument for a strategy that promises to achieve greater regional stability. It argues that current approaches by policy-makers increase the likelihood of conflict. Instead, it proposes that a strategy of 'convergent security' be adopted to build a more enduring and peaceful regional security framework. A concise survey of key approaches to regional security politics, it presents a vast selection of empirical discussion, both historical and current. Assessing the outlook for the three powers most likely to vie for regional dominance - the United States, China and Japan - the book also reviews the prospects for other secondary powers, including Korea and Taiwan and analyses the role of Australia and the ASEAN nations of Southeast Asia. Unique, accessible, authoritative and broad-ranging survey designed for a wide body of analysts and students of contemporary Asian politics and strategy.

Over the past few years the Department of Defense has been intensifying its study of the global security situation, U.S. force posture, and future defense requirements. The National Defense University contributes to this dialog through Strategic Assessment, an annual publication which applies the expertise of this institution through the leadership of its interdisciplinary research arm, the Institute for National Strategic Studies, with the assistance of specialists from elsewhere in government and academe. Offering such analyses, in both general and particular areas of interest to the national security community is an important aspect of the NDU mission. This volume examines various approaches that the United States might adopt to shape the strategic environment of the future. The current environment is characterized by instability and change. The U.S. Government needs to apply the full range of options at its disposal to achieve national goals and ensure the peace and stability required to preserve our rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. But such options must be studied and conceptualized for years (and in some cases, decades) in advance to take advantage of the opportunities presented by a changing global environment. The recent Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) recommended a series of defense posture changes. This volume reviews these recommendations and takes the next analytical step, to propose what is entailed by such changes. Strategic Assessment 1998: Engaging Power for Peace should prove useful beyond the defense establishment, to all readers with an interest in national security affairs.

In the last few years, competition has become increasingly more complex, variable and dynamic, as can be seen in phenomena like globalization and technological acceleration. To cope with the dynamism and uncertainty of competition, enterprises need capabilities that enable them to respond to competition, as well as to improve their analytical skills and knowledge in order to better manage new strategic projects. Strategic analysis uses both quantitative and qualitative tools to understand both competitive contexts and available company resources. In Strategic Analysis: Processes and Tools, author Andrea Beretta Zanoni develops a theory of strategic analysis and offers models for the application of strategic analysis tools during all phases of the process including planning and decision-making, the development of control, and the formulation of a strategic diagnosis.

This Assessment is aimed at policymakers, analysts, and members of the public who want a serious summary of the threats facing the U.S. in the next decade. Contents: major powers (Russia, Europe, China, Japan, North America); significant regional contingencies (Persian Gulf, Korean peninsula, Arab-Israel conflict, India-Pakistan, proliferation); troubled states (Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle Eastern radicalism); transnational problems (international terrorism; international crime; refugees, migration, and population); force structure (threat assessment, key military missions, force structure). Illustrated.