Systemic Transformation Trade And Economic Growth

Since the late 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) have been involved in the transition process. This book compares the progress of some of these economies in transition and analyses their growth potential. The focus lies on the special role that foreign trade liberalisation and foreign direct investment plays in economic growth. Since foreign trade and foreign direct investment are important channels of technology transfer they can substantially contribute to a higher level of economic growth. Based on the gravity model this book investigates potential in foreign trade and foreign direct investment for selected CIS and CEECs with developed OECD economies. Policy options for some of these countries are discussed including issues of foreign trade, foreign direct investment, structural adjustment, and economic growth.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Socialist economies in Eastern Europe have collapsed and em- barked upon market-oriented reforms. The causes of the demise of centrally planned economies are analyzed and the basic challenges of systemic tranformation discussed. Negative income and wealth effects as well as distribution issues make adjustment extremely difficult. The fundamental roles of privatization and foreign investment are adressed. Foreign economic liberalization is considered to be of centralimportance for a growth-oriented adjustment path in a stage of conflict-prone policy and options. Politico-economic aspects of the new European developments in addition to North-South issues are analyzed. Difficult choices await decison-makers in economic policy and the business community in Eastern Europe and in leading market economies.

Edward M. Graham, Nina Oding and Paul J. J. Welfens Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have achieved sustained economic growth in first half of the new decade in the 2V^ century. EU ac cession countries which have joined the EU have benefited mainly from high capital inflows, a reduced risk premium - with shadow effects of this already occurring in the years before explicit membership - and growing trade. While system transformation has undermined trade between Eastern Europe and Russia for several years there are medium prospects for grow ing trade in the whole of Europe. Russia's case, however, is different from the EU accession countries as a major driving force of economic dynamics is the oil and gas sector which has considerable backward and forward linkages. At the same time this sector apparently is politically quite sensi tive. The Transatlantic Transformation and Economic Development Re search Group has organized several workshops within a major interna tional research project. The project is devoted to analyzing the internatio nalization of the Russian economy and the associated changes in major policy fields. This book contains the revised analytical papers from the St. Petersburg conference in 2003 when the city celebrated its 300 year anniversary. We are very grateful to the Leontief Center for excellent organization of the conference. The paper by Paul J. J.

The future success of China's rapidly growing economy remains uncertain. This book analyzes official documents, data and current writings of recognized academicians investigating China's experience with systemic restructuring.

After a decade of sharp economic decline, Russia switched to an impressive period of economic growth. Yet the economic record is still mixed, and many key problems remain unresolved, both in the economic sphere and the political system. The focus is on economic dynamics in Russia, reasons for its hesitant opening up process as well as the special role of the natural resources sector which is expected to continue to grow. This analysis highlights the existing deficiencies of the Russian economic system and raises doubts about the sustainability of growth. Twin focus is on required reforms and endogenous forces that impair liberalizing trade and investment in an orderly way. Russian discussions on WTO and other international topics are reflected.

This book deals with the impact that international trade is likely to have on the skilled-unskilled wage gap in a typical developing economy. This is the first theoretical monograph on this particular issue which has already generated substantial debate and voluminous work for the developed countries. A unique feature of this work is that it tries to explain the possibility of rising inequality across trading nations and looks at the segmented labour markets of the poor economies. It makes convincing arguments that the standard general equilibrium models, the main workhorse of trade theory, can be given a creative facelift to address a number of critical and emerging issues in the area of trade and development.