South Africa Financial Sector Assessment Program Stress Testing The Financial System Technical Note

This Technical Note discusses stress testing (ST) results for the financial system of South Africa. The bank STs suggest that banks have adequate capital to withstand severe shocks, but need larger liquidity capacity to meet regulatory requirements. Even in the severe scenario in which GDP falls for three consecutive years, banks’ capital buffers seem sufficient, although the impact of a large default could be significant. Banks also appear resilient to market risks in both the trading and banking books. Some banks, however, would have difficulty meeting the Liquidity Coverage Ratio without the Committed Liquidity Facility of the South African Reserve Bank.

This paper examines the stress testing module of the 2013 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update for Canada. The IMF report highlights the three major segments of the domestic financial covered during the stress tests. The bank solvency stress tests suggest that while all banks would fall below the Canadian “all-in” Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) supervisory threshold during severe economic distress, the resulting recapitalization needs are manageable. This IMF report provides recommendations for the Canadian authorities, derived from this joint exercise, to enhance the individual components of their stress testing framework.

This paper discusses how Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) stress test assesses the resilience of the banking sector as a whole rather than the capital adequacy of individual institutions. The FSAP approach to stress testing is essentially macroprudential: it focuses on resilience of the broader financial system to adverse macro-financial conditions rather than on resilience of individual banks to specific shocks. This test ensures consistency in macroeconomic scenarios and metrics across firms to facilitate the assessment of the banking system as a whole. The stress test analysis is intended to help country authorities to identify key sources of systemic risk in the banking sector and inform macroprudential policies to enhance its resilience to absorb shocks.

This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of the banking sector and systemic risk analysis for New Zealand. The banking sector, which dominates the financial system, has significant exposure to real estate. A sharp decline in the real estate market, a prolonged period of low dairy prices, deterioration in global economic conditions, and a tightening in financial markets would adversely impact the system. Despite these risks, the banking system is resilient to severe shocks. Results of stress tests and sensitivity analysis indicate that the solvency and liquidity of the banking system can withstand adverse and severe shocks.

This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

This Technical Note sets out the findings and recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for South Africa on financial safety net and crisis-management arrangements. It primarily focuses on the arrangements for early intervention, recovery, resolution, and financial safety nets for banks in South Africa. To a lesser extent, the note also addresses issues relating to recovery and resolution applicable to insurers and Financial Market Infrastructure (FMI).

This technical note presents stress testing of banking and insurance on the Isle of Man (IOM). The stress tests for the IOM Financial Sector Assessment Program Update have been designed to yield as comprehensive and detailed a picture as possible within the constraints of the approach and available data. Stress tests have been performed both by individual institutions based on the parameters and scenarios agreed between the authorities and IMF staff, and, at an aggregate level and in many instances, by the authorities themselves.