An Independent Assessment Of The Navy S 30 Year Shipbuilding Plan

An independent assessment of the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan : hearing before the Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces of the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, One Hundred Thirteenth Congress, first session, hearing held October 23, 2013.

Discusses the U.S. Navy¿s proposed FY 2010 budget requests funding for eight new Navy ships. This total includes two relatively expensive, high-capability combatant ships (a Virginia-class attack submarine and a DDG-51 class Aegis destroyer) and six relatively inexpensive ships (three Littoral Combat Ships [LCSs], two TAKE-1 auxiliary dry cargo ships, and one Joint High Speed Vessel [JHSV]). Concerns about the Navy¿s prospective ability to afford its long-range shipbuilding plan, combined with year-to-year changes in Navy shipbuilding plans and significant cost growth and other problems in building certain new Navy ships, have led to concerns about the status of Navy shipbuilding and the potential future size and capabilities of the fleet. Illus.

The current and planned size and composition of the Navy, the rate of Navy ship procurement, and the prospective affordability of the Navy's shipbuilding plans have been oversight matters for the congressional defense committees for many years. On December 15, 2016, the Navy released a new force-structure goal that calls for achieving and maintaining a fleet of 355 ships of certain types and numbers. Key points about this new 355-ship force-level goal include the following: -- The 355-ship force-level goal is the result of a new Force Structure Assessment (FSA) conducted by the Navy. An FSA is an analysis in which the Navy solicits inputs from U.S. regional combatant commanders (CCDRs) regarding the types and amounts of Navy capabilities that CCDRs deem necessary for implementing the Navy's portion of the national military strategy, and then translates those CCDR inputs into required numbers of ships, using current and projected Navy ship types. The analysis takes into account Navy capabilities for both warfighting and day-to-day forward-deployed presence. The Navy conducts an FSA every few years, as circumstances require, to determine its force-structure goal. -- The new 355-ship force-level goal replaces a 308-ship force-level goal that the Navy released in March 2015. The actual size of the Navy in recent years has generally been between 270 and 290 ships. -- The figure of 355 ships appears close to an objective of building toward a fleet of 350 ships that was announced by the Trump campaign organization during the 2016 presidential election campaign. The 355-ship goal, however, reflects the national security strategy and national military strategy that were in place in 2016 (i.e., the Obama Administration's national security strategy and national military strategy). A January 27, 2017, national security presidential memorandum on rebuilding the U.S. armed forces signed by President Trump states: "Upon transmission of a new National Security Strategy to Congress, the Secretary [of Defense] shall produce a National Defense Strategy (NDS). The goal of the NDS shall be to give the President and the Secretary maximum strategic flexibility and to determine the force structure necessary to meet requirements." -- Although the 355-ship plan includes 47 more ships than the previous 308-ship plan, CRS notionally estimates that achieving and maintaining the 355-ship fleet could require adding 57 to 67 ships, including 19 attack submarines and 23 large surface combatants, to the Navy's FY2017 30-year shipbuilding plan, unless the Navy extends the service lives of existing ships beyond currently planned figures and/or reactivates recently retired ships. -- CRS estimates that procuring the 57 to 67 ships that might need to be added the 30-year shipbuilding plan to achieve and maintain a 355-ship fleet - a total that equates an average of about 1.9 to 2.2 additional ships per year over the 30-year period - could cost an average of roughly $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion per year in additional shipbuilding funds over the 30-year period, using today's shipbuilding costs. These additional shipbuilding funds are only a fraction of the total additional cost that would be needed to achieve and maintain a 355-ship fleet instead of 308-ship fleet. -- If defense spending in coming years is not increased above the caps established in the Budget Control Act of 2011, or BCA (S. 365/P.L. 112-25 of August 2, 2011), as amended, achieving and maintaining a 355-ship fleet could require reducing funding levels for other DOD programs. -- Navy officials have stated that, in general, the shipbuilding industrial base has the capacity to take on the additional shipbuilding work needed to achieve and maintain a 355-ship fleet, and that building toward the 355-ship goal sooner rather than later would be facilitated by ramping up production of existing ship designs rather than developing and then starting production of new designs.

The subcommittee is familiar with the Navy's goal for a fleet of 313 ships. The 30-year plan presents a new and slightly revised goal for a fleet of about 310 to 316 ships. This slightly revised goal is an interim number that may be refined further when the Navy completes its force structure assessment. Navy officials have testified at least twice this year that a Navy of more than 500 ships would be required to fully meet combatant commander requests for Navy forces. The difference between a fleet of 500 ships and a fleet of about 310 to 316 can be viewed as one measure of the operational risks associated with the goal of a fleet of about 310 to 316 ships. A goal for a fleet of more than 500 ships might be viewed as a fiscally unconstrained goal.

This is an independent analysis of the Navy's latest shipbuilding plan. This study summarizes the ship inventory goals and purchases described in the Navy's FY 2012 plan and assesses their implications for the Navy's funding needs and ship inventories through 2041. The Navy currently envisions buying a total of 275 ships during the next 30 years at an average annual cost of nearly $16 billion (in 2011 dollars) for new construction alone or a little more than $17 billion for total shipbuilding. By comparison, this report estimates that the cost of the Navy¿s plan will average $18 billion per year for new construction or $20 billion per year for total shipbuilding. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.

The current and planned size and composition of the Navy, the rate of Navy ship procurement, and the prospective affordability of the Navy's shipbuilding plans have been oversight matters for the congressional defense committees for many years. The Navy's proposed FY2018 budget, as amended on May 24, 2017, requests the procurement of nine new ships, including one Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) class aircraft carrier, two Virginia-class attack submarines, two DDG-51 class destroyers, two Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs), one TAO-205 class oiler, and one towing, salvage, and rescue ship. On December 15, 2016, the Navy released a new force-structure goal that calls for achieving and maintaining a fleet of 355 ships of certain types and numbers. Key points about this new 355-ship force-level goal include the following: The 355-ship force-level goal is the result of a Force Structure Assessment (FSA) conducted by the Navy in 2016. The Navy conducts an FSA every few years, as circumstances require, to determine its force-structure goal. The new 355-ship force-level goal replaces a 308-ship force-level goal that the Navy released in March 2015. The actual size of the Navy in recent years has generally been between 270 and 290 ships. The figure of 355 ships appears close to an objective of building toward a fleet of 350 ships that was announced by the Trump campaign organization during the 2016 presidential election campaign. The 355-ship goal, however, reflects the national security strategy and national military strategy that were in place in 2016 (i.e., the Obama Administration's national security strategy and national military strategy), while the Trump campaign organization's 350-ship goal appears to have a different origin. Compared to the previous 308-ship force-level goal, the new 355-ship force-level goal includes 47 additional ships, or about 15% more ships. More than 47 ships, however, would need to be added to the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan to achieve and maintain the Navy's 355-ship fleet, unless the Navy extends the service lives of existing ships beyond currently planned figures and/or reactivates recently retired ships: CRS estimates that 57 to 67 ships would need to be added to the Navy's FY2017 30-year (FY2017-FY2046) shipbuilding plan to achieve the Navy's 355-ship fleet and maintain it through the end of the 30-year period (i.e., through FY2046).