World Water And Food To 2025

A thirsty world; Alternative futures for water; Consequences of key policy changes; Implications for the future.

Presents two alternative scenarios of water demand and supply for 118 countries over the 1990 to 2025 period and develops indicators of water scarcity for each country and for the world as a whole. This study is the first step in IWMI’s long-term research goal: to determine the extent and depth of water scarcity, its consequences for individual countries and what can be done about it.

The world is on the brink of the greatest crisis it has ever faced: a spiraling lack of fresh water. Groundwater is drying up, even as water demands for food production, for energy, and for manufacturing are surging. Water is already emerging as a headline geopolitical issue—and worsening water security will soon have dire consequences in many parts of the global economic system. Directed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon at the 2008 Davos Annual Meeting, the World Economic Forum assembled the world’s foremost group of public, private, non-governmental-organization and academic experts to examine the water crisis issue from all perspectives. The result of their work is this forecast—a stark, non-technical overview of where we will be by 2025 if we take a business-as-usual approach to (mis)managing our water resources. The findings are shocking. Perhaps equally stunning are the potential solutions and the recommendations that the group presents. All are included in this landmark publication. Water Security contains compelling commentary from leading decision-makers, past and present. The commentary is supported by analysis from leading academics of how the world economy will be affected if world leaders cannot agree on solutions. The book suggests how business and politics need to manage the energy-food-water-climate axis as leaders negotiate the details of the climate regime that replace Kyoto Protocols.

A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial over- or under-estimation. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, over-projected current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.

With a rapidly expanding economy many changes are taking place in India today. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes the continuation of current trends of key water demand drivers, will meet the future food demand. However, it leads to a severe regional water crisis by 2050, where many river basins will reach closure, will be physically water-scarce and will have regions with severely overexploited groundwater resources. While the alternative scenarios of water demand show both optimistic and pessimistic water futures, the scenario with additional productivity growth is the most optimistic, with significant scope for reducing future water demand.

The year 2007 could perhaps accurately be described as the year when climate change finally received the attention that this challenge deserves globally. Much of the information and knowledge that was created in this field during the year was the result of the findings of the Fourth - sessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which were disseminated on a large scale and reported extensively by the media. This was the result not only of a heightened interest on the part of the public on various aspects of climate change, but also because the IPCC itself proactively attempted to spread the findings of its AR4 to the public at large. The interest generated on the scientific realities of climate change was further enhanced by the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC and former Vice President of the US, Al Gore. By taking this decision in favour of a leader who has done a great deal to create awareness on c- mate change, and a body that assesses all scientific aspects of climate change and disseminates the result of its findings, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has clearly drawn the link between climate change and peace in the world.

Using the experiences of large water infrastructure projects involving the transfer of water from basins considered to have surplus water to those where the demand for water has exceeded or is expected to exceed supplies, this book examines case studies within diverse geographical, climatic, economic, and policy regimes.