The October Scenario

Discusses a series of UFO sightings that took place in October of 1973, describes abductions by UFOs, and suggests a theory behind the sightings

Written by a field investigator for the Aerial Phenomena Research Organization, this classic is an astonishing account of the many UFO encounters experienced by hundreds of individuals in October of 1973. This comprehensive work describes abductions by UFOs, and suggests a theory behind the sightings. Pat Roach was asleep with her children in their house in Utah when she met them. Susan Ramstead was on her way to a business meeting in a Midwestern city. Dionisio LLanca was on an overnight trip in Argentina. Charles Hickson and Calvin Parker were fishing in Mississippi. Leigh Proctor was on her way home from vacation when it happened. It was during October of 1973 that all of these people shared an experience. And it was during October of 1973 that hundreds of others had the experience of a lifetime. It is unfortunate that no one realized what was happening. We can only hope that next time we'll be ready. "Tremendous research...New insights into UFO abductions." Warren Smith - UFO Mysteries "This is a theory that certainly deserves consideration. UFO flaps occur with cyclical consistency." Ralph Blum - Beyond Earth: Man's contact with UFOs "Randle presents his controversial theory with conviction and supplements it with well documented cases." Brad Steiger - The Fellowship

Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently.

The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa has been severe; however, countries are weathering the storm so far. Real GDP is estimated to contract by 2.0 percent in 2020—close to the lower bound of the forecast range in April 2020, and less than the contraction in advanced economies and other emerging markets and developing economies, excluding China. Available data from the second half of 2020 point to rebound in economic activity that explain why the contraction in the region was in the lower bound of the forecasts. It reflected a slower spread of the virus and lower COVID-19-related mortality in the region, strong agricultural growth, and a faster-than-expected recovery in commodity prices. Economic activity in the region is expected to rise to a range between2.3 and 3.4 percent in 2021, depending on the policy measures adopted by countries and the international community. However, prospects for a slow vaccine rollout, the resurgence of pandemic, and limited scope for additional fiscal support, could hold back the recovery in the region. Policies to support the economy in the near term should be complemented by structural reforms that encourage sustained investment, create jobs and enhance competitiveness. Reducing the countries’ debt burden will release resources for public investment, in areas such as education, health, and infrastructure. Investments in human capital will help lower the risk of long-lasting damage from the pandemic which may become apparent over the longer term, and can enhance competitiveness and productivity. The next twelve months will be a critical period for leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area in order to deepen African countries’ integration into regional and global value chains. Finally, reforms that address digital infrastructure gaps and make the digital economy more inclusive †“ensuring affordability but also building skills for all segments of society, are critical to improve connectivity, boost digital technology adoption, and generate more and better jobs for men and women.

This first volume of the Handbook of Asset and Liability Management presents the theories and methods supporting models that align a firm's operations and tactics with its uncertain environment. Detailing the symbiosis between optimization tools and financial decision-making, its original articles cover term and volatility structures, interest rates, risk-return analysis, dynamic asset allocation strategies in discrete and continuous time, the use of stochastic programming models, bond portfolio management, and the Kelly capital growth theory and practice. They effectively set the scene for Volume Two by showing how the management of risky assets and uncertain liabilities within an integrated, coherent framework remains the core problem for both financial institutions and other business enterprises as well. *Each volume presents an accurate survey of a sub-field of finance *Fills a substantial gap in this field *Broad in scope

Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning.