The Caspian

Reflecting the particular concerns of each of the Caspian countries, this book offers a unique perspective on the prospects and priorities for long-term development round the Caspian basin.

Stuck in the middle of different as well as relevant regional complexes, the Caspian Sea basin represents a critical geopolitical hub in the heart of Eurasia landmass. Political, economic as well as strategic considerations contribute to determine the systemic relevance of the Caspian Sea, whose reputation in the West is mainly linked to the vast availability of largely untapped oil and gas resources. However, behind the fierce competition aimed at the exploitation and transportation of the basin’s hydrocarbons lies a much more complex picture, consisting of interlinked legal, military and soft power issues and threats. Aim of the volume – result of a joint research project conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SAM, Baku) and the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI, Milan) – is to address the relevance of the Caspian Sea in the post-bipolar international system, analyzing both soft and had security threats emerging form the basin, as well as the policies of littoral and extra-regional actors.

This volume is based on the presentations and deliberations of an Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) "Caspian Sea: A Quest for Environmental Security" that was held on March 15-19, 1999, in Venice (Italy). The Workshop was sponsored by the NATO's Division for Scientific and Environmental Affairs, with additional support provided by the Trust for Mutual Understanding (USA). It was organized by Duke University's Center for International Development Research with the guidance of the International Committee of scientists from Russia, United States. Georgia and Italy and organizational assistance rendered by Venice International University. The Caspian Sea region is of profound importance from the perspective of global and regional environmental security. New geopolitical and economic circumstances have created a mixture of competition. reluctant collaboration, and legal, political, economic and ideological wrangling. There is an intense debate over how the Caspian and its resources should be divided among littoral states and how these resources are to be developed. While most littoral states and the international companies strive to develop the area's immense hydrocarbon potential, it is clear that the Caspian's unique and fragile ecosystem is at risk.

The Caspian-Caucasus region has received considerable attention over the past eight years. The old potential of this colossal territory is so significant that the analytical centres of the world's largest oil and refining companies consider it to be more long-term than the unstable Persian Gulf. The Politics of Caspian Oil is a collection of essays presenting the results of recent research, which should serve as a reference book for the politics of Caspian oil.

The Caspian Sea has been the focus of states and peoples in and out of the area for the last decade. The surrounding states are interested in getting a decent share of the lake's resources. The industrial states are interested in taking the oil, gas and other natural wealth of the Caspian Sea to world markets as soon as possible. The populations of the littoral states, which are all ruled by undemocratic regimes, are concerned with whether their governments will retain their just rights in the Caspian Sea. They realise that the highest priority for their current rulers is to keep their grip on power, not their nation's present or future interests. How have the respective governments in Azerbaijan, the Federation of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and especially, Iran, thought and acted in regard to the situation of the Caspian Sea and their interests? The issue has a special reference to Iran because it is experiencing a terrible situation in regard to the Caspian Sea due to the poor management of its foreign policy and international relations. Iran will end up with the smallest share of the Caspian Sea, whether it likes it or not. This is a serious setback for a country that once shared the Caspian Sea with the former Soviet Union. Iran's mismanagement of its Caspian Sea rights is a political and diplomatic lesson in what not to do. This book gives everyone, even those without legal or political backgrounds in this issue, an opportunity to survey the facts and history; and to analyse the legal and political realities of the present political situation of the world's largest lake.

Published in association with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, new states - most of them muslim - emerged in central Asia and the Caucasus. These new states proved to be both oil-rich and central in the strip of conflict and instability that stretches from central Europe to the Far East. This volume draws attention to previously neglected issues which could result in conflict: * the water problem and negotiation in central Asia * the issues of 'Southern Azerbaijan', Ajaria and Javakheti * the many problems of multi-ethnic Daghestan * two attempts at unity in the Northern Caucasus. The book also re-examines some of the established truths regarding the states around the Caspian Sea, and re-evaluates: * the validity of the term 'Caspian region' and the question of who should be included in this new region * the general belief that the Caspian region will be a geopolitical centre of the 21st century * the axiom that the dissolution of the USSR has reopened the 'Great Game'. Moreover, The Caspian Region thoughtfully re-examines the questions of democracy; of fundamentalist Islam and of the complex, ambivalent relationship between Islam and nationalism in the region.

The historical record seen through Offensive Realism presents evidence illustrating that the United States' approach toward the Caspian Sea region between 1991 and 2001 was governed by idealistic principles rather than balance of power considerations. That was led by the false notion that democratic Russia would act in accordance with US goals. The United States denied the competitive nature of international politics, refusing to criticise abuses by Moscow in the region, and failing to intervene when US interests were marginalised. The US failed to prevent Russia from refashioning conditions conducive to the re-absorption of the Caucasus and Central Asia as a sphere of influence; nor did it account for China’s expanded role and trajectory as a challenge to US power. This analysis shows, for example, that Russia’s proximity and willingness to use force exceeded the capabilities of the US’ use of its global predominance to shape regional events.