Survival February March 2022

Survival, the IISS’s bimonthly journal, challenges conventional wisdom and brings fresh, often controversial, perspectives on strategic issues of the moment. In this issue: · The Ukraine crisis: Robert Hunter argues that the most important requirement of successful US-led negotiations with Russia is that Moscow demonstrate that it is prepared to be a responsible international actor · Erin Sikorsky contends that climate change should have a larger role in the day-to-day national-security agendas of the United States and other countries · Stephan Frühling and Andrew O’Neil warn that current US debates about no first use tend to underplay the broader alliance implications of any shift in US nuclear policy · Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and Kate Sullivan de Estrada assess that, given the 2021 US FONOP targeting India, Washington and New Delhi need to better manage their diverse positions on global governance, especially in the maritime domain · Nien-chung Chang-Liao warns that pragmatism in Chinese foreign policy is waning and considers why Chinese diplomats have become so aggressive And nine more thought-provoking pieces, as well as our regular Book Reviews and Noteworthy column. Editor: Dr Dana Allin Managing Editor: Jonathan Stevenson Associate Editor: Carolyn West Assistant Editor: Jessica Watson

Survival, the IISS’s bimonthly journal, challenges conventional wisdom and brings fresh, often controversial, perspectives on strategic issues of the moment. In this issue: Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman highlight the pitfalls of grafting a Western manoeuvre-oriented approach to war onto the Russia–Ukraine conflict Irene Mia examines the chasm between Javier Milei’s dramatic rhetoric and the domestic and international obstacles he faces to changing Argentina’s foreign and economic policies Edoardo Campanella and John Haigh outline the necessity of meaningful dialogue between the West and China to prevent the internet’s fragmentation John Raine assesses the geopolitical trends that the Gaza war has set in motion and the issues they create for Ukraine’s defence against Russia And seven more thought-provoking pieces, as well as our regular Book Reviews and Noteworthy column. Editor: Dr Dana Allin Managing Editor: Jonathan Stevenson Associate Editor: Carolyn West Editorial Assistant: Conor Hodges

"We don't yet know where the current battle is headed. But Puri's 'first cut' will help us greatly in fathoming how we got here." – Patrick Porter, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham *** When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, many in the West were left stunned at his act of brutal imperialism. To those who had been paying attention, however, the warning signs of the bloodshed and slaughter to come had been there for years. Tracing the relationship between the two countries from the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 to Putin's invasion in 2022, what emerges from this gripping and accessible book is a portrait of a nation caught in a geopolitical tug of war between Russia and the West. While Russia is identified as the sole aggressor, we see how Western bodies such as the EU and NATO unrealistically raised Ukraine's expectations of membership before dashing them, leaving Ukraine without formal allies and fatally exposed to Russian aggression. As a former international observer, Samir Puri was present for several of the major events covered in this book. He uses this experience to ask honestly: how did we get here? Why does Vladimir Putin view Ukraine as the natural property of Russia? Did the West handle its dealings with these countries prudently? Or did it inflame the tensions left amidst the ruins of the Soviet Union? Were there any missed opportunities to avert the war? And how might this conflict end?