The Geopolitics Of Regional Power

In the last two decades, various states from the Global South have emerged as important players in international relations. Most popular among them is China. Brazil, India and South Africa have also taken essential roles in global and regional politics. Compared to traditional great powers, they can be labelled ’regional great powers’ or ’regional powers’ because their influence is - with the exception of China - concentrated on their neighbourhood. The impact of regions, meaning the impact of geography, on the economics and politics of regional powers is surprisingly understudied. This book analyses how geographical conditions influence the regional economics and politics of South Africa, allowing the author to delineate its region of influence.

This book presents the theoretical-historical-comparative political framework needed to fully grasp the truly dynamic nature of 21st century global affairs. The author provides a realistic assessment of the shift from U.S predominance to a new mix of counterbalancing rival middle-tier and assertive regional powers, while highlighting those geopolitical zones of contention most critical for future international stability. The book will appeal to scholars and policy makers interested in understanding the contours of the emerging world order, and in identifying its principal shapers and leading political actors.

Intensifying geopolitical rivalries, rising defence spending and the proliferation of the latest military technology across Asia suggest that the region is set for a prolonged period of strategic contestation. None of the three competing visions for the future of Asian order – a US-led ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, a Chinese-centred order, or the ASEAN-inspired ‘Indo-Pacific Outlook’ – is likely to prevail in the short to medium term. In the absence of a new framework, the risk of open conflict is heightened, and along with it the need for effective mechanisms to maintain peace and stability. As Asia’s leaders seek to rebuild their economies and societies in the wake of COVID-19, they would do well to reflect upon the lessons offered by the pandemic and their applicability in the strategic realm. The societies that have navigated the crisis most effectively have been able to do so by putting in place stringent protective measures. Crisis-management and -avoidance mechanisms – and even, in the longer term, wider arms control – can be seen as the strategic equivalent of such measures, and as such they should be pursued with urgency in Asia to reduce the risks of an even greater calamity.

South Africa is the dominant force in an area that is of increasing strategic importance to the West, yet few studies address the geopolitical pressures that dictate the course of events there. Analyzing South Africa’s base of power, the authors argue that because South Africa’s relationships with other states in Southern Africa are asymmetrical in nature, the country has substantial economic and political leverage in the region. Control of Southern Africa’s transport infrastructure and the ability to project a conventional or surrogate military presence throughout the region, for example, gives South Africa the power to affect the economic and political stability of virtually all regional states. Asymmetry also characterizes relationships at the global level. Because the West depends upon South Africa for access to the region’s strategic minerals, for the security of the Cape oil route, and for the country’s ability to counterbalance the Soviet presence in Southern Africa, South Africa exercises considerable influence over the African foreign policies of the superpowers. Focusing on the major geopolitical variables affecting South Africa’s ability to sustain power, the authors analyze the economic and geographic factors that contribute to asymmetrical relationships and examine the pluralism that divides South African society. Pretoria’s successful foreign policy, which has created a security corridor of new buffer states, is given particular emphasis. In addition, the authors provide a detailed analysis of South Africa’s minerals-based economy and discuss the implications for regional stability of economic sanctions against South Africa. Finally, they outline a policy framework that takes regional economic, political, and geographic realities into account.

Resource wars, identity conflicts, disinformation, geostrategic rivalries, global power shifts, and an increasing number of non-state actors, make it difficult to analyse contemporary international relations. At the same time, contemporary power rivalries are increasingly affected by currency wars, economic diplomacy, competitive intelligence, economic warfare, indirect strategies, and state capitalism. The events in Ukraine in Spring 2014 reconfirm that Thomas Friedman’s flattening of the world (based on the coincidence of the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the emergence of Netscape and the Web; workflow software; uploading; outsourcing; offshoring; supply-chaining; insourcing; in-forming; and “steroids” like Facebook and Instagram) goes hand in hand with the fact that, as postulated by Robert Kaplan, geography still matters in a global world. Globalization exists because of local processes, and local processes are ultimately shaped by globalization. Geography remains among the primary factors shaping a country’s foreign policy. This book addresses the most fundamental geopolitical issues observable in a region where the “great game” of geopolitics is particularly still alive – in East- and South-East Asia. The contemporary geopolitical situation in this part of the world is far from stable: the width and depth of economic integration in the region resonates with the nature of political relations, crises in the global financial system, climate change, and the regional security architecture inherited from the Cold-War era. In terms of power relations, the particular changes in the region’s status quo imply an immediate intensification of the PRC’s activities within the framework of political and security dialogue with its direct neighbors, ultimately leading to a rivalry between China and the United States. The studies presented in this book largely focus on East- and South-East Asian actors and problems, while studies of the situation in other global regions enrich the research by adding a global dimension to the study of regional geopolitical affairs.

Illuminates the interplay between regional concerns and the international context, which together define the hierarchy of states. Building on case studies, this book demonstrates that this status cannot be attained solely by building a military or economic power base.

South Africa is the dominant force in an area that is of increasing strategic importance to the West, yet few studies address the geopolitical pressures that dictate the course of events there. Analyzing South Africa's base of power, the authors argue that because South Africa's relationships with other states in Southern Africa are asymmetrical in nature, the country has substantial economic and political leverage in the region. Control of Southern Africa's transport infrastructure and the ability to project a conventional or surrogate military presence throughout the region, for example, gives South Africa the power to affect the economic and political stability of virtually all regional states. Asymmetry also characterizes relationships at the global level. Because the West depends upon South Africa for access to the region's strategic minerals, for the security of the Cape oil route, and for the country's ability to counterbalance the Soviet presence in Southern Africa, South Africa exercises considerable influence over the African foreign policies of the superpowers. Focusing on the major geopolitical variables affecting South Africa's ability to sustain power, the authors analyze the economic and geographic factors that contribute to asymmetrical relationships and examine the pluralism that divides South African society. Pretoria's successful foreign policy, which has created a security corridor of new buffer states, is given particular emphasis. In addition, the authors provide a detailed analysis of South Africa's minerals-based economy and discuss the implications for regional stability of economic sanctions against South Africa. Finally, they outline a policy framework that takes regional economic, political, and geographic realities into account.

After fifteen years of reconstruction in a relatively peaceful environment spanning the years 1990 to 2004, Lebanon has experienced successive violent political events resulting from complex entangled internal and external struggles. The Syrian crisis and its political, economic and demographic consequences on Lebanon have increased these tensions. This atlas sheds light on these new challenges and adds new data that complete the analyses already published in the Atlas du Liban. Territoires et société (Atlas of Lebanon. Territories and Society) released in 2007 by the same research team. Some of its components are included in this edition. Beyond the international regional crisis and the population movements, it takes into account Lebanon’s socio-economic dimensions, the environmental issues linked to uncontrolled urbanization and to natural risks, as well as conflicts due to local territorial management. This atlas is the result of a collaborative endeavor between French and Lebanese researchers. It uses a geographical approach that puts in the foreground a spatial analysis of social and natural phenomena. Public sources are scarce in Lebanon, especially at the local scale. They are sometimes less reliable and difficult to access. It is particularly the case for the Lebanese census data, conversely data are abundantly available on the refugees population, which is less known than the population of refugees. International data help compare Lebanon to its neighbors. Thematic data produced by some ministries are helpful to provide a detailed view regarding specific domains. Analyses processed on aerial and satellite images have produced essential data on urbanization and environment. Local thematic fieldwork surveys have provided additional data. The book consists of seven chapters. The first one deals with the territorial state-building seen in the light of regional geopolitics, and emphasizes internal violence and the reemergence of militias and armed groups that fight each other and the state army. Lebanon is once again perceived as a territory divided between multiple allegiances. The second chapter is devoted to the analysis of population dynamics, despite the lack of reliable data whose sources are subject to discussion. It includes analyses of internal population flows, the Lebanese diaspora, and the assessment of Syrian refugees’ influx. The third chapter shows the fragility of the Lebanese economic model. Its dependency on foreign investments and on...