The Divergent Dynamics Of Economic Growth

This book explains how changing technology and economizing behaviour induce vast changes in productivity, resource allocation, labour utilization, and patterns of living. Economic growth is seen as a process by which businesses, regimes, countries, and the whole world pass through distinct epochs, each one emerging from its predecessor, each one creating the conditions for its successor. Viewed from a long-run perspective, growth must be characterized as an explosive process, marked by turbulent transitions in social and political life as societies adapt to new opportunities, the demise of old ways of living, and to the vast increase and redistribution of human populations. The book is based on a synthesis of classical economics and contemporary concepts of adaptation and economic evolution. Although it is based on analytical methods, the text has been stripped of all equations and with few exceptions is devoid of technical jargon.

Unlike the 1950s and 1960s, when the rising tide of economic growth lifted most economies, the last three decades have been characterized by a paradox of greater international economic integration as well as divergent economic growth performances. The growing North-South gap of the last two centuries has been moderated recently by the better economic performance of China, India and others in East Asia, implying the expansion of the 'middle income' category. This volume of analytical studies seeks to explain these major differences in economic performance in recent decades by considering the dynamics of international economic growth, diverging growth rates, economic structures, and sources of demand, successes and collapses in the developing world, and recent episodes of real income stagnation of countries. Several chapters critically review recent misleading claims and the conventional wisdom regarding the relationship of trade liberalization, financial development, development, aid, infrastructure spending, violent conflict, good governance, and industrial policy to economic growth.

This paper examines the dynamics of economic growth. First, it demonstrates that the standard neoclassical growth model with constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution is not consistent with the patterns of development we observe in the real world, once we consider the initial conditions. Second, it examines an alternative growth model, which is consistent with endogenously determined initial conditions and also generates dynamics that are in accord with the historical patterns of growth rates, capital flows, savings rates and labor supply. The alternative model is a generalized version of the neoclassical growth model, with increasing rates of intertemporal substitution due to a Stone-Geary type of utility.

Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find absolute convergence in expansions. The output costs of political and financial crises are permanent on average and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply that panel data studies can help identify the sources of growth and that economic models should be capable of explaining growth and fluctuations within the same framework.

Mathematical Models is a component of Encyclopedia of Mathematical Sciences in the global Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), which is an integrated compendium of twenty one Encyclopedias. The Theme on Mathematical Models discusses matters of great relevance to our world such as: Basic Principles of Mathematical Modeling; Mathematical Models in Water Sciences; Mathematical Models in Energy Sciences; Mathematical Models of Climate and Global Change; Infiltration and Ponding; Mathematical Models of Biology; Mathematical Models in Medicine and Public Health; Mathematical Models of Society and Development. These three volumes are aimed at the following five major target audiences: University and College students Educators, Professional practitioners, Research personnel and Policy analysts, managers, and decision makers and NGOs.

Since the very beginnings of economics as a science, which might be dated from Ibn Khaldun's "Introduction to History" (1377), the challenge of making societies escape from poverty and attain some degree of prosperity has always been, and can remain, a fundamental issue. This book presents research on each of these issues.

Together these countries pioneered new technologies that have made them ever richer.