U S Investment Since The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Of 2017

There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment. Some argue that the business tax provisions spurred investment by cutting the cost of capital. Others see the TCJA primarily as a windfall for shareholders. We find that U.S. business investment since 2017 has grown strongly compared to pre-TCJA forecasts and that the overriding factor driving it has been the strength of expected aggregate demand. Investment has, so far, fallen short of predictions based on the postwar relation with tax cuts. Model simulations and firm-level data suggest that much of this weaker response reflects a lower sensitivity of investment to tax policy changes in the current environment of greater corporate market power. Economic policy uncertainty in 2018 played a relatively small role in dampening investment growth.

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) sharply reduced effective corporate income tax rates on equity-financed US investment. This paper examines the reform’s impact on US inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in property, plant and equipment (PPE) by foreign-owned US companies. We first model effective marginal and average tax rates (EMTRs and EATRs) by country, industry, and method of finance, and then use those tax rates to calculate the tax semi-elasticities of inbound FDI and PPE investment. We find that both PPE investment and FDI financed with retained earnings responded positively to the TCJA reform, but FDI financed with new equity or debt did not. In country-level PPE regressions, inclusion of macroeconomic controls renders tax rate coefficients insignificant, suggesting that the increase in PPE investment after TCJA was driven by general economic growth. In regressions of FDI financed with retained earnings, however, tax coefficients were robust to inclusion of macroeconomic controls. As the literature predicts, EATRs have a greater impact on cross-border investment than EMTRs. Country-by-industry regressions showed a larger effect of taxes on PPE investment than aggregate country-level regressions, but industry-level tax rates appear to have no effect on earnings retention.

This paper assesses the landmark Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), from the perspective of both the U.S. itself and the wider world. The reform has many positive aspects including steps to broaden the base of, and reduce marginal rates under, the personal income tax (PIT), reduce distortions to investment and financing decisions, and mitigate outward profit shifting. But the TCJA has a large fiscal price tag and leaves significant uncertainty as to how the U.S. tax system will develop. The PIT changes could have better targeted relief at low earners, and there is scope to more fully address distortions in business taxation. The novel international provisions create a complex array of both positive and negative international spillovers, and have the potential to significantly reshape the wider international tax system.

This study examines the effect of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on capital investment, labor investment, and the productivity of foreign subsidiaries of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs). Proponents of the TCJA argue it decreased foreign investment by leveling the playing field between U.S. MNCs and foreign-owned corporations. However, policymakers are currently debating international tax reform, arguing that the TCJA incentivizes foreign investment. My study informs this debate by providing empirical evidence on the TCJA's effect on foreign investment and productivity. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that after the TCJA, U.S.-owned foreign subsidiaries invest 13.1 percent less in capital and 1.3 percent less in labor relative to subsidiaries owned by non-U.S. MNCs. I also find these reductions are positively associated with subsidiary-level productivity, suggesting that the TCJA alleviates inefficiencies of the previous tax regime.

Impact of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on investments -- How the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed tax rates imposed on individual investors -- How the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed treatment of capital gains -- How the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed tax credits and deductions claimed by investors -- Impact of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on real estate investments -- Impact of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S.-based multinational companies.

There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment. Some argue that the business tax provisions spurred investment by cutting the cost of capital. Others see the TCJA primarily as a windfall for shareholders. We find that U.S. business investment since 2017 has grown strongly compared to pre-TCJA forecasts and that the overriding factor driving it has been the strength of expected aggregate demand. Investment has, so far, fallen short of predictions based on the postwar relation with tax cuts. Model simulations and firm-level data suggest that much of this weaker response reflects a lower sensitivity of investment to tax policy changes in the current environment of greater corporate market power. Economic policy uncertainty in 2018 played a relatively small role in dampening investment growth.