The Future Of China S Bond Market

China’s bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country’s bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China’s bond market structure, its unique characteristics, and areas where reforms are needed. This volume comprehensively analyzes the different segments of China’s bond market, from sovereign, policy bank, and credit bonds, to the rapidly growing local government bond market. It also covers bond futures, green bonds, and asset-backed securities, as well as China’s offshore market, which has played a major role in onshore market development.

China's bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country's bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China's bond market structure, its unique characteristics, and areas where reforms are needed. This volume comprehensively analyzes the different segments of China's bond market, from sovereign, policy bank, and credit bonds, to the rapidly growing local government bond market. It also covers bond futures, green bonds, and asset-backed securities, as well as China's offshore market, which has played a major role in onshore market development.

A cross-country comparative analysis shows that there is substantial room for further integration of China into global financial markets, especially in the case of the international bond market. A further successful liberalization of the Chinese bond market would encompass not only loosening bond market regulations, but also further developing of other markets, notably the foreign exchange market. Even though the increased integration of China into international capital markets would increase its exposure to the global financial cycle, the costs in terms of monetary autonomy would not be large given China’s size and especially under a well-articulated macroeconomic framework.

An in-depth look at China’s burgeoning capital markets Author Jian Gao is the number one authority on fixed income markets in China, and with this book, he brings his considerable experience and knowledge about these markets to investors worldwide. For those interested in becoming active in China’s growing fixed income markets, Debt Capital Markets in China is the book you need to get started. It includes coverage of the primary and secondary markets, government debt instruments, corporate bonds, the collateralized bond market, and asset-backed securitizations. Debt Capital Markets in China also examines the developing market trends, which affect investors and institutions looking to make the most of this incredible financial opportunity. Dr. Jian Gao, PhD (Beijing, China) is the Vice Governor of China Development Bank (CDB).

With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, and the sustained development of the Chinese economy, the Chinese bond market has become an important player in the global bond market. As at the end of 2022, the custodial balance of the Chinese bond market reached RMB14.48 trillion, ranking second in the world and the largest bond market in Asia. As a maturing emerging market in the world, the Chinese bond market not only follows the general rules of global bond markets, but also has some of its own characteristics. To make effective investments and financing in this market, a comprehensive and profound understanding of the market is required.This book is the result of a joint research project 'Function, Structure, and Development of China's Debt Capital Market,' supported by the China National Natural Science Foundation and the Economic and Social Research Council of the United Kingdom. It includes contributions by professors, associate professors, and postgraduates from Fudan University and the London School of Economics. From the perspectives of institutional framework, market functions, market structure, and market development, the book provides a systematic and in-depth analysis and exploration of the macro-effects, microstructure, local government bond market, corporate bond market, debt derivatives market, and market supervision and regulation of the Chinese credit bond market. It is an important reference for international investors and researchers to gain a deep understanding of the evolution of the fundamental institutional framework, structure, and functions of the Chinese credit bond market.

China's financial prices are informative enough for the PBC to introduce a monetary policy framework centered around interest rates. While bond yields are not fully efficient?reflecting regulation, liquidity, and segmentation?we find they contain considerable information about the state of the economy as well as evidence of an emerging transmission channel: changes in PBC rates influence the structure of Treasury, financial, and corporate bond yield curves, which are then associated with changes in growth and inflation. Coporate spreads are also a leading indicator of growth and inflation. While further liberalization will strengthen both efficiency and transmission, several necessary elements to move towards indirect monetary policy are already in place.

Over the past twenty years, especially the past decade, China has taken enormous strides to develop its bond market as an integral step of financial reform. This paper aims to provide the most up-to-date overview of Chinese bond markets, by highlighting two distinct and largely segmented markets: Over-the-Counter based interbank market, and centralized exchange market. We explain various bond instruments traded in these two markets, highlighting their inherent connection with the banking system, and many multi-layer regulatory bodies who are interacting with each other in an intricate way. We also covers the credit ratings and rating agencies in Chinese market, and offer an account of ever-rising default incidents in China starting 2014. Finally, we discuss the recent regulatory tightening of shadow banking since late 2017 and its impact on bond investors, and the forces behind the internalization of Chinese bond markets in the near future.

Local governments play a significant role in China’s public finance and fiscal operations. The size of local government debt has grown rapidly over the past years, exceeding the stock of sovereign debt in China. How does this development compare to other countries and what policies can foster the sound development of the bond markets? This paper finds that despite its rapid growth, the local government bond market is still underdeveloped. Severe impediments—low liquidity, weak credit discipline, structural fiscal deficit in local governments—have become more visible. Reforms to develop a sound local government bond market should harmonize tax and regulations, build liquidity, and advance fiscal reforms to tighten off-budget borrowing and address intergovernmental imbalances.