The Russia Sanctions

The first in-depth scholarly analysis of the effects of Western sanctions, and Russia's response on the Russian economy.

In The Russia Sanctions, Christine Abely examines the international trade measures and sanctions deployed against Russia in response to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Abely situates contemporary sanctions within their larger historical and economic backgrounds and provides a uniquely accessible analysis of the historic export controls and import restrictions enacted since 2022. She argues that these sanctions have affected, and will continue to affect, global trading patterns, financial integration, and foreign policy in novel ways. In particular, she examines the effects of sanctions on energy, food, fertilizer, the financial system, and the global use of the US dollar, including trends of de-dollarization. Coverage includes sanctions against oligarchs, the freezing and seizure of assets, and steps taken to make sanctions more effective by promoting financial transparency worldwide.

Nations and international organizations are increasingly using sanctions as a means to achieve their foreign policy aims. However, sanctions are ineffective if they are executed without a clear strategy responsive to the nature and changing behavior of the target. In The Art of Sanctions, Richard Nephew offers a much-needed practical framework for planning and applying sanctions that focuses not just on the initial sanctions strategy but also, crucially, on how to calibrate along the way and how to decide when sanctions have achieved maximum effectiveness. Nephew—a leader in the design and implementation of sanctions on Iran—develops guidelines for interpreting targets’ responses to sanctions based on two critical factors: pain and resolve. The efficacy of sanctions lies in the application of pain against a target, but targets may have significant resolve to resist, tolerate, or overcome this pain. Understanding the interplay of pain and resolve is central to using sanctions both successfully and humanely. With attention to these two key variables, and to how they change over the course of a sanctions regime, policy makers can pinpoint when diplomatic intervention is likely to succeed or when escalation is necessary. Focusing on lessons learned from sanctions on both Iran and Iraq, Nephew provides policymakers with practical guidance on how to measure and respond to pain and resolve in the service of strong and successful sanctions regimes.

Tracing the history of economic sanctions from the blockades of World War I to the policing of colonial empires and the interwar confrontation with fascism, Nicholas Mulder combines political, economic, legal, and military history to reveal how a coercive wartime tool was adopted as an instrument of peacekeeping by the League of Nations.This timely study casts an overdue light on why sanctions are widely considered a form of war, and why their unintended consequences are so tremendous.

This report studies the impact of Western sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 over the crisis in Ukraine. Providing a European point of view, the report also makes recommendations as to how sanctions could be used effectively and efficiently to produce a diplomatic settlement of the crisis.

For a year and a half, Russia has been living under sanctions. The restrictive measures were imposed as a response to its continued violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. The sanctions were crafted by an informal coalition of states politically and economically representing the West. Despite the Western nature of the sanctions, Russian and non-Russian companies (including Chinese) involved in Western markets tacitly respected the sanctions as well. Although the sanctions were designed to have a cumulative effect in the mid to long term, they still have taken a heavy toll on Russia in the short term. As part of Russia's adaptation to the sanctions regime, the country's governing elites embarked on both an open and covert campaign to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions, prevent new restrictions by the West, and remove ones already in place. To support the economy and its defence projects, Russia pushed for import substitution programmes, which face an uncertain investment climate, a shortage of qualified workforce, a lack of private investment capital and knowhow. As the West ruled out "lethal protection" of Ukraine, the sanctions came to represent an efficient, low-cost tool to shelter Ukraine and constrain Russia's power. The sanctions will remain an important element of Western strategy towards Russia. However, sanctions are not a universal answer and should be supported by other tools. As this report suggests, a creative approach to reach out to the Russian population, which is misinformed about the West and kept in the dark about the country's domestic problems, should be part of Western strategy on Russia. Certainly, the door for engagement with Russia should remain open, too. But, this engagement should be a principled one so that the threshold for spheres-of-influence deals is hermetically closed.