The South African Financial System

This paper discusses findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment for South Africa. South Africa’s financial sector operates in a challenging economic environment. Despite remarkable progress since the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa still has one of the world’s highest unemployment and income inequality rates. Slow economic growth since 2008 has further aggravated unemployment, real disposable income is stagnant, and households are heavily indebted. Relatively high capital buffers as well as sound regulation and supervision have helped mitigate the risks. Stress tests confirm the capital resiliency of banks and insurance companies to severe shocks but illustrate a vulnerability to liquidity shortfalls.

This Technical Note discusses stress testing (ST) results for the financial system of South Africa. The bank STs suggest that banks have adequate capital to withstand severe shocks, but need larger liquidity capacity to meet regulatory requirements. Even in the severe scenario in which GDP falls for three consecutive years, banks’ capital buffers seem sufficient, although the impact of a large default could be significant. Banks also appear resilient to market risks in both the trading and banking books. Some banks, however, would have difficulty meeting the Liquidity Coverage Ratio without the Committed Liquidity Facility of the South African Reserve Bank.

This Technical Note discusses recommendations made during the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for South Africa in the areas of contingency planning, crisis management, and bank resolution. The proposed scope of the new resolution regime and of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) jurisdiction as the resolution authority remains unclear. It is suggested that authorities should consider focusing on all deposit-taking institutions and only those other financial institutions that are currently deemed systemic. Non-deposit-taking financial institutions that are not found to be systemic should be resolved by the Prudential Authority or the Market Conduct Authority, whichever is the lead regulator.

Globally, financial institutions have increased their holdings of domestic sovereign debt, tightening the linkage between the health of the financial system and the level of sovereign debt, or the “financial sector-sovereign nexus,” during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, the nexus is still relatively moderate, albeit rising, and the increased focus of the Prudential Authority on the associated risks provide reassurance. Options to mitigate such risks through the use of regulatory measures can be explored. However, absent the necessary fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, risks from the nexus to both the financial system and the sovereign will increase.