The Iraq Effect

Regardless of its outcome, the Iraq War has had a transformative effect on the Middle East. To equip U.S. policymakers to better manage the war's long-term consequences, the authors analyzed its effects on the regional balance of power, local perceptions of U.S. credibility, the domestic stability of neighboring states, and trends in terrorism after conducting extensive interviews in the region and drawing from an array of local media sources.

The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic thought. Such a technique, while understandable, cannot continue indefinitely as an approach to policy. Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential "spillover" from the Iraq war. Regional spillover problems associated with the Iraq war need to be considered and addressed even in the event of strong future success in building the new Iraq. In less optimistic scenarios, these issues will become even more important. Spillover issues addressed herein include: (1) the flow of refugees and displaced persons from Iraq, (2) cross-border terrorism, (3) the...

"Freedman has collected an array of first-rate political analysts with differing perspectives and areas of expertise. . . . The result is a work of uniformly high quality . . . readable and up to date."--Jerrold D. Green, University of Arizona Center for Middle East Studies We may not live to see the end of the ripple effect of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 and the ensuing Gulf War. Meanwhile, this collection is one of the first systematic attempts to investigate the implications of that invasion for the significant political actors, in the Middle East and beyond. From varied perspectives and fields of interest, well-respected political scientists focus on the military dynamics of the war and its political effects on the Persian Gulf, on the Arab-Israeli zone of conflict, and on the superpowers. Of particular interest to many readers will be the analysis of both U.S. military and diplomatic strategy during the war and U.S. efforts to convene the Arab-Israeli peace talks after the war; Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's attempts to follow a "minimax" strategy under which he sought a minimum level of cooperation with the United States while retaining maximum influence in Iraq; the debate in Japan about whether to get involved in the Allied war effort; and the reasons for Palestinian support of Iraq during the war. Other subjects analyzed in the book include Saddam Hussein's postwar strategy for staying in power; Jordan's effort to walk a narrow tightrope between the Allies and Iraq; Syrian, Iranian, and Egyptian exploitation of the war to improve their regional positions; and the changes in Israel and Saudi Arabia precipitated by the war. Robert O. Freedman is Peggy Meyerhoff Pearlstone Professor of Political Science and dean of the School of Graduate Studies at Baltimore Hebrew University. He is the editor of Intifada: Its Impact on Israel, the Arab World, and the Superpowers (UPF, 1991) and a prolific author and frequent lecturer on the Middle East. Contents Preface Introduction Part I: The Military and Political Dynamics of the Gulf War The Persian Gulf War: A Political-Military Assessment, by Bard E. O'Neill and Ilana Kass Part II: The Policy of External Powers U.S. Policy toward the Middle East after Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait, by Robert E. Hunter Moscow and the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait, by Robert O. Freedman Fire on the Other Side of the River: Japan and the Persian Gulf War, by Eugene Brown Part III: The Gulf Region Iraq after the Invasion of Kuwait, by Laurie Mylroie Iran from the August 1988 Cease-fire to the April 1992 Majlis Elections, by Shireen T. Hunter Saudi Arabia: Desert Storm and After, by F. Gregory Gause, III Part IV: The Eastern Mediterranean Israel, the Gulf War, and Its Aftermath, by Marvin Feuerwerger The Palestinians and the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait, by Helena Cobban Syria since 1988: From Crisis to Opportunity, by Alasdair Drysdale Jordanian Policy from the Intifada to the Madrid Peace Conference, by Adam Garfinkle Unipolarity and Egyptian Hegemony in the Middle East, by Louis Cantori

The author has been asked to analyze four issues: the position that key states in their region are taking on U.S. military action against Iraq; the role of America in the region after the war with Iraq; the nature of security partnerships in the region after the war with Iraq; and the effect that war with Iraq will have on the war on terrorism in the region.

The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic thought. Such a technique, while understandable, cannot continue indefinitely as an approach to policy. Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential "spillover" from the Iraq war. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill presents ideas, concerns, and strategies that can help to fill this gap in the literature and enrich the debate on the actual and potential spillover effects of the Iraq war that will face U.S. policymakers, possibly for decades. Regional spillover problems associated with the Iraq war need to be considered and addressed even in the event of strong future success in building the new Iraq. In less optimistic scenarios, these issues will become even more important. Spillover issues addressed herein include: (1) the flow of refugees and displaced persons from Iraq, (2) cross-border terrorism, (3) the potential intensification of separatism and sectarian discord among Iraq's neighbors, and (4) transnational crime. All of these problems will be exceptionally important in the Middle East in the coming years and perhaps decades, and trends involving these issues will need to be closely monitored. Of these problems, Dr. Terrill clearly is especially concerned with the spread of sectarian divisions which, if not properly managed, can have devastating regional consequences. This monograph, however, forms an important baseline useful for considering future trends in each of the areas that he has identified. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this important subject as our nation continues to grapple with a variety of problems associated with the U.S. presence in Iraq and the larger Middle East. This analysis should be especially useful to U.S. strategic leaders as they seek to address the complicated interplay of factors related to Middle Eastern security issues and the support of local allies. It may also be useful to those considering how to optimize the U.S. national interest in dealing with nonallied states within the region. This work may also benefit those seeking a greater understanding of long-range issues of Middle Eastern security. We hope this monograph will benefit officers of all services as well as other U.S. Government officials visiting Iraq and its neighbors.

"Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential spillover from the Iraq war." ... " Regional spillover problems associated with the Iraq war need to be considered and addressed even in the event of strong future success in building the new Iraq. In less optimistic scenarios, these issues will become even more important. Spillover issues addressed herein include: (1) the flow of refugees and displaced persons from Iraq, (2) cross-border terrorism, (3) the potential intensification of separatism and sectarian discord among Iraq's neighbors, and (4) transnational crime. All of these problems will be exceptionally important in the Middle East in the coming years and perhaps decades, and trends involving these issues will need to be closely monitored."--Foreword.

Regardless of its outcome, the Iraq War has had a transformative effect on the Middle East. To equip U.S. policymakers to better manage the war's long-term consequences, the authors analyzed its effects on the regional balance of power, local perceptions of U.S. credibility, the domestic stability of neighboring states, and trends in terrorism after conducting extensive interviews in the region and drawing from an array of local media sources.

The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic thought. Such a technique, while understandable, cannot continue indefinitely as an approach to policy. Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential "spillover" from the Iraq war. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill presents ideas, concerns, and strategies that can help to fill this gap in the literature and enrich the debate on the actual and potential spillover effects of the Iraq war that will face U.S. policymakers, possibly for decades.