A Natural Introduction To Probability Theory

Compactly written, but nevertheless very readable, appealing to intuition, this introduction to probability theory is an excellent textbook for a one-semester course for undergraduates in any direction that uses probabilistic ideas. Technical machinery is only introduced when necessary. The route is rigorous but does not use measure theory. The text is illustrated with many original and surprising examples and problems taken from classical applications like gambling, geometry or graph theory, as well as from applications in biology, medicine, social sciences, sports, and coding theory. Only first-year calculus is required.

Compactly written, but nevertheless very readable, appealing to intuition, this introduction to probability theory is an excellent textbook for a one-semester course for undergraduates in any direction that uses probabilistic ideas. Technical machinery is only introduced when necessary. The route is rigorous but does not use measure theory. The text is illustrated with many original and surprising examples and problems taken from classical applications like gambling, geometry or graph theory, as well as from applications in biology, medicine, social sciences, sports, and coding theory. Only first-year calculus is required.

One of the most distinguished probability theorists in the world rigorously explains the basic probabilistic concepts while fostering an intuitive understanding of random phenomena.

The nature of probability theory. The sample space. Elements of combinatorial analysis. Fluctuations in coin tossing and random walks. Combination of events. Conditional probability, stochastic independence. The binomial and the Poisson distributions. The Normal approximation to the binomial distribution. Unlimited sequences of Bernoulli trials. Random variables, expectation. Laws of large numbers. Integral valued variables, generating functions. Compound distributions. Branching processes. Recurrent events. Renewal theory. Random walk and ruin problems. Markov chains. Algebraic treatment of finite Markov chains. The simplest time-dependent stochastic processes. Answer to problems. Index.

Extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Exercises foster problem-solving skills, and all problems feature step-by-step solutions. 1997 edition.

This book provides a clear and straightforward introduction to applications of probability theory with examples given in the biological sciences and engineering. The first chapter contains a summary of basic probability theory. Chapters two to five deal with random variables and their applications. Topics covered include geometric probability, estimation of animal and plant populations, reliability theory and computer simulation. Chapter six contains a lucid account of the convergence of sequences of random variables, with emphasis on the central limit theorem and the weak law of numbers. The next four chapters introduce random processes, including random walks and Markov chains illustrated by examples in population genetics and population growth. This edition also includes two chapters which introduce, in a manifestly readable fashion, the topic of stochastic differential equations and their applications.