The Caspian Sea Chessboard

Stuck in the middle of different as well as relevant regional complexes, the Caspian Sea basin represents a critical geopolitical hub in the heart of Eurasia landmass. Political, economic as well as strategic considerations contribute to determine the systemic relevance of the Caspian Sea, whose reputation in the West is mainly linked to the vast availability of largely untapped oil and gas resources. However, behind the fierce competition aimed at the exploitation and transportation of the basin’s hydrocarbons lies a much more complex picture, consisting of interlinked legal, military and soft power issues and threats. Aim of the volume – result of a joint research project conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SAM, Baku) and the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI, Milan) – is to address the relevance of the Caspian Sea in the post-bipolar international system, analyzing both soft and had security threats emerging form the basin, as well as the policies of littoral and extra-regional actors.

This book analyzes the legal and economic situation concerning the removal and allocation of natural resources in the Caspian Sea – the largest enclosed body of salt water in the world, which not only constitutes a fragile ecosystem with tremendous fishery resources, but is also rich in oil and gas deposits. After more than 20 years of negotiations, the five littoral states signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea in August 2018. This book investigates whether this long-awaited agreement may pave a way forward for the sustainable and peaceful development of the Caspian region. The newly introduced regulations on the delimitation of the boundaries, on the Caspian Sea’s natural resources (especially its fossil fuels) and on the transport of goods by shipping and submarine pipelines, are of utmost importance for the successful participation of the Caspian states in global markets. In addition to a detailed analysis of the Convention, the book offers an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the historical background and current status of issues that are of critical importance for the region’s development and security.

The analysis of geopolitics and energy security policies in the Caspian region is a challenging research task. This is because of the specific development of international relations in this region and the evolution of its importance in the context of the functioning of the global energy market. Due to its special geopolitical location in central Eurasia and at the junction at the world’s largest trading routes, the region is gaining in importance, both politically and economically in contemporary international relations, and becoming a place where actors involved satisfy the need for energy security.

The Caspian Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean are two regions with abundant energy resources. Their gas routes to Europe intersect and actors, exporters, pipeline owners and operators, transit states and downstream customers are connected to one another in a web of political and economic interdependencies. More significantly, these regions have been plagued by deep-seated ethnic conflicts and disputes: namely, the two oldest registered in the United Nations (the Cyprus and the Arab-Israeli Conflicts), the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the Syria War and numerous tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea and the Balkan regions. This book investigates what impact these energy resources have had on the respective conflicts and disputes, as well as their influence on the power game between the EU and Russia.

Could the Caspian Region replace Russia's or the Persian Gulf's immense energy potential with their energy resources? Yunis Gurbanov explores the strategic importance of the region in post-USSR Eurasian policies of major global actors, namely China, the EU, the USA, and Russia, and examines Azerbaijan's, Kazakhstan's, and Turkmenistan's oil and gas resources as alternatives to conventional suppliers. He shows that the Caspian region's resources could serve as alternative energy sources on a global level, mitigating dependence on traditional suppliers and stabilizing energy prices.

The historical record seen through Offensive Realism presents evidence illustrating that the United States' approach toward the Caspian Sea region between 1991 and 2001 was governed by idealistic principles rather than balance of power considerations. That was led by the false notion that democratic Russia would act in accordance with US goals. The United States denied the competitive nature of international politics, refusing to criticise abuses by Moscow in the region, and failing to intervene when US interests were marginalised. The US failed to prevent Russia from refashioning conditions conducive to the re-absorption of the Caucasus and Central Asia as a sphere of influence; nor did it account for China’s expanded role and trajectory as a challenge to US power. This analysis shows, for example, that Russia’s proximity and willingness to use force exceeded the capabilities of the US’ use of its global predominance to shape regional events.

This book examines why authoritarian governments are willing to address environmental problems that have an international impact, such as CO2 emissions, but are reluctant to address problems that have only a domestic impact. In a case study of Azerbaijani oil politics, it demonstrates how the incumbent Azerbaijani regime has taken important measures trying to address CO2 emissions while ignoring the damage caused by oil pollution on the Caspian coast. The book argues that resource-rich authoritarian governments are eager to join international environmental initiatives to improve their image, but they address domestic environmental issues mainly if they threaten their hold on power. This book is an important contribution to scholarship on environmental governance in the post-Soviet space, an area that is poorly researched. Therefore, it is a must-read for researchers and scholars interested in post-Soviet studies, as well as in the nexus between mineral-rich regions and how social policy is created, e.g., environment, education, and healthcare. In addition, this book will be of tremendous importance for policymakers and international organizations as it looks into the motivation of authoritarian states in the post-Soviet space for environmental measures.