A Sensitivity Analysis Of World Oil Prices

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Energy Modelling Studies and Conservation documents the proceedings of seminar of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe held in Washington D.C., on 24-28 March 1980. The volume begins with a Seminar Theme Paper that identifies background policy issues that lead to modeling; discusses points of view involved in energy policy modeling; defines the context of a set of energy conservation problems or questions being analyzed; and provides a forward-looking view of the subject and its problems. This is followed by 54 papers that are organized into three main topics: (1) energy models of major interest to individual countries; (2) the interaction between energy conservation measures and the economy; and (3) the international aspects of energy conservation models. The papers on Topic 1 cover forecasting methodologies, demand and conservation studies, and electricity and supply studies. The papers on Topic 2 present the experiences in countries such as Norway, UK, the USSR, and US. The papers on Topic 3 include studies on energy conservation policies in France, Germany, and Italy; and the MARKAL multi-period linear programming model for joint research and development in the field of new energy technologies of the 17 countries of the International Energy Agency.