Towards Improved Forecasting Of Volcanic Eruptions

Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

Forecasting the time, place, and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the major goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. Until recently, people living in a volcano's shadow had little help anticipating an eruption. A major volcanic event might strike with no warning at all. In the past 300 years, volcanic eruptions, most of them unexpected, have killed more than 250,000 people. In 2000, experts estimated that 500 million people were living in areas at risk from catastrophic volcanic eruptions. This book describes the strides that have made in eruption forecasting in recent years and explores why accurately predicting volcanic events remains difficult. Based on the methodologies in this book, Eruption Pro 10.6, to our knowledge, it is the only software programme of its type anywhere in the world. Eruption Pro 10.6 performs analysis on current available volcano eruption data from both historical and current available eruption data, near real-time measurement data including, seismic, deformation, thermal, frequency of eruption analysis, solar & lunar influences, crater lake temperature (if applicable), COSPEC, & statistical procedures. The newest version also accounts for, albeit very small, contributions due to lunar and solar influences.

The chapters presented in this International Volcanological Special Issue consider the characteristic features of a single volcano and/or a number of volcanoes worldwide (Jos and Biu Plateau volcanic provinces, Nigeria; Kachchh Rift Zone, Gujarat, India; Guamsan Caldera, Cheongsong, Korea; Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Napoli, Italy) in terms of future volcanic activity. The technical methods used are wide, innovative, as well as classic and reflect the knowledge presented in each chapter. The last chapter, however, deals with a new conceptual and methodological approach for the evaluation of volcanic risk. All these volcanoes (except Somma-Vesuvius volcano) are poorly studied so they deserve more attention, which is the goal of this volcanological book. Further studies are welcome to deepen the knowledge of each of the volcanoes presented.

Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

Volcanic seismology represents the main, and often the only, tool to forecast volcanic eruptions and to monitor the eruption process. This book describes the main types of seismic signals at volcanoes, their nature and spatial and temporal distributions at different stages of eruptive activity. Following from the success of the first edition, published in 2003, the second edition consists of 19 chapters including significant revision and five new chapters. Organized into four sections, the book begins with an introduction to the history and topic of volcanic seismology, discussing the theoretical and experimental models that were developed for the study of the origin of volcanic earthquakes. The second section is devoted to the study of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, giving the theoretical basis for their occurrence and swarms as well as case stories of volcano-tectonic activity associated with the eruptions at basaltic, andesitic, and dacitic volcanoes. There were 40 cases of volcanic eruptions at 20 volcanoes that occurred all over the world from 1910 to 2005, which are discussed. General regularities of volcano-tectonic earthquake swarms, their participation in the eruptive process, their source properties, and the hazard of strong volcano-tectonic earthquakes are also described. The third section describes the theoretical basis for the occurrence of eruption earthquakes together with the description of volcanic tremor, the seismic signals associated with pyroclastic flows, rockfalls and lahars, and volcanic explosions, long-period and very-long-period seismic signals at volcanoes, micro-earthquake swarms, and acoustic events. The final section discuss the mitigation of volcanic hazard and include the methodology of seismic monitoring of volcanic activity, the examples of forecasting of volcanic eruptions by seismic methods, and the description of seismic activity in the regions of dormant volcanoes. This book will be essential for students and practitioners of volcanic seismology to understand the essential elements of volcanic eruptions. Provides a comprehensive overview of seismic signals at different stages of volcano eruption. Discusses dozens of case histories from around the world to provide real-world applications. Illustrations accompany detailed descriptions of volcano eruptions alongside the theories involved.

Volcanoes have terrified and, at the same time, fascinated civilizations for thousands of years. Many aspects of volcanoes, most notably the eruptive processes and the compositional variations of magma, have been widely investigated for several decades and today constitute the core of any volcanology textbook. Nevertheless, in the last two decades, boosted by the availability of volcano monitoring data, there has been an increasing interest in the pre-eruptive processes related to the shallow accumulation and to the transfer of magma approaching the surface, as well as in the resulting structure of volcanoes. These are innovative and essential aspects of modern volcanology and, as driving volcanic unrest, their understanding also improves hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. So far, the significant progress made in unravelling these volcano-tectonic processes has not been supported by a comprehensive overview. This monograph aims at filling this gap, describing the pre-eruptive processes related to the structure, deformation and tectonics of volcanoes, at the local and regional scale, in any tectonic setting. The monograph is organized into three sections (“Fundamentals”, “Magma migration towards the surface” and “The regional perspective”), consisting of thirteen chapters that are lavishly illustrated. The reader is accompanied in a journey within the volcano factory, discovering the processes associated with the shallow accumulation of magma and its transfer towards the surface, how these control the structure of volcanoes and their activity and, ultimately, improve our ability to estimate hazard and forecast eruption. The potential readership includes any academic, researcher and upper undergraduate student interested in volcanology, magma intrusions, structural geology, tectonics, geodesy, as well as geology and geophysics in general.