The Turning Point In China S Economic Development

Focuses on China's long-term pattern of growth and employment, demographic shifts, and rural-urban migration, its agricultural trade and local elections, China's banking sector reform and its fiscal sustainability, its environmental concerns, and much more.

This book by influential policymaker Chi Fulin lays out in issue-oriented and detailed chapters, at a time when China is at a crossroads, exactly how the government plans to deal with the social, political and economic issues the world's second-largest economy faces. From managing the decline of industry, to urbanization, to managing consumption, to social security and education, Chi offers a roadmap for the years ahead. This book will be particularly fascinating to Western scholars of China who speculate on the inner workings of the Chinese policymaking elite, with the ambition of China's central planners here laid out for the world to see.

This book reviews and examines the reform and opening up in China from 1978 to 2011. It analyzes how China avoided to fall into the middle-income trap over those 33 years. The book makes a deep analysis of understanding how Chinese economy became a miracle in the world economic history and its development stages, as well as the overseas erroneous understanding of the existence of Chinese economy. The author analyzes from three aspects: how to break the “impossible triangle”, how to achieve middle-to-high speed growth in L model, and how to release a new dividend of urbanization. After Chinese economy entered the Lewis turning point, China faced the dilemma of labor transformation and the disappearance of demographic dividend, the demographic dividend turned to the reform dividend. The author points out and suggests that a new round of growth should be achieved by improving the total factor productivity in order to find a new way for the Chinese economy. This book plays an important role of comprehending Chinese economy under current complex economic situation. This book helps readers to understand Chinese economy from many aspects: impossible triangle, L model growth, Malthus trap, dual economy, aging problem, demographic dividend, reform dividend, trap of middle income, globalization, etc. The author as an economist aims for the public explaining the professional knowledge in a concise and easy way. This book delivers the information of discerning and understanding the economic trend, and predicting the future.

HUANG Yiping is Professor of Economics at the China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, China. He is also an adjunct professor at the Australian National University and a member of the China Finance 40 Forum. His current research focuses on macroeconomic policy, international finance and rural development. CAI Fang is Director, Professor and Fellow at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China. He serves as Vice Chairman of the China Population Association. His current research focuses on China’s labor migration, population and development, economic reform, income distribution and poverty.

This volume is concerned with labor market developments in China from a comparative perspective on selected East and South Asian countries. It closely examines the changing structure of China's labor market in the context of the Lewisisan turning point in ecomomic development.

This book by influential policymaker Chi Fulin lays out in issue-oriented and detailed chapters, at a time when China is at a crossroads, exactly how the government plans to deal with the social, political and economic issues the world's second-largest economy faces. From managing the decline of industry, to urbanization, to managing consumption, to social security and education, Chi offers a roadmap for the years ahead. This book will be particularly fascinating to Western scholars of China who speculate on the inner workings of the Chinese policymaking elite, with the ambition of China's central planners here laid out for the world to see. Fulin Chi is one of China's most influential policy thinkers. He is a research fellow, a doctoral supervisor, a member of the 11th and 12th National Committee of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Director of China Institute for Reform and Development, concurrently Vice-president of China Society of Economic Reform, Vice-president of China Society of Administrative Reform, member of the Expert Committee for the 13th National Five-Year Plan, and specially-appointed professor at a number of higher education institutions including Chinese Academy of Governance, China Executive Leadership Academy Jinggangshan, Peking University, and Zhejiang University in China and Northeastern University in the United States.

'This book is a remarkable tour de force. Joseph Chai offers a fine synthesis of thinking about the nature and origins of China's long-run economic growth and structural change. Through the meticulous use of an impressive range of sources, he explores some of the most challenging puzzles of China's economic history, such as its failure to match the modern industrial revolutions of Western Europe, or, closer to home, to rival Japan's economic transformation in the final decades of the nineteenth century. His definition of history is broad and his narrative extends down to the present day, thereby illuminating continuities and discontinuities across not only the historical divides of 1840 and 1911, but also those of 1949 and 1979. But despite its ambitious scope, Chai's analysis is authoritative, nuanced and full of detail. It will surely become necessary reading not only within the academic community of China scholars and students, but also among that even larger audience of readers seeking to understand the "rise of China".' Robert Ash, University of London, UK 'For most people interested in the contemporary Chinese economy, the story begins with Deng Xiaoping's policy of Opening and Reform in 1978. This is especially true of students from China, where modern history is still taught in a simple, politically determined framework. This situation urgently needs remedying and Joseph Chai's new book is a valuable step in this direction. Chai surveys China's economic growth from the earliest times to the present day explaining the key turning points and the intellectual puzzles that arise in this long evolution. This book will be of interest to the general reader and will be valuable as a textbook for students studying any aspect of China's current development and prospects.' Christopher Howe, University of London, UK 'Joseph Chai places the recent phase of China's spectacular economic growth in its historical context in his well-researched, interesting and accessible overview of the economic history of China. Because no similar up-to-date book is available in English, English readers will find this book particularly welcome. Valuable attributes of his exposition include analyses of various economic puzzles (for example, why did China, which was once the world's economic leader, falter, suffer economic retardation, fall behind Europe and begin its economic resurgence later than Japan?) and his thoughtful considerations of the prospects for China's future economic growth. This book is highly recommended.' Clem Tisdell, The University of Queensland, Australia As a country's current development is path dependent, the rise of China and its strategic implications can only be understood in a historical context. Hence, the key to understanding contemporary China is the understanding of its past. So far there has been an absence of a comprehensive text dealing with Chinese economic history in the English language. An Economic History of Modern China fills this important gap, focusing on modern Chinese economic growth and comprehensively surveying the patterns of China's growth experience over the past 200 years, from the Opium wars to the present day. Key events are traced back to their foundations in history to explain their impact on China's modern economic growth.

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions. This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.