An Ex Ante Analysis Of The Impact And Cost Effectiveness Of Biofortified High Provitamin A And High Iron Banana In Uganda

Uganda has made notable progress in reducing micronutrient deficiencies in recent years, but the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and anemia among children under 5 remain unacceptably high. According to World Health Organization criteria, VAD remains a public health problem in Uganda, and anemia is a severe problem. In this paper we explore the potential contribution to reducing both of these deficiencies using a genetically modified, high–provitamin A and high-iron banana (HPVAHIB) that is currently being developed. We present an ex ante analysis of the costs and nutritional benefits of HPVAHIB. Using the Ugandan National Household Survey of 2005/06, we analyzed the production and consumption patterns of highland cooking banana (nakinyika) and sweet banana (sukalindizi). Informed by the empirical findings, we developed geographically differentiated adoption, production, consumption, and diffusion patterns for several types of HPVAHIB. Based on households’ reported quantities of each type of banana currently consumed, we estimated the number of people consuming each banana and the quantities they consume, and then simulated the additional intakes of vitamin A and iron and estimated the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) saved attributable to each. Combining the health impacts with the estimated costs of the project, three impact measures of the HPVAHIB are developed: the cost per DALY saved, the benefit–cost ratio, and the internal rate of return. Eighteen scenarios are estimated. The base scenario, which includes only the biofortification of cooking banana with provitamin A at a level equal to 400 percent its intrinsic provitamin A content, estimates that the net present cost per DALY saved of HPVAHIB is US$62, its benefit–cost ratio is 16, and its internal rate of return is 31 percent. According to criteria established by the World Health Organization and the World Bank, the HPVAHIB project is a “very cost-effective” health intervention.

Governments play a key role in supporting populations affected by natural disasters, including rebuilding infrastructure to ensure continued services and scaling-up public safety nets to prevent widespread hunger and poverty. However, the traditional approach of limiting greater spending to the aftermath of a disaster has many drawbacks. External support from bilateral or multilateral donors can be slow and unreliable. Private sector reinsurance can be prohibitively expensive. And reallocating budgets toward recovery and reconstruction is typically a slow process that can even hurt long-term development by drawing resources away from effective programs. Some countries are trying to mitigate this liability by banding together and creating sovereign catastrophe risk pools that allow governments to coordinate with one another to insure their uncertain fiscal liabilities at lower cost. Countries contribute to the pool, which then provides payments if an insured natural disaster strikes. The African Risk Capacity (ARC), has been proposed as a pan-Africa drought risk pool to insure against drought risk in Africa south of the Sahara. If fully operationalized, the ARC will mark a major change in how donors fund emergency support to countries in Africa during times of need. In this paper, we undertake a cost-benefit analysis of the ARC pool and discuss how lessons can inform the design of the ARC.

After the United Nations adopted the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to "end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all," researchers and policy makers highlighted the importance of targeted investment in science, technology, and innovation (STI) to make tangible progress. Science, Technology, and Innovation for Sustainable Development Goals showcases the roles that STI solutions can play in meeting on-the-ground socio-economic and environmental challenges among domestic and international organizations concerned with the SDGs in three overlapping areas: agriculture, health, and environment/energy. Authors and researchers from 31 countries tackle both big-picture questions, such as scaling up the adoption and diffusion of new sustainable technologies, and specific, localized case studies, focusing on developing and middle-income countries and specific STI solutions and policies. Issues addressed include renewable energy, automated vehicles, vaccines, digital health, agricultural biotechnology, and precision agriculture. In bringing together diverse voices from both policy and academic spheres, this volume provides practical and relevant insights and advice to support policy makers and managers seeking to enhance the roles of STI in sustainable development.

security effects (investment effects) and through more efficient input use due to enhanced tradability of the land (factor intensity effect), empirical studies on the size and magnitude of these effects are very scarce. Taking advantage of a unique quasi-experimental survey design, this study analyzes the productivity impacts of the Ethiopian land certification program by identifying how the investment effects (technological gains) would measure up against the benefits from any improvements in input use intensity (technical efficiency). For this purpose, we adopted a data envelopment analysis–based Malmquist-type productivity index to decompose productivity differences into (1) within-group farm efficiency differences, reflecting the technical efficiency effect, and (2) differences in the group production frontier, reflecting the long-term investment (technological) effects. The results show that farms without a land use certificate are, on aggregate, less productive than those with formalized use rights. We found no evidence to suggest this productivity difference is due to inferior technical efficiency. Rather, the reason is down to technological advantages, or a favorable investment effect, from which farm plots with a land use certificate benefit when evaluated against farms not included in the certification program. The low level of within-group efficiency of farms in each group reinforces the argument that certification programs need to be accompanied by complementary measures such as an improved financial and legal institutional framework in order to achieve the promised effects.

In developing countries, all too often policies formulated in response to high food prices are inspired by ideology instead of evidence-based policy research. We look at the immediate effects of these shocks faced by households in Uganda on their poverty and well-being. In addition, we look at the economywide impact in the long run when all markets have settled at a new equilibrium. We find that in the short run, poverty has increased substantially. However, in the longer run, we find welfare levels of rural farm households in particular to rise sharply, primarily as a result of increased returns to farm labor and agricultural land coupled with improved market prices for output sold. These results call for policies that aim to protect the most vulnerable against high food prices and extreme volatility in the short run, without eliminating the incentives of steadily rising commodity prices for longer-run structural agricultural development.

Knowledge of actual poverty prevalence is important for any society concerned with improving public welfare and reducing poverty. In this paper, we calculate and compare the poverty incidence rate in China using four nationally representative surveys: the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) of 2010, the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) of 2010, the Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS) of 2011, and the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) of 2007. Using both international and official domestic poverty standards, we show that poverty prevalence at the national, rural, and urban levels based on the CFPS, CGSS, and the CHFS are much higher than the official estimation and those based on the CHIP. The study highlights the importance of using independent datasets to validate official statistics of public and policy concern in contemporary China.

Many development programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve investments in human capital consider women’s empowerment a key pathway by which to achieve impact and often target women as their main beneficiaries. Despite this, women’s empowerment dimensions are often not rigorously measured and are at times merely assumed. This paper starts by reflecting on the concept and measurement of women’s empowerment and then reviews some of the structural interventions that aim to influence underlying gender norms in society and eradicate gender discrimination. It then proceeds to review the evidence of the impact of three types of interventions—cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs—on women’s empowerment, nutrition, or both. Qualitative evidence on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs generally points to positive impacts on women’s empowerment, although quantitative research findings are more heterogenous. CCT programs produce mixed results on long-term nutritional status, and very limited evidence exists of their impacts on micronutrient status. The little evidence available on unconditional cash transters (UCT) indicates mixed impacts on women’s empowerment and positive impacts on nutrition; however, recent reviews comparing CCT and UCT programs have found little difference in terms of their effects on stunting and they have found that conditionality is less important than other factors, such as access to healthcare and child age and sex. Evidence of cash transfer program impacts depending on the gender of the transfer recipient or on the conditionality is also mixed, although CCTs with non-health conditionalities seem to have negative impacts on nutritional status. The impacts of programs based on the gender of the transfer recipient show mixed results, but almost no experimental evidence exists of testing gender-differentiated impacts of a single program. Agricultural interventions—specifically home gardening and dairy projects—show mixed impacts on women’s empowerment measures such as time, workload, and control over income; but they demonstrate very little impact on nutrition. Implementation modalities are shown to determine differential impacts in terms of empowerment and nutrition outcomes. With regard to the impact of microfinance on women’s empowerment, evidence is also mixed, although more recent reviews do not find any impact on women’s empowerment. The impact of microfinance on nutritional status is mixed, with no evidence of impact on micronutrient status. Across all three types of programs (cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs), very little evidence exists on pathways of impact, and evidence is often biased toward a particular region. The paper ends with a discussion of the findings and remaining evidence gaps and an outline of recommendations for research.

Highland Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated regions of Africa and has long been associated with both Malthusian disasters and Boserupian agricultural intensification. This paper explores the race between these two countervailing forces, with the goal of informing two important policy questions. First, how do rural Ethiopians adapt to land constraints? And second, do land constraints significantly influence welfare outcomes in rural Ethiopia? To answer these questions we use a recent household survey of high-potential areas. We first show that farm sizes are generally very small in the Ethiopian highlands and declining over time, with young rural households facing particularly severe land constraints. We then ask whether smaller and declining farm sizes are inducing agricultural intensification, and if so, how. We find strong evidence in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis that land-constrained villages typically use significantly more purchased input costs per hectare and more family labor, and achieve higher maize and teff yields and high gross income per hectare. However, although these higher inputs raise gross revenue, we find no substantial impact of greater land constraints on net farm income per hectare once family labor costs are accounted for. Moreover, farm sizes are strongly positively correlated with net farm income, suggesting that land constraints are an important cause of rural poverty. We conclude with some broad policy implications of our results.