The Future Of Intelligence

Intelligence is, by definition, a shadowy business. Yet many aspects of this secret world are now more openly analyzed and discussed, a trend which has inevitably prompted lively debate about intelligence gathering and analysis: what should be allowed? What boundaries, if any, should be drawn? And what changes and challenges lie ahead for intelligence activities and agencies? In this compelling book, leading intelligence scholar Mark Lowenthal explores the future of intelligence. There are, he argues, three broad areas – information technology and intelligence collection; analysis; and governance – that indicate the potential for rather dramatic change in the world of intelligence. But whether these important vectors for change will improve how intelligence works or make it more difficult remains to be seen. The only certainty is that intelligence will remain an essential feature of statecraft in our increasingly dangerous world. Drawing on the author's forty years' experience in U.S. intelligence, The Future of Intelligence offers a broad and authoritative starting point for the ongoing debate about what intelligence could be and how it may function in the years ahead.

A Sunday Times Business Book of the Year. Scary Smart will teach you how to navigate the scary and inevitable intrusion of Artificial Intelligence, with an accessible blueprint for creating a harmonious future alongside AI. From Mo Gawdat, the former Chief Business Officer at Google [X] and bestselling author of Solve for Happy. Technology is putting our humanity at risk to an unprecedented degree. This book is not for engineers who write the code or the policy makers who claim they can regulate it. This is a book for you. Because, believe it or not, you are the only one that can fix it. - Mo Gawdat Artificial intelligence is smarter than humans. It can process information at lightning speed and remain focused on specific tasks without distraction. AI can see into the future, predict outcomes and even use sensors to see around physical and virtual corners. So why does AI frequently get it so wrong and cause harm? The answer is us: the human beings who write the code and teach AI to mimic our behaviour. Scary Smart explains how to fix the current trajectory now, to make sure that the AI of the future can preserve our species. This book offers a blueprint, pointing the way to what we can do to safeguard ourselves, those we love, and the planet itself. 'No one ever regrets reading anything Mo Gawdat has written.' - Emma Gannon, author of The Multi-Hyphen Method and host of the podcast Ctrl Alt Delete

This volume discusses the challenges the future holds for different aspects of the intelligence process and for organisations working in the field. The main focus of Western intelligence services is no longer on the intentions and capabilities of the Soviet Union and its allies. Instead, at present, there is a plethora of threats and problems that deserve attention. Some of these problems are short-term and potentially acute, such as terrorism. Others, such as the exhaustion of natural resources, are longer-term and by nature often more difficult to foresee in their implications. This book analyses the different activities that make up the intelligence process, or the ‘intelligence cycle’, with a focus on changes brought about by external developments in the international arena, such as technology and security threats. Drawing together a range of key thinkers in the field, The Future of Intelligence examines possible scenarios for future developments, including estimations about their plausibility, and the possible consequences for the functioning of intelligence and security services. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, foreign policy, security studies and IR in general.

A recurrent debate surrounding AI concerns the extent of human work that could be replaced by machines over the next twenty years when compared to new jobs created by AI. Numerous reports have addressed this issue, reaching a wide range of conclusions. Experts consider it a reasonable consensus that eventually a significant portion of blue- and white-collar jobs in most industries will become obsolete, or at least transformed, to such an extent that workers will need re-education to remain viable. This percentage of vulnerable jobs will continue to increase over time. The obsolescence will be far worse in developing countries where the standard of education is lower.

First Published in 1990. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

As the pace of change has grown more rapid, an emphasis on survival and short-term thinking has increasingly pervaded the realm of leadership and political decision-making. In a bold response to this problem, the Israeli Knesset established the Commission for Future Generations and appointed the former judge, Shlomo Shoham, as head of the Commission in 2001. Shoham was tasked with the difficult work of representing the needs, interests and rights of those not yet born. Drawing upon his legal and political experience, Shoham today demonstrates how we can overcome the pitfalls of short-term thinking by developing our "future intelligence." This kind of intelligence, he argues, is the key to infusing public administration with visionary thinking and creative foresight. Endorsements: From Shimon Peres, President of the State of Israel In his book Future Intelligence, Judge (ret.) Shlomo Shoham provides a practical model on how to enhance sustainability in government and policy-defining bodies to serve the future of mankind and nature in a changing planet. Future Intelligence turns to the decision-makers of today to break away from the conservative outlook and adopt a long-term vision for posterity. From Horst Köhler, former President of the Federal Republic of Germany Shlomo Shoham presented the work of the Commission for Future Generations at the First Forum on Demographic Change of the former German President in 2005. For President Horst Köhler and other participants, Shoham's conceptual contributions proved immensely valuable in helping lay out new means of dealing with the fundamental challenges facing all countries, including Germany.

This open access book proposes a novel approach to Artificial Intelligence (AI) ethics. AI offers many advantages: better and faster medical diagnoses, improved business processes and efficiency, and the automation of boring work. But undesirable and ethically problematic consequences are possible too: biases and discrimination, breaches of privacy and security, and societal distortions such as unemployment, economic exploitation and weakened democratic processes. There is even a prospect, ultimately, of super-intelligent machines replacing humans. The key question, then, is: how can we benefit from AI while addressing its ethical problems? This book presents an innovative answer to the question by presenting a different perspective on AI and its ethical consequences. Instead of looking at individual AI techniques, applications or ethical issues, we can understand AI as a system of ecosystems, consisting of numerous interdependent technologies, applications and stakeholders. Developing this idea, the book explores how AI ecosystems can be shaped to foster human flourishing. Drawing on rich empirical insights and detailed conceptual analysis, it suggests practical measures to ensure that AI is used to make the world a better place.