Against Prediction

From random security checks at airports to the use of risk assessment in sentencing, actuarial methods are being used more than ever to determine whom law enforcement officials target and punish. And with the exception of racial profiling on our highways and streets, most people favor these methods because they believe they’re a more cost-effective way to fight crime. In Against Prediction, Bernard E. Harcourt challenges this growing reliance on actuarial methods. These prediction tools, he demonstrates, may in fact increase the overall amount of crime in society, depending on the relative responsiveness of the profiled populations to heightened security. They may also aggravate the difficulties that minorities already have obtaining work, education, and a better quality of life—thus perpetuating the pattern of criminal behavior. Ultimately, Harcourt shows how the perceived success of actuarial methods has begun to distort our very conception of just punishment and to obscure alternate visions of social order. In place of the actuarial, he proposes instead a turn to randomization in punishment and policing. The presumption, Harcourt concludes, should be against prediction.

This SpringerBrief focuses on modeling and power evaluation of high-speed craft. The various power prediction methods, a principal design objective for high-speed craft of displacement, semi-displacement, and planing type, are addressed. At the core of the power prediction methods are mathematical models for resistance and propulsion efficiency. The models are based on the experimental data of various high-speed hull and propeller series. The regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used as an extraction tool for this kind of mathematical models. A variety of mathematical models of this type are discussed in the book. Once these mathematical models have been developed and validated, they can be readily programmed into software tools, thereby enabling the parametric analyses required for the optimization of a high-speed craft design. This book provides the foundational reference for these software tools, and their use in the design of high-speed craft. High-speed craft are very different from conventional ships. Current professional literature leaves a gap in the documentation of best design practices for high-speed craft. This book is aimed at naval architects who design and develop various types of high-speed vessels.

This innovative book brings together two disciplines — science and art — and enables readers to produce their own computer-generated displays. 44 colour plates and 200 black and white pictures showcase the diagrams that can easily be reproduced using the accompanying CD-ROM. It is possible to create diagrams that indicate predictability or unpredictability of physical, chemical, ecological, mathematical or economic systems. Grey levels and colours indicate the stability of a predictable system, or the extent of unpredictability. In addition, diagrams can be drawn purely for their aesthetic value. Directed both at scientists and laymen, technicians and artists, this combination of book and CD-ROM is the first of its kind. Contents:The Useful and the BeautifulThe “Object Trouvé” in MathematicsThe Mondrian ExperimentsAn Anecdotal Report on ChaosA Case Submitted to CourtCalculations of the “Charts for Prediction and Chance” (λ-Diagrams)The Significance of Discrete MapsMaps with Scientific ApplicationsMaps of Generic SignificanceAre the λ-Diagrams Fractals?What Can We Learn from λ-Diagrams?Appendices:Informal GlossaryAbbreviationsInstructions for the CD-ROM (λ-Diagrams on Your PC) Readership: Laymen, scientists, computer technicians and computer artists. Suitable for use as an undergraduate textbook in computational science or in computer art. Keywords:Computer Art;Chaos;Do-It-Yourself;Stability and InstabilityKey Features:Includes a CD-ROM that contains easy-to-understand instructions for drawing diagrams, both for the scientist and for the artistContains hundreds of examples of visually stunning diagrams, both in black and white and in colorReviews:“… if you enjoy computer-generated art and mathematics then this would be an interesting book.”IEEE Electrical Insulation Magazine

This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.