The World Oil Market In The Years Ahead

Oil is hitting the headlines once again. The big increases in oil prices over the past two years are upsetting consumers and puzzling producers. The reasons are difficult to understand, since few people are familiar with the complex workings of the price regime for oil in international trade. It is said that sluggish investment is a major cause, but what are the reasons for inadequate investment in oil producing and refining plants during the last 20 years? Does oil have a future? We are told that oil production will soon peak because the rate of production is higher than replacement rates. Climate change problems are casting a shadow over the future of fossil fuels. There may, however, be a solution to the nefarious CO2 emissions in, for instance, technologies that sequestrate carbon. Oil's stronghold is the transport sector: cars, trucks, railway engines, planes, ships. The demand for oil would suffer a fatal blow if technical innovations in car engines make it possible to use an alternative fuel to petrol or diesel. New energy sources - wind, solar, tide, waves, geo-thermal - are both renewable and environment-friendly. Do they represent a threat to the future of oil? An international team of experts addresses these highly topical questions in this comprehensive volume.

Provides a brief discussion of world oil market developments since the early 1970s, identifying the fundamental characteristics and features of the market through to the end of this century. It also examines the history and current structure of world oil demand, analyzed in terms of demand for crude oil products in the various regions. A number of key factors and fundamental trends in crude oil consumption are identified, which can be expected to play an important role in future oil demand. In addition, the study provides an examination of the history and current structure of world crude oil supply, emphasizing the methodology employed in representing crude oil production, reserves additions and productive capacity development within the analytical framework. A series of sensitivity cases are presented together with the reference case crude oil market scenario generated by the integration of the demand- and supply-side analyses. Finally, the study's authors draw together the critical conclusions arising from the analysis.

Economic, environmental and security considerations have hastened the need for diversification of energy resources. While oil remains a comparatively inexpensive form of energy and enjoys great demand – and which is therefore more strategically and economically important to the majority of countries worldwide than any other energy source – its future as a major and essential source of world energy remains uncertain in light of the decline of strategic reserves and the adverse effects of fossil fuels on the climate and environmental security. This is particularly significant given the limited application of other energy resources, which are unlikely to be sufficient in meeting increasing demand stemming from population growth, ongoing urban expansion and ever-higher rates of economic and social development. It is hard to escape the conclusion that the international competition for sources of energy will be more severe and frenzied in the years ahead, and that the military dimensions of this competition will become more pronounced. These trends are likely to gain momentum so long as the worldwide demand for imported petroleum continues to grow and the supply of exportable oil fails to expand proportionately. Under these circumstances, it becomes essential to accelerate the development of alternative sources of energy and to increase the efficiency of oil-powered systems, thereby reducing the need for imports. As much as is possible, these efforts should be undertaken in a cooperative manner, so as to reduce the risk of unintended conflict over contested sources of energy. The ECSSR 16th Annual Energy Conference, The Oil Era: Emerging Challenges, held at the Center on November 8–10, 2010, and the resultant papers contained in this volume, provide a professional, academic investigation of the challenges that lie ahead for the oil age. They explore various aspects of global energy demand, determine the position of GCC producers, and discuss the relationship between oil supplies and industrialization in the 21st century. They identify the dynamics of global oil demand and their implications for producers; the future of oil geopolitics and associated challenges; recent lessons learned in the industry; future prospects for supply; and the implications of climate change for oil policies in the GCC states.

First published in 1983, this book provides a detailed look at the OPEC nations’ changing roles in the world oil market as they expanded their participation in "downstream" activities such as the hydrocarbon industries formerly controlled by the major oil companies. The authors begin with a detailed survey of world oil resources and an overview of the production capabilities and polices of major oil exporters. They then examine the contemporary refinery overcapacity crisis in the developed world, outline the refinery construction plans of the OPEC nations and the refinery scrapping problems in the industrialised world, and employ simulation tools to estimate the future output mix of refineries in key OPEC nations. A discussion of the comparative economics of refineries in the Gulf and in Europe in also included. Turning to the tanker industry, the authors project future oil export patterns and tanker demand in light of changing import/export need and OPEC’s participation in oil and refined products transport. Subsequent chapters describe OPEC’s ventures into petrochemical manufacturing and natural gas processing. The book concludes with a chapter on the future of OPEC, examining its changing power structure, the influence of non-OPEC oil production, possible future oil-pricing policies, and the opportunities and constraints that OPEC nations will meet as they expand their operations in the downstream oil industry. This book will be of interest to students of economics and Middle East and international politics.

A stronger, more informed approach to the energy markets The Energy World Is Flat provides a forward-looking analysis of the energy markets and addresses the implications of their rapid transformation. Written by acknowledged expert Daniel Lacalle, who is actively engaged with energy portfolios in the financial space, this book is grounded in experience with the world of high-stakes finance, and relays a realist's perspective of the current and future state of the energy markets. Readers will be brought up to date on the latest developments in the area, and learn the strategies that allow investors to profit from these developments. An examination of the markets' history draws parallels between past and current shifts, and a discussion of technological advancements helps readers understand the issues driving these changes. Energy has always been at the forefront of the economic agenda, being both the key to and a driver for development and growth. Its centrality to the world of finance makes it imperative for investors and analysts to understand the energy markets, irrespective of where on the wide range of energy spectrum observers they fall. The Energy World Is Flat is a guide to the past, present, and future of these crucial markets, and the strategies that make them profitable. These include: Understanding the state of the energy markets, including key developments and changes Discovering the ten pillars of a successful energy investment strategy Reviewing the history of the energy markets to put recent changes into perspective Learning which technologies are driving the changes, and how it will affect investors The recent energy market changes were both unexpected and so fundamental in nature that they represent a true shift in the energy macro- and microeconomic landscape. Investors and analysts seeking a stronger approach to these markets need the expert guidance provided by The Energy World Is Flat.