18th International Probabilistic Workshop

This volume presents the proceedings of the 18th International Probabilistic Workshop (IPW), which was held in Guimarães, Portugal in May 2021. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.

This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.

The mathematical verification of the safety of structures can be done by determining the probability of failure or by using safety elements. Observed damages and collapses are usually assessed within the framework of expert reports, which seems reasonable due to the large number of unique structures in the construction industry. However, there should also be an examination of observed safety across all structures. Therefore, in this book the collapse frequencies are determined for different types of structures, such as bridges, dams, tunnels, retaining structures and buildings. The collapse frequency, like the failure probability, belongs to stochasticity. Therefore, the observed mean collapse frequencies and the calculated mean failure probabilities are compared. This comparison shows that the collapse frequencies are usually lower than the calculated failure probabilities. In addition, core damage frequencies and probabilities are given to extend the comparison to another technical product.